And finally, after far too long, here is my take on some of the up n comers for the NL. You can expect some of these guys to be owned already, but I'll try and cover some relative unknowns as well.
Julio Tehran - Atlanta Braves, SP
Thus far in AAA, he is striking out a few less batters in previous years, just 7.8 k/9, but is barely walking anyone either. He sports a BB/9 rate of just 2.5, his best since A+ ball. He has a strong mid 90's four seamer that can touch 96. His curve is above average, and so is his changeup. There have been talks about him tipping pitches, and it is noticable in his arm speed from his four seamer to his changeup. I'd expect him to work out of the 'Pen this year, ala Price for the Rays in 2009. Going into 2012, I suppose you could take a flyer on him, but wait until the 4th tier pitchers start going, unless you're in a keeper league of course. My personal major league comp would be a right handed Ted Lilly. Useful, but not a star. Baseball America loves him, so does BP, but I just don't see it. Not until he refines his delivery will he ever live up to his expectations.
ETA: September call up, breaks camp with Braves in 2012. All keeper leagues should own him. Any redraft you can ignore him til next year.
Devin Mesoraco - Cincinnati Reds, Catcher.
Wow. After his metoric rise in 2010 where he jumped 3 levels A+ to AA to AAA, his stock still continues to rise. Pre-2011, Baseball America had him at 64, with questions about his health and ability to stay behind the dish. So far in 2011, he has caught 69 games, and DH'd another 17. The Red's don't have a DH* and they have some guy named Votto currently manning 1B. I would expect the Reds to hope and pray that Mesoraco can stick behind the plate. With another hot prospect in Yasmani Grandal behind him and hoping to also catch for the big league club, it seems as though Mesoraco has overcome all doubts about his game. In 366 PA, his triple slash is .309/.383/.512. He has 10 homers, and 32, yes, 32 doubles already. As a Catcher. What? He even has 2 triples. With the straight platoon of Hanigan and Hernandez, I figure that Mesoraco won't be up this year, but next year he should break camp with the club and probably sticks there for life. Hernandez doesn't have a contract next year, and Hanigan profiles as a career backup. Call him Weiters 2.0, but this time the sequel is better than the original. Keep an eye on this kid.
*NL should join the 21st century and get the DH already. Pitchers are pitchers, not hitters. Nuff said.
ETA: cup of coffee in September, probably is the Catcher of the future in Cincinnati. A must own in all leagues in 2012.
Pedro Alvarez - Pittsburgh Pirates, OF
Baseball American had him as the 8th best prospect going into the this season? What's happened? Well, what we've seen from Alvarez is right in line with his scouting reports. Prodigious power, pull happy approach, significant uppercut swing. Multiple holes in his swing, struggles against lefty. Figure him Jack Cust, in prospect form. 3 true out comes for this guy sounds about right. He's currently in AAA, but I expect him to be back soon. He's already owned in almost 40% of Yahoo! leagues, which to me, is too high. People are still high on his name value alone. There comes a certain point in which we have to stop believing in prospects. I think this time the scouts proved to be prophetic. They had this guy pegged since A ball. If you own him, sell high on his name. You can pick him up if you're desperate for HR, but expect a big hit in your AVG. On the other hand, if you're in an OPB league, he could be a nice find. I still say to proceed with caution. If he ever fixes his swing, then he could be a significant threat. I think he's just been coasting on pure talent until this year. Which is both a pro and a con, few make it this far on raw talent. If his head matches his body's ability, then I'll be drafting him, until then? I'm staying away.
ETA: Next week? He's working out swing issues in AAA, but I'm not touching this guy. Maybe a top 75 OF next year...maybe. I'll pass, and I reccommend you do too.
Jaff Decker - San Diego Padres, LF
Rated #82 in BA's 2010 picks, he was left off completely in 2011. Scouts judged him to be fat and unathletic, too bad they were only half right. When drafted, yes, he had a little pudge to him, but he has recently slimmed downed. How the scouts ever doubted his athletcisim is beyond me. This guy can flat out hit. He's currently in his first go around in AA and his triple slash .223/.382/.408 says it all. Low average, low contact, high OPB. What this doesn't show is Decker's power. He's got 14 jacks and 16 doubles and even a pair of triples just for fun. He'll never be Matt Holliday, but he's about a dead ringer for Matt Stairs, in body type, hitter profile, and defensive...concern. With almost a 25% BB rate, Decker's pitch recognition and plate discipline is second to none. Not your proto-typical person to make a prospect primer, I nonetheless have my eye on this kid. I think he can produce a .255/.390/.490 at the major league level. What hurts him is scouting stereotypes and his home MLB Park. He would do well to be traded to an AL team. I think he's got 3 seasons of LF in him, then they have to move him to 1B or even DH. Will he hit to compensate the DH penalty? I think this guy has flown under the rader enough that we don't know, but I wouldn't bet against him.
