Max Scherzer's missing K's

27.9, 23.5, 23.0, 20.0. Those numbers are Max Scherzer's falling K% by year, from 2008 to the present. I'm willing to concede that a bit of the change is from the NL to AL transition, but the different between this year and last is the biggest thing to me.

After pitching quite well in only 56 innings in 2008 to the tune of 3.05/3.33/3.16 ERA/FIP/xFIP line and struck out a magnificent 10.6 K/9, Schezer broke camp with the D-backs in 2009 and started 30 games for them. He pitched decently well, and his 4.12/3.87/3.82 line accurately portrays his season, still with a great 9.19 K/9

After the trade to the Tigers, Scherzer had an up and down year in 2010, even being demoted to AAA at one point. His final season line looks quite well 3.50/3.71/3.68. He dipped to a 8.46 K/9 however.

This year paints a slight different picture. Schezer has fanned a mere 7.75 K/9. His corresponding stats have once again inflated, and he currently sits at 4.28/4.10/3.82. Certainly useful, but still alarms must be raised. Having just turned 27, the Tigers would hope to see him take strides forward, not regress backwards.

To me, the issue is that his falling K rate is directly proportional to his rising ERA/FIP/xFIP. I'm going to see if I can find out exactly what is happening. I'll be looking at 2010 and 2011 data exclusively here, as I believe the difference from 09 to 10 to be neglibible. To the data!

In 2010, Pitch f/x claims Max Scherzer was a 3 pitch man, Four-seamer, Slider, Changeup. This matches his scouting report. We'll assume his 2 FA are mis-labeled four-seamers, and will be added to the numbers. The very top chart is what I'm interested, at least one tab of it.

Pitch Type	Pitch #	Swing%	Whiff%
Four-Seamer	2013	42.0%	6.3%
Change-Up	66	58.0%	13.8%
Slider	501	44.3%	17.6%

Still strong whiff numbers, no? Here is Scherer's 2011 pitch data.

Pitch Type	Pitch #	Swing%	Whiff%
Four-Seamer	1373	42.3%	6.4%
Change-Up	430	54.7%	12.8%
Slider	419	49.9%	17.9%

I'm just as confused as you are. Damn near identical numbers. His swing and whiff rates from this change-up to his slider negate each others change. So what we have here is the essentially the same rates 12.6% Whiff in 2010, to 12.4% this year. This cannot explain the large drop in K% and K/9.

So what gives? I had to turn to his lovely FanGraphs player page. The first thing I looked for was velocity, and across the board he is throwing slower this year than he ever has. His Four-Seamer sits at 92.8 mph, the lowest of his career. Likewise his Slider at 81.6 mph, and his changeup at 81.7 mph. Each of those speeds are below his career average, not just 2010. But even just this dip in velocity still doesn't serve to explain the why the problem remains.

Scherzer's swinging rates and strike rates are nearly identical, but the strikeouts haven't been there. Despite all my research, I'm still befuddled. I'm taking a break for now, but I'll be back by the end of the day to look at his 2-strike counts. Maybe he can get strikes early, but can't finish the batter off. Thats my early hypothesis, but let's see if it holds water.

***

Alright, I'm back with Part II of my analysis, I'm also watching Hook, so if there's a few typos, sue me.

Here is all of Scherzer's 2-strike counts from 2010

Pitch Type	Pitch #	Swing%	Whiff%
Four-Seamer	513	59.6%	8.8%
Change-Up	212	66.4%	17.9%
Slider	103	57.9%	14.1%

And his 2-strike counts from 2011 so far

Pitch Type	Pitch #	Swing%	Whiff%
Four-Seamer	304	57.5%	7.8%
Change-Up	167	62.5%	17.7%
Slider	126	64.1%	8.5%

Obviously what pops out is not only the number of sliders, but the effectiveness of them as well. This year in 2-strike counts, Scherzer is going to his slider more often, to a less beneficial result. As noted above, in 2011 his Slider is still effective, but not even 1/3 of what it was in 2010. More sliders throw, more swung at, but a smaller number of whiffs than ever before? Hmm...we might have it.

My final analysis is that Scherzer has lost an average of 1.5 MPH on each of his 3 pitches. This decline in velocity has led him to throw his four-seamer and change-up less, and thus in turn, more sliders this year. And the hitters know it. If I were the Tigers, I would have the catchers and coaches sit down with Max and ask him if he feels comfortable throwing more change-ups in 2-strike counts, as so far this year it has been his best strike out pitch. This year hitters have hammered his fastball, and are sitting on his slider. His ticket back to the upper echelon of K% pitchers is his change-up.

