Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Playoff Rotations!

As pointed out here, the playoff race is largely decided. Sure, the Rangers could collapse, but really, at this point, we know the 8 teams. For kicks and giggles, I'll include the Angels in this article too. I'm looking at each teams (probable and honestly, the most sensical) playoff rotations. I'm only looking at this season's data and I'll be doing this exercise, assuming that there won't be a 1 game playoff, and that each team can set it's rotation.

The statistic I'll be citing is xFIP. I'll also be listing IP, because I personally believe that the number of innings a starter throws is incredible important. It's an indicator of health, which is obviously important. Now, there are literally dozens of ERA estimators and just as many RA calculators, but I'm choosing xFIP for its predictive value going forward. Now that I've cleared everything up, off to the names and corresponding numbers!

New York Yankees

GameNamexFIPIP to Date
1C.C. Sabathia 3.00205
2Bartolo Colon3.53127 1/3
3Ivan Nova4.01131

I loathe them. Not because they spend money, there aren't any rules against that. It's because of the MSM love and obsession with them. There's 29 other teams guys, come on. Also, for the playoff defeats. But that's an especially bitter subject. Moving on. Intuitively, I would have assumed that Freddy Garcia has out pitched Ivan Nova, but Nova's fantastic 54.1 GB% carried him to the #3 spot. Either way, If I'm a Yankee's fan, I'm praying for a ton of rainouts so you can trot C.C. out there 4 times in a row.


Boston Red Sox
GameNamexFIPIP to Date
1Jon Lester3.55160
2Josh Beckett3.60163
3Erik Bedard*3.42117 1/3

I hate these guys more than the Yankees. I have my reasons. Not the least of which being 2003, but whatever. You could honestly flip Lester and Beckett, and I'm sure Francona will, given post season reputation and all. It's hard to go wrong there. I included all of Bedard's IP, not just with the Red Sox, thus the asterisk. Lackey isn't a realistic option in the playoffs anyways.


Detroit Tigers
GameNamexFIPIP to Date
1Justin Verlander3.03215 2/3
2Max Scherzer3.78165 1/3
3Dough Fister*3.89174 2/3

Ah yes, the local sports collective. I'm still bitter over 2006, but I'll live. Again, I've included both of Fister's teams here. This is a pretty easy call, JV is pitching like a man possessed, and Scherzer and Fister are very different pitchers, but they get very similar results. Move along folks, nothing to see here.


Texas Rangers
GameNamexFIPIP to Date
C.J. Wilson3.47186
2Derek Holland3.88165 1/3
3Alexi Ogando3.89151 1/3
4Matt Harrison3.90153

I had to inlcude the top 4 pitchers here, because as you can see, they're all remarkably similar. This even leaves off Colby Lewis, who's thrown 172 Innings, but to a xFIP of 4.14, making him the odd man out. Then again, if I'm Ron Washington, I'm lining myself up for a 1-2-3 of Wilson, Holland, Harrison, in that order. the groundball rate is the difference maker here for me, and Ogando only gets a worm burnder 36.2% of the time. That won't (literally) fly in Yankee Stadium or Fenway too well.


Los Angeles Angels of Los Angeles' Largest, Richest and Whitest Suburb
GameNamexFIPIP to Date
1Dan Haren3.26193 2/3
2Ervin Santana3.71197
3Jered Weaver3.73201 1/3

So, speakiin of things I didn't see coming: that up there. I had no idea Weaver would have the 3rd best xFIP. Granted, thats a ridiculously marginal amount, but still. Obviously Scosicapath isn't crazy enough to start Santana over Weaver. In fact, I doubt he would start Haren before Weaver, but this is at least interesting. I'd still trot out Weaver, Haren, Santana, though it's closer for the top 2 than I would have guessed.


Philadelphia Phillies - Spoiler Alert! Prepare to not be surprised at all!

GameNamexFIPIP to Date
1Roy Halladay2.57189 2/3
2Cliff Lee2.73178
3Cole Hamels2.9 186

Yerp. Just as expected. Honestly, this is a such a no brainer, I'm insulted at myself for taking the time to look this up.