Tables compliments of Tableizer!

NL Prospect Primer

And finally, after far too long, here is my take on some of the up n comers for the NL. You can expect some of these guys to be owned already, but I'll try and cover some relative unknowns as well.

Julio Tehran - Atlanta Braves, SP
Thus far in AAA, he is striking out a few less batters in previous years, just 7.8 k/9, but is barely walking anyone either. He sports a BB/9 rate of just 2.5, his best since A+ ball. He has a strong mid 90's four seamer that can touch 96. His curve is above average, and so is his changeup. There have been talks about him tipping pitches, and it is noticable in his arm speed from his four seamer to his changeup. I'd expect him to work out of the 'Pen this year, ala Price for the Rays in 2009. Going into 2012, I suppose you could take a flyer on him, but wait until the 4th tier pitchers start going, unless you're in a keeper league of course. My personal major league comp would be a right handed Ted Lilly. Useful, but not a star. Baseball America loves him, so does BP, but I just don't see it. Not until he refines his delivery will he ever live up to his expectations.

ETA: September call up, breaks camp with Braves in 2012. All keeper leagues should own him. Any redraft you can ignore him til next year.

Devin Mesoraco - Cincinnati Reds, Catcher.
Wow. After his metoric rise in 2010 where he jumped 3 levels A+ to AA to AAA, his stock still continues to rise. Pre-2011, Baseball America had him at 64, with questions about his health and ability to stay behind the dish. So far in 2011, he has caught 69 games, and DH'd another 17. The Red's don't have a DH* and they have some guy named Votto currently manning 1B. I would expect the Reds to hope and pray that Mesoraco can stick behind the plate. With another hot prospect in Yasmani Grandal behind him and hoping to also catch for the big league club, it seems as though Mesoraco has overcome all doubts about his game. In 366 PA, his triple slash is .309/.383/.512. He has 10 homers, and 32, yes, 32 doubles already. As a Catcher. What? He even has 2 triples. With the straight platoon of Hanigan and Hernandez, I figure that Mesoraco won't be up this year, but next year he should break camp with the club and probably sticks there for life. Hernandez doesn't have a contract next year, and Hanigan profiles as a career backup. Call him Weiters 2.0, but this time the sequel is better than the original. Keep an eye on this kid.

*NL should join the 21st century and get the DH already. Pitchers are pitchers, not hitters. Nuff said.

ETA: cup of coffee in September, probably is the Catcher of the future in Cincinnati. A must own in all leagues in 2012.

Pedro Alvarez - Pittsburgh Pirates, OF
Baseball American had him as the 8th best prospect going into the this season? What's happened? Well, what we've seen from Alvarez is right in line with his scouting reports. Prodigious power, pull happy approach, significant uppercut swing. Multiple holes in his swing, struggles against lefty. Figure him Jack Cust, in prospect form. 3 true out comes for this guy sounds about right. He's currently in AAA, but I expect him to be back soon. He's already owned in almost 40% of Yahoo! leagues, which to me, is too high. People are still high on his name value alone. There comes a certain point in which we have to stop believing in prospects. I think this time the scouts proved to be prophetic. They had this guy pegged since A ball. If you own him, sell high on his name. You can pick him up if you're desperate for HR, but expect a big hit in your AVG. On the other hand, if you're in an OPB league, he could be a nice find. I still say to proceed with caution. If he ever fixes his swing, then he could be a significant threat. I think he's just been coasting on pure talent until this year. Which is both a pro and a con, few make it this far on raw talent. If his head matches his body's ability, then I'll be drafting him, until then? I'm staying away.

ETA: Next week? He's working out swing issues in AAA, but I'm not touching this guy. Maybe a top 75 OF next year...maybe. I'll pass, and I reccommend you do too.

Jaff Decker - San Diego Padres, LF
Rated #82 in BA's 2010 picks, he was left off completely in 2011. Scouts judged him to be fat and unathletic, too bad they were only half right. When drafted, yes, he had a little pudge to him, but he has recently slimmed downed. How the scouts ever doubted his athletcisim is beyond me. This guy can flat out hit. He's currently in his first go around in AA and his triple slash .223/.382/.408 says it all. Low average, low contact, high OPB. What this doesn't show is Decker's power. He's got 14 jacks and 16 doubles and even a pair of triples just for fun. He'll never be Matt Holliday, but he's about a dead ringer for Matt Stairs, in body type, hitter profile, and defensive...concern. With almost a 25% BB rate, Decker's pitch recognition and plate discipline is second to none. Not your proto-typical person to make a prospect primer, I nonetheless have my eye on this kid. I think he can produce a .255/.390/.490 at the major league level. What hurts him is scouting stereotypes and his home MLB Park. He would do well to be traded to an AL team. I think he's got 3 seasons of LF in him, then they have to move him to 1B or even DH. Will he hit to compensate the DH penalty? I think this guy has flown under the rader enough that we don't know, but I wouldn't bet against him.