Atlanta Braves
GameNamexFIPIP to Date
1Brandon Beachy3.23114 1/3
2Tommy Hanson3.24130
3Tim Hudson3.50177
4Derek Lowe3.6157 1/3

Given the fairly recent discovery of a small tear in his throwing shoulders rotator cuff, I felt that I should also list Lowe. The downgrade from Hanson to Lowe is steeper than the number would suggest. Assuming Hanson comes back 100%, my ideal rotation would be Hanson, Hudson, Beachy. If Hanson is still hurt, I shuffle it to go Hudson, Beach, Lowe.

Milwaukee Brewers


GameNamexFIPIP to Date
1Zack Greinke2.45135 2/3
2Yovani Gallardo3.39176 1/3
3Shaun Marcum3.80162 1/3
3Chris Narveson 3.80137 2/3

Wow, so ok, 2 things jump out at me. First, I can't beleive Greinke has a 2.45 xFIP. That is so dirty. Good god. I mean, wow, mind fuck. But secondly, I never would have guessed that Shaun Marcum and Chris Narveson have identical xFIP's. Obviously the top 3 should be Greinke, Yo-Ga, Marcum by the numbers, and that's exactly how it should be.

Arizona Diamondbacks

GameNamexFIPIP to Date
1Ian Kennedy3.59187 1/3
2Daniel Hudson3.66187
3Josh Collmenter 4.20110

Yeesh. Not a bad 1-2 punch, but man, this number 3 situation is almost as bad as the Yankee's. At least the D-Backs have a legit #2. I still don't know how exactly this team is winning the division, but whatevs, it's the NL. Oh yeah, and because the Giants are starting multiple corpses in the field. That too.

This isn't the end-all, be-all of playoff setups, but this is about as clear of a picture as we can get right now. Having 3 great starters isn't the exact recipe for post season success, but its absolutely one of the main ingredients. Going by this, I really like the Brewers to do some serious damage. And yes, they were my preseason NL World Series contender...my AL was the A's...I'm a homer, and I don't care what you think of me. Besides, I know that next year will be our year!


As always, tables compliments of Tableizer!

Thursday, August 4, 2011

The upcoming CBA

I've devoted a considerable amount of time, energy, faith, hope, frustration, anger and elation towards MLB over the years. It's time for some of that to end...well, all the negative stuff I hope.

This coming off-season (in which once again, my beloved A's will start before their due) is a big one. Everyone is all locked in over the NFL and NBA lockouts, but the NFL is resolved and the NBA is a nothing but a crime syndicate.*

*Seriously. It's all a fabrication. It's almost as bad as FIFA. Almost...

A major part of my frustration is based on the fact that I do in fact root for one of the more frugal teams in the baseball. Not to say that I'm complaining, I don't want this post to turn into a pity party, but forgive me as I get this off my chest: The current MLB revenue structure is one that is unsustainable.

It's not just the major media markets, its the private TV deals (YES, NESN) and the fact that revenue sharing does not encompass those TV agreements. The Yankees and Red Sox are not breaking any rules of course, but they are breaking baseball. The major league payroll discrepencies aren't the only telling statistic either. Draft over-slotting, International scouting, and free agent acquisition are all the same point: Money drives baseball. Maybe more accurately, money drives life, but that's a different post for a different day.

The following is a list of everything that I would like to see fix/changed/eliminated from the game that so many of us love so dearly. Not of all of this has to do with the CBA, but damnit, I'm going to list the changes I want to see here anyways. Mr. Commissioner, take these words to heart.

1. Implement a mandatory salary floor, in addition to the luxury tax. If a team (I'm looking at you, Florida and Pittsburgh) fails to spend X amount, call it 45 million on the major league roster, then they don't get a piece of the revenue sharing pie. The age old axiom of "You gotta spend money to make money" needs to hold water here. When owners are making money by ripping the heart out of fanbases by keeping an inferior team on the field and intentionally allowing free agents to be leave for richer pastures, we have a problem. It's tantamount to theft. Owners can sit back, field a sub-par team and still collect gate, concessions, etc in one hand, then recieve a check from the MLB Commisioners office with the other. It's basic, force teams to spend money. That's it.

2. In addition to the current revenue sharing formula, any "private media" contract will also be eligible to be shared. While the Yankees and Red Sox seem to always spend the most or almost the most amount on MLB talent every year, they still only spend a fraction of what they actually make. Those stadiums charge more money per seat, sell more accessories, and have the most lucrative TV deals. I realize it isn't their fault for being popular and making money, but it is still team money. MLB team money. This must be addressed and corrected. Put it this way: A team makes money by selling themselves. Revenue sharing forces a bit of baseball socialism, by redistributing that money. Why is it absurd to ask the Yankees for some of that 500 million TV contract? Shouldn't the A's, Twins, Rays, Pirates and Marlins get a fair portion of that? It will never really be revenue sharing until everything is shared. Bill James touched on this very subject years ago, and to my utter amazement, its one of the things still not talked about.

3. Free Agent compenesation should be eliminated. Type A and B free agent compensation is absurd. Firstly, it uses a crappy formula for both hitters and pitchers, and the Elias Sports Bureau is a bunch of idiots. Moving on from the flaws of that formula, the compensation is openly mocked and played by MLB teams. You can call it an inefficency if you'd like, I'd prefer to just call it a deficiency. Teams with higher payroll abilites can trade for a player in the final year of a contract solely for the Type A or B status that accompanies him. They can in effect pay 1 season for 2 first round draft picks if they play it right. The richest teams then have all the draft picks too. Umm, what? So, you can get ahead by spending, and stay there by spending more. I forgot that that was the idea behind baseball.

4. Hard slotting for the draft. Example: If you get drafted first round, 9th overall, you will get a maximum package of 4.3 million. Etc. Pretty clear. You shouldn't dangle a wad of cash in front of a 18 year old kid with a full ride scholarship offer. Don't buy him off. If he wants to go to college, let him. Don't tempt him with petty cash. Set the dollar amount in descending order from first overall down. Adjust year to year for inflation. Amatuer free agents can sign to a maximum of say, 50,000. I'm just throwing numbers out there, but I'm trying to light a match in a cave here, so give me a little space.

5. Elimination of all divisions. The best 4 teams from each league make the playoffs. If that happens to be the Phillies, Braves, Mets and Marlins one year, well, so be it. The playoffs are far too important to allow an inferior team in, or leave a superior team out. It shouldn't be this difficult for the masses to think that the playoffs should only include the best teams...

6. 7 game DS. I know this adds about 4 extra days. But 5 games? Come on. Wayyyy to small of sample size. Then again, so is 7, but if the playoffs were just extensions of the regular season aka H2H Fantasy baseball, would that be fair? Actually, yes, it would. Complete teams with depth would then come into play much more. Whatever, at least give us a best of 7 in the DS. More baseball is never a bad thing. Call it an expansion of the playoffs, without adding more teams. Everybody wins! Well, except the losers.

7. The higher seed in each series gets 5 home games, not 4. If you want a true home field advantage, let's give it the team thats earned it over the course of the season. I'd actually be ok with the wild car winner having 1 or even zero home games. "Earn it in 162!" I always say!*

*I have never, ever said that. It just seemed to work. Shut up. This is free.

8. All of this.

9. Expand instant replay for the love of cake! Don't just do homeruns and fair/foul balls. Extend it to plays at the plate, safe vs out and catches vs traps. I'm actually against the balls/strikes replay. I love how some Umps have a hitters zone or a pitchers zone. Baseball is all about the human element, so each pitch call can vary. That being said, we now posses the technology to get every other call accurate. Why wouldn't we as a fanbase and baseball as an institution want that?

10. I tried hard to come up with something here for my 10th change, but really I'm coming up emtpy. Also, why did the number 10 get arbitrarily picked to be the best? Top 10s, 10 best of, etc. Why? The U.S. uses a base 12 system, even that's completely idiotic, but again, that's a whole nother can'o worms. This list turned into a list of 9 because 9 is a legit number...and because I'm hungry and have writers block, so there's that too.