Jarrod Parker - Arizona Diamondbacks, SP
He has been ranked in the top 50 of Baseball America every year from 2008-2011, 46, 29, 36 and 33. What does he have to offer that has scouts so dazzled? After having TJS, he has comeback exquisitely. He's the proto-typical power righty. His 4 seamer still sits in the mid 90's and his slider is rated as plus plus. He had a relatively poor platoon split, but has since refined his changeup and now he resembles nothing but a future ace in the making. He's relatively small, listed at just 6' 1", but really closer to 5' 10" and that is percieved to to force his Tommy John's. His rehab has gone swimmingly, and I really have nothing bad to say about this guy. Call him a strike out pitcher that can give you 6 IP with 7 K's. Durability will always be the question with pitchers of this size, but so far, so good for Parker. He's only in AA, and his walking a few more than I would really like, at 4.6 BB/9, but he has shown stronger control in the past, 3.9 BB/9 pre TJS. If Parker can keep his walks in check, I fully expect him to be in AAA by the end of August, with a probably Spring Training invite come 2012.

ETA: Mid season 2012. You want this kid. Draft him in the later rounds of 2012 if you can afford to bench him.

Shelby Miller - St. Louis Cardinals, SP
BA had him as the pre 2010 #50 prospect, then going into this year, Miller jumped to #13. Why the jump? For the sake of a slightly larger sample size, I'm combining Millers 2011 stats from A+ and AA. He's had 18 starts, 11.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and most impressively, his HR/9 is a microscopic 0.3. He's successfully surpressed the long ball in all 44 minor league starts, as his career MiLB HR/9 is 0.4. Previously, his best pitch, given his 6' 3" size, was unsurprisingly his 4-seamer. He usually sits in the 92-94 range, but this year he has stepped it up to the 97 mph threshold. He also features a low 80's 12-6 bender, and his improved command has reflected in his stock jump 40 slots by Baseball America. His breaking ball now rates as plus. However, most impressively, he has harnessed his changeup to a better degree, and now has a much more effective weapon against lefties. He doesn't give up homers, strikes batters out, and doesn't walk many. I fail to see the downside. Get ahold of him.

ETA: August, 2012. I don't expect him to break camp with the big league boys, but once he arrives, this power righty will be here to stay.

Really, none of these guys have a ton of present value. But looking beyond this season, all of these guys present upside to one degree or another. We all know that fantasy leagues aren't won in the first 5 rounds. They can be lost for sure there, but not won. The winners are the prospect savvy guys that work the waiver wire, reach for prospects in the draft, and sure, pull the occasional trade. I've armed you with more knowledge than most league owners will ever have. All you have to do is take my sound advice and run with it to your fantasy baseball champioship

My trade analysis

Here are my 3 finished trades, and my current pending trade:

March 28
Traded for: Juan Pierre, 2012 8th rounder
Traded away: Seth Smith, 2012 29th rounder
Seeing that my team sorely lacked SB, and needing the scrappy, speedy, leadoff-esque man that every team needs, I traded an 8th Round pick in 2012 and Seth Smith for Juan Pierre. Guess who's dissapointed? This guy.

April 8
Traded for: Youkilis, Tulo, Rios, 26-29 2012 draft picks
Traded away: Scutaro, McClouth, Peralta, 1, 3, 5, 7 2012 draft picks.
I win now, he wins later. Well, thats how it was supposed to go. Rios died, so did Pierre. Youk hit an injury bump but is ok, and Tulo is Tulo. Good trade at the time, poor result. Chalk it up to Unforseen Consequences*

July 7
Traded for: Street, Bailey, 28 and 29 2012 draft picks
Traded away: 11 and 17th round 2012 draft picks
Delusions of granduer struck me and when I awoke, I decided all this team was missing was saves! So I completely stomped on the holy SAGNOF rule, and boned myself next year even more.

Pending, already been accepted trade:
Traded for: D. Hudson, Beachy, Maybin, 29th 2012 draft pick
Traded away: 4th round 2012 draft pick
Fully in re-build (or re-non-fuck-myself-anymore) mode. I decided to do another trade. I'm hoping Beachy is for real, Hudson gets his K's up, and maybe next year I can move these guys again for more picks in 2013. 2012 is dead to me, so I'm kinda like the Mayans that way.

*If you know what video game that level name is from, I will give you a kiss. Here's a hint: Crowbar.

Now of course trades aren't the only way to spice things up in the fantasy world. The Waiver wire/Free Agency is often the cheapest, but leanest way as well, of improving your team. I have made the second most moves in the league this year, 42. Many of those are simple pitching streaming moves, but some have a little more detail. For a change of pace, here's me rewarding myself on a few fantasy baseball moves:

Pitchers that have worked out:
Parnell, Luebke, Rauch, Fister, J. Wright, Crain, Gregerson, Stauffer, Nathan. I still have Parnell, Luebke, Rauch and Nathan on my team to this day. All these guys were performed brilliantly for me in small samples. If only the rest of my team worked out so well...

Hitters that worked out:
J. Weeks, B. Allen, Lucroy, Salty, Bay. It's a little leaner of a list, but all these guys I picked up and hung on to for a bit. I still have Salty, Weeks and Allen on on team...which explains how I'm somehow not winning.

Wavin the white flag

Well, it is now July 23 and I'm finally waving the white flag on my fantasy baseball season.

Hey, at least this happened long after my A's threw in the towel for the real baseball season! And yes, that is more like a gray hair than a silver lining...sure, kick me when I'm down. As any decent sabermatrician will tell you, its more about understanding the process than the bottom line results. Of course, that's also been my line since 2006*, the last time we** were in the playoffs.

*Dear god, has it really been that long? Sheesh. My last hook-up graduated high school in 2010. Hey, its not a crime. Leave me alone. She was 18!

**Yeah, I say "we" when refering to the A's. Deal with it. Actually, you should just be used to it by now. I also say we when talking about Wake Forest, USA soccer, South Korea Soccer and occasionally Man U. So there.

Anyways, I'm here to look at what went wrong in my approach, from an objective and pragmatic view. I want to see what went sideways, why, and how to prevent it the year after next...Yeah I totally burned next year trying to win this year. If this were twitter, then I would be hashtagging this #fail #utterfail #epicfail. You'd get the idea that I was dissapointed or something...

Round - 1 - No pick, due to keeper compensation value
Round - 2 - Adrian Gozalez. Zero complaints
Round - 3 -No pick, compensation
Round - 4 - Ryan Zimmerman. Freak injury. Shit happens.
Round - 5- Jered Weaver. He's been a bit lucky, given his BABIP and HR/9, but I guess the K jump last year wasn't quite for real. Maybe he turns it around for me. I was a beleiver. and paid 3rd round value for 5th round quality. I blame myself.
Round - 6 - Nick Markakis. A reach for a mediocre COFer. Again, my fault. Whats the military say about planning? Every operation is great on paper, then the shooting starts? Well, thats how I feel about fantasy baseball drafts. You're damn right I went there.
Round - 7 - Jonathan Papelbon. I broke my rule. I follow SAGNOF's*. At least I try to after my one premier closer to get me 40. I panicked when the market for closers started to dry up.
Round - 8 - No pick, traded away
Round - 9 - Jonathon Broxton - See 1/4 of an inch above. Both of these are my fault. This error was magnifed by the lens that is closers, injuries, and Broxton throwing his fastball about as "fast" as Moyer.
Round - 10 - Carlos Pena. I actually don't feel bad about this pick. Sure, his OPB is mediocre and he loves to GIDP, but...you know, he hits jacks. And in bunches. So as a CI, he's servicable.
Round - 11 - Rajai Davis. I think I broke my arm reaching for him. Again, I fail to follow SAGNOF and it kills me.
Round - 12 - Yunel Escobar. I love this man. He is great. Sure, people in the MLB think he's an asshole, but who cares? He's still an average defender at SS and his bat plays fantastic there. I'm happy with him.
Round - 13 - Matt Garza. Ok, I have a half-finished blog post about him. His K/9 is great. His FIP and xFIP are also fantastic. His HR/9 rate was in the stratosphere, which is ironic, because it was up there in orbit with some of the dingers he gave up! He has since stablized and been everything you can expect from a 13th round draft pick...medocrity!!
Round - 14 - Jorge Posada. Move along, nothing to see here. Just a dead body under a sheet, er, wearing a baseball uniform. I got angry and dropped him. I gave him 112 ABs and he rewarded my optimism with a .287 OBP. He knocked the cover off the ball in June, though. Of course he did. I'm currently trotting out Salty and Molina...I'm gonna go drink some lighter fluid, cigars, anyone?
Round - 15 - Omar Infante. What can I say, I believed his year last year. And I got burned. This is why I hate the NL. This is eligble in 9 different slots, and sucks at all of them. He lured me in with his damn eligibility. Bastard.
Round - 16 - Nick Swisher, keeper. I love Swish. That is all.
Round - 17 - Rafael Soriano. Yup...I'm just not going to acknowledge this at all. But really, he crushed the AL East as a Ray, then the world turned upside down and he went back to being bad. I hate the Yankees. Except Swisher.
Round - 18 - Daric Barton. Had almost a .400 OBP last year. Currently in AAA. #hurtfeelings
Round - 19 - Ryan Doumit. Hey, he had Catcher eligibility. And zero baseball ability!
Round - 20 - Jhonny Peralta. Drafted him, then swiftly traded him away. Kinda regretting that one...
Round - 21 - Evan Meek. We play a Holds league...stop judging me.
Round - 22 - Sean Marshall. I legitly love this man. He and Castro are my only man-crushes on the Cubs. This guy is fucking great.
Round - 23 - Nate McClouth. I got this far, and realized that I only had Rajai as CF eligible, and he is made of something more delicate than glass. CF insurance.
Round - 24 - Josh Willingham. Drafted em, dropped em. Picked em up off of FA, dropped em. Rinse, repeat.
Round - 25 - Brian Fuentes. The bane of my existence. Evil in LOOGY form. If I could send a Terminator machine back in time, I would to stop Billy Beane from signing this guy. Then I would use my Terminator to make Tony Reagins re-sign Fuentes. Actually, that guy traded for Vernon Wells...he might of signed Fuentes again on his own!
Round - 26 - Marco Scutaro. That offense, that ballpark, SS eligible. For a 26th rounder? Sure, I'll take a LAF**
Round - 27 - Ocatvio Dotel. Well, since Fuentes is the embodiment of crap from the left side, I figured why not get his counter-part from the right side? All things being equal, they have the worst platoon splits of all time! Yay!
Round - 28 - Clay Hensley. Noting a theme there with my late round relievers?
Round - 29 - Edison Volquez. I kept him at thist cost, because even if he was terrible, it didn't cost anything. I was wrong. It cost me multiple starts of putrid rates, sprinkled with a few K's here and there.

*SAGNOF: Steals/Saves Ain't Got No Face, coined by the wonderful fellows at razzball
*LAF = LAte round Flyer. I'm trying it out. Feedback?

I give myself a C+ on the draft. I got a few things right, a few things wrong, and overall left with a team that could not win this year. Thus recognizing this, April 2011 me decided what July 2011 me is currently regretting. I blew all of my valuable draft picks trying to get players to plug in. Thats coming next. Right now, actually.

Your Very Own(able) AL 2nd half Prospects

Mike Trout: Got the call today. Its about time. Oh, to the Majors, not to AAA? Hmm...about that. Anytime a 19 year old gets the call up to the majors, I've skeptical. Put thoughts of Heyward aside, it is exceedingly rare to see such a young player get called up and perform like that. By all accounts he plays a breathtaking CF, and he was toying with AA pitchers to the tune of .324/.415/.534. His BB/K numbers looks strong he's even flashed a little power. MLE translates that to .256/.326/.399 with 6 HR and 22 SB. I'd expect about that, but with a touch more average and OBP. ETA: now!

Desmond Jennings: Currently in AAA. Stickin with the CF theme, lets take a look at one of the most frequently asked prospects. Currently stickin with a .275/.370/.457 line, he's showing some patience and some power. Then again, he's 24, and in his 3rd year of AAA. The Rays are notorious for waiting until their prospects are 100% ready and 100% guaranteed to avoid Super 2 Status. MLE says thats a .232/.313/.374 line in the majors. I don't buy that. I'd expect for Jennings to get up and put more of a .260/.345/.400 line with 20 steals for the rest of the season. He has nothing left to prove. ETA: next week?

Brett Lawrie: .354/.415/.677 that line is PCL inflated, then further inflated from his launching pad of a home park. I'm not totally convinced that he'll stay at 2B for his career and Toronto seems to agree that 3B is more likely, but when he gets the call, I would expect this right hander with power to fit right in at the Rogers Center. Strike outs are a bit of a red flag for me, but his power is pretty legit, I would guess 25 over the course of a full season given that home park, and 20 steals wouldn't be unheard of for him. Snap him up. ETA: With Bautista now playing 3B, I would assume they would call up Lawrie soon and move Joey Bats back to RF. Call it August 1st.

Matt Moore: I drool when I think of him. I already own him in one of my keeper leagues, and fully intend to hang on to this boy for the rest of his natural life. He's crushing the feeble AA hitters presented to him right now and sports a .90 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 and miniscule 2.4 BB/9. He's faced 374 batter and fanned 125 of the poor guys. He works with a low to mid 90's heater, a plus-plus curveball and a slightly above average change-up. My only worry is his "unconventional" mechanics, but the jury is still out on what works and what doesn't for pitchers. He has a no hitter this year. He saved my sisters cat from a fire. He can make pancakes appear out of thin air. I am in luhhhh. And not just because my last love was also named Moore...as in Mandy. But I digress. I'd expect him to get a cup of coffee in September, but nothing before that. If you're in a keeper league, pounce on this boy the way 15 year old me wanted to pounce on Mandy Moore.

Stay tuned for your NL prospects tomorrow

NL All Bat, No Glove All Stars

This is a follow up piece to my last article, regarding the amazing ability for major leagues to be prolific hitters and dismal fielders. And they say baseball is a 5 tool game. Ha.

1B - Prince Fielder
wRC: 74.1, most created
UZR/150: -2.8, 5th most lost
Now here's an ironic last name, amiright? Come on, it had to be said. Fielder has been the most productive 1B in the senior circuit (slightly edging out Joey Votto, 71.5 wRC). Given that that Albert Pujols has been more Albert Punchless this year, can't say I'm too shocked to see Fielder atop the list.

2B - Neil Walker
wRC: 38.1 6th most runs created
UZR/150: -7.0, 2nd most runs lost
Ok, so he's been 4% less than league average from an offensive standpoint, there really wasn't a good candidate here in the NL. It was either good at both eg Rickie Weeks, or pathetic at both, and I'm looking at you now, Dan Uggla.

SS - Starlin Castro
wRC: 49.4, 3rd most created
UZR/150: -7.9, 5th most lost
Another surprise to me. My eye test says Castro plays a decent field, but the numbers disagree. And knowing me, I go with my head over my eyes every time. Unless I have beer goggles on.

3B - Chase Headley
wRC: 47.1, 2nd most runs created
UZR/150: -8.2, 3rd most lost
Hmm. Didn't see this one coming. Partly because I never imagined Headley putting up a wOBA of .350 in that park, but mostly because I never would have ever imagined mentioning Chase Headley here. Ahh, the wonders of small sample size!

RF - Lance Berkman
wRC: 59.4, 3rd most runs created
UZR/150: -22.9, most lost
So he's not even played 400 innings there, I had to put him in this list. I mean, we all know he's had an incredible offensive year, but I think the amazing thing is his defense. I mean, 22.9 runs lost...thats just impressive. Thank the fantasy gods that defense doesn't matter in fantasy. Honorable mention to Aubrey Huff attempts at defense that compiled an amazing -119.0 UZR/150 in only 88 innings of play.

CF - Matt Kemp
wRC: 76.7, most by 13 runs
UZR/150: -14.9, most runs lost by 5
Honestly, I didn't even really need too look this up. I only did to get a firm definition of his numbers. Both his offensive and defensive numbers shouldn't surprise anyone by now. If only I owned him on any of my 3 teams #swoon. Anywho, I should stop saying anywho and get back to work.

LF - Ryan Braun
wRC: 68.3, most runs created by 14
UZR/150: -6.4
Yep, he is what he is. And that saying is probably the world's worst saying of all time, other than "thrown under the bus." Braun is a fantasy monster. It's no shocker to see him a top the offensive list, and near the bottom of the defensive spectrum.

C - Brian McCann
wRC: 52.6, most runs created by 13
DRS: -4, tied with Yadier Molina for most runs lost*
This is absurd. Yadier Molina is an animal of a defensive catcher. I hate defensive metrics sometimes. Either way, defensive metrics hate both McCann and Yadi. Go figure.

Obviously we are dealing with a preposterously small sample size yet. Most offensive numbers have normalized to some degree, but UZR really needs a 3 year sample to be truly accurate. This was done purely out of fun, and to make fun of some truly abysmal fielders.

All Bat, No Glove

As I laid in bed last night, unable to sleep, I decided to once again peruse the single season FanGraphs Leaders board. Not for any particular reason, but once there I found how good and bad Matt Kemp is. His offense has been crazy good, as I'm sure you're well aware, but good lord, his defense has been "cover your eyes bad."

Since the All Star Game is approaching, I decided to make the most prolific offensive and most inept defense possible. All data is from qualified players from this year, so give me a little leeway in the interpretations of numbers. I'll be using wRC for offense, and UZR/150 for defense. This will give you a rough idea of how many runs each player has created and cost his team. Catchers I'll only be using DRS, because quantifying defense is hard enough for position players, let alone catchers.

Here is the AL "All Bat, No Glove" starting 8:

1B - Miguel Cabrera
wRC: 71.2, 2nd most created, behind only Adrian Gonzalez
UZR/150: -12.1, the worst by more than 10 runs. Thats a win. His WAR just lost 1.0 due to defense...in half a season. Unreal.
No surprise here. A fackin gorgeous wRC already, his defense is rated so poorly I almost feel bad for making fun of it. Almost. I mean wow. That's almost the penalty of DHing right there in WAR.

2B - Robinson Cano
wRC: 54.8,3rd most created
UZR/150: -5.3, the worst by 5+ runs
I know Orlando Cabrera rates lower defensively, but this isn't a list of no bat, no glove. Can't say I'm too shocked to see the "Gold Glover" here. I hate that award. But that's a post for another day.

SS - Asdrubal Cabrera
wRC: 57.4, the most runs created by a comfortable 6
UZR/150: -4.1, second most runs lost
This comes a pretty big surprise. Everyone knows what a hellova year Asdrubal is having at the dish, but I never viewed him as that bad of a defensive shortstop. I looked up his career numbers and sure enough, he's been bad his whole career there. Don't worry, BBTN still gives him web gems. And yes, any other year, Jeter would be the run away at this spot. Normally he's at least good at one part of baseball, but not this year!

3B - Mark Reynolds
wRC: 51.4, 2nd most created
UZR/150: -32.7, hands down the most lost, by a mind blowing 20.6 runs!
The words you're looking for are spilled on the floor from when your jaw dropped. At least that's what happened to me. That is so unimaginably bad that words elude me. I have to move on. otherwise my head might explode.

RF - Brennan Boesch*
wRC: 51.7, 3rd most created
UZR/150: -6.7, second most lost
*So I'm kind of cheating here. Boesch has spent the majority of his time in RF, but almost as much in LF. I was just shocked to see his name as the 3rd most wRC in the AL, behind the monster Joey Bats and 3 True Out Quentins.

CF - Adam Jones
wRC: 46.5, 4th most created
UZR/150: -18.8, most lost
He gets lost in the AL East sometimes, but this guy can really stick. And since he plays in the AL East, non Yankee or Sawx division, we're done talking about him. At least he got more words here than ESPN has given the O's all season! At least that's what a little blue bird told me...poor Torono. Also, between this guy "fielding" Center, and that disaster at 3B, I can't believe the O's pitchers haven't gone on strike yet. And now the O's might hire me for all this ink I'm giving them!

LF - Josh Willingham*
wRC: 29.3, 8th most
UZR/150: -16.3, 2nd most lost.
*Manipulated the numbers a bit here too. He doesn't quite qualify, but I've seen enough of him attempting to play LF that I'm sticking him here. And yes, that isn't a typo. He hasn't even created 30 runs yet. I swear I hate being an A's fan sometimes.

C - Kurt Suzuki*
wRC: 25.0, 6th most
DRS: -3, 2nd most in the AL
*Fucking catchers, they only play 4 times a week, if that. They're all split timing and platooning. I had to put someone here, just like my A's had to put someone in the All Star game. *sigh*

This AL team would put up 12 runs a game, and give up 10. I think this should be the the starting 8 for the ASG. The best thing about a format like this would be that neither pitcher would be happy about! And isn't that what the ASG is all about? Making sure no one is happy, just all equally angry?

The NL lineup will be posted tomorrow! I think I'm going to optimize the lineups, then figure out which team would score and give up more runs. And yes, this is entertaining to me.

Some ASG thoughts

10 Years ago I loved the ASG. The idea of the best players in MLB's seperate leagues on exhibition against each other? Who wouldn't love that?

5 Years ago I was enthusiastic about the ASG. No, I was more enthusiastic about my recent discovery of a little website known as Fire Joe Morgan. Their take on the voting, the game mattering, who deserves what and so forth captivated me like the young wide-eyed child of yesteryear. The budding movement of baseball nerds such as myself was in full swing. We laughed at RBI's, and scoffed at Saves. OBP was the stat of choice for us.

Last year, I had a strong disdain for the All Star Game. I finally realized that its awful. The idea itself is fantastic, but the execution is just...deplorable. It had nowhere to go but up for me, and I thought that maybe, just maybe, it could be saved.

Today. I'm fuming. This is absurd. I'm doing what most sabermetrically inclined people tend to do when we feel slighted...we take to the blogosphere!! The following is a list of things that I would do to fix the ASG. I truly love baseball, and I think if this brief break from the regular season is the "All-Star" Game, then the people in it should be the best at their position. Hopefully by the end of this, I won't have broken an arm reaching for truth, or sprained my ankle getting off my high horse.

Change #1 - The Fan Voting
The voting is a popularity contest. It's a contest where the only merit is name recognition value. The reason for this is simple: Fans are ignorant. Actually I'm sorry, most fans are ignorant. Let me clarify further: Fans are not dumb, but ignorant of the facts and the numbers. For example, many baseball fans consider RBI's, vitally important. RBI's and batting average are what the vast majority of fans will cite when making the case for their All-Star ballots. Unfortunately, I have what Doctors call "The Burden of Knowledge" and I can't share those crude talent assessments. Think about it. Batting average has been the mainstream calculator of a baseball hitter's talent since...well, since Henry Chadwick. Again, I do not blame the fans themselves for their votes, I blame us. The sabermatricians. The guys with glasses and calculators who seemingly everyone says "live in our mother's basements." We can do a better job of helping the uninformed with answers instead of snark, with the correct stats over the old and obsolete. We can do better, and we owe the fans and more importantly the game itself to share our knowledge. Let us not change the voting system, but let us change the basis of the votes. If we can open the eyes of the casual fan to the beautiful truth of the numbers, then the All Star Game will win me back.

Change #2 - Every team gets a representative
How absurd. This isn't Pony League baseball where feelings will get hurt. This grown men being paid (very well) to play a game. They are, by definition, professionals. Lets treat them as such. If a team doesn't have any deserving players, then so be it. I hope that embarrassing the entire organization. Few things motivate as well as the fear of public humiliation. If a team gets snubbed from the ASG, I guarantee changes will happen. The fans would clammor, the owner rattle the President, the President yells at the GM, the GM to the manager, and the manager to his coaching staff and the players. That is of course assuming none of the coaches gets fired. Let's finally drop the notion that there should be fairness in the ASG. We shouldn't reward overall mediocrity when stuck on a pathetic team. If I do my job, but the rest of the office is in pathetic shambles, am I automatically considered CEO material? Come on.

Change #3 - Rosters
35 roster spots? Ummm, this is easy to fix. The ASG rosters should be like this:

C - 2
1B - 2
2B - 2
SS - 2
3B - 2
OF - 5
UTIL - 4
SP - 4
RP - 3
P - 3

Bam. 29 Roster slots. Just trimmed the fat. If it looks similar to a fantasy roster, well, it should. Because thats what it. Simple. If a MLB manager can't win a game with 29 of the supposedly best players in his league, then what is he doing managing his own team of 25?? 29 is a lot. I would personally like to see it cut down even more, but I felt that soon we would be approaching the point of diminishing returns of a smaller roster. DL players are still eligible. I split them up as follows:

12 fan voting
10 player voting
5 manager voting
2 final voting -comprised of players who received votes from the 3 earlier voting, but did not make the cut.

Change #4 - In game rules
-A roving lineup card. That is to say that any player, not just one, can start, play 2 innings, sit, then go back in if need be.
-No tie games.
-2 IP limit for pitchers, 4 consecutive innings or 3 consecutive plate appearances for a hitter.

Change #5 - It "matters"
The ridiculous fact that this sole game decides home field advantage for the World Series is almost beyond words. I hate this. The World Series is played months away, and it actually matters. The AL fans never flaunted the recent winning streak. The Giants have flaunted their rings. The World Series matters. The ASG, in truth, does not and should not. Let team with the best regular season record be awarded home field advantage.

Please Bud Selig, do the right thing and adjust, amend, whatever you want to call it, but just fix the All Star Game.