Jarrod Parker - Arizona Diamondbacks, SP
He has been ranked in the top 50 of Baseball America every year from 2008-2011, 46, 29, 36 and 33. What does he have to offer that has scouts so dazzled? After having TJS, he has comeback exquisitely. He's the proto-typical power righty. His 4 seamer still sits in the mid 90's and his slider is rated as plus plus. He had a relatively poor platoon split, but has since refined his changeup and now he resembles nothing but a future ace in the making. He's relatively small, listed at just 6' 1", but really closer to 5' 10" and that is percieved to to force his Tommy John's. His rehab has gone swimmingly, and I really have nothing bad to say about this guy. Call him a strike out pitcher that can give you 6 IP with 7 K's. Durability will always be the question with pitchers of this size, but so far, so good for Parker. He's only in AA, and his walking a few more than I would really like, at 4.6 BB/9, but he has shown stronger control in the past, 3.9 BB/9 pre TJS. If Parker can keep his walks in check, I fully expect him to be in AAA by the end of August, with a probably Spring Training invite come 2012.
ETA: Mid season 2012. You want this kid. Draft him in the later rounds of 2012 if you can afford to bench him.
Shelby Miller - St. Louis Cardinals, SP
BA had him as the pre 2010 #50 prospect, then going into this year, Miller jumped to #13. Why the jump? For the sake of a slightly larger sample size, I'm combining Millers 2011 stats from A+ and AA. He's had 18 starts, 11.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and most impressively, his HR/9 is a microscopic 0.3. He's successfully surpressed the long ball in all 44 minor league starts, as his career MiLB HR/9 is 0.4. Previously, his best pitch, given his 6' 3" size, was unsurprisingly his 4-seamer. He usually sits in the 92-94 range, but this year he has stepped it up to the 97 mph threshold. He also features a low 80's 12-6 bender, and his improved command has reflected in his stock jump 40 slots by Baseball America. His breaking ball now rates as plus. However, most impressively, he has harnessed his changeup to a better degree, and now has a much more effective weapon against lefties. He doesn't give up homers, strikes batters out, and doesn't walk many. I fail to see the downside. Get ahold of him.
ETA: August, 2012. I don't expect him to break camp with the big league boys, but once he arrives, this power righty will be here to stay.
Really, none of these guys have a ton of present value. But looking beyond this season, all of these guys present upside to one degree or another. We all know that fantasy leagues aren't won in the first 5 rounds. They can be lost for sure there, but not won. The winners are the prospect savvy guys that work the waiver wire, reach for prospects in the draft, and sure, pull the occasional trade. I've armed you with more knowledge than most league owners will ever have. All you have to do is take my sound advice and run with it to your fantasy baseball champioship
Showing posts with label fantasy baseball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fantasy baseball. Show all posts
Saturday, July 23, 2011
My trade analysis
Here are my 3 finished trades, and my current pending trade:
March 28
Traded for: Juan Pierre, 2012 8th rounder
Traded away: Seth Smith, 2012 29th rounder
Seeing that my team sorely lacked SB, and needing the scrappy, speedy, leadoff-esque man that every team needs, I traded an 8th Round pick in 2012 and Seth Smith for Juan Pierre. Guess who's dissapointed? This guy.
April 8
Traded for: Youkilis, Tulo, Rios, 26-29 2012 draft picks
Traded away: Scutaro, McClouth, Peralta, 1, 3, 5, 7 2012 draft picks.
I win now, he wins later. Well, thats how it was supposed to go. Rios died, so did Pierre. Youk hit an injury bump but is ok, and Tulo is Tulo. Good trade at the time, poor result. Chalk it up to Unforseen Consequences*
July 7
Traded for: Street, Bailey, 28 and 29 2012 draft picks
Traded away: 11 and 17th round 2012 draft picks
Delusions of granduer struck me and when I awoke, I decided all this team was missing was saves! So I completely stomped on the holy SAGNOF rule, and boned myself next year even more.
Pending, already been accepted trade:
Traded for: D. Hudson, Beachy, Maybin, 29th 2012 draft pick
Traded away: 4th round 2012 draft pick
Fully in re-build (or re-non-fuck-myself-anymore) mode. I decided to do another trade. I'm hoping Beachy is for real, Hudson gets his K's up, and maybe next year I can move these guys again for more picks in 2013. 2012 is dead to me, so I'm kinda like the Mayans that way.
*If you know what video game that level name is from, I will give you a kiss. Here's a hint: Crowbar.
Now of course trades aren't the only way to spice things up in the fantasy world. The Waiver wire/Free Agency is often the cheapest, but leanest way as well, of improving your team. I have made the second most moves in the league this year, 42. Many of those are simple pitching streaming moves, but some have a little more detail. For a change of pace, here's me rewarding myself on a few fantasy baseball moves:
Pitchers that have worked out:
Parnell, Luebke, Rauch, Fister, J. Wright, Crain, Gregerson, Stauffer, Nathan. I still have Parnell, Luebke, Rauch and Nathan on my team to this day. All these guys were performed brilliantly for me in small samples. If only the rest of my team worked out so well...
Hitters that worked out:
J. Weeks, B. Allen, Lucroy, Salty, Bay. It's a little leaner of a list, but all these guys I picked up and hung on to for a bit. I still have Salty, Weeks and Allen on on team...which explains how I'm somehow not winning.
March 28
Traded for: Juan Pierre, 2012 8th rounder
Traded away: Seth Smith, 2012 29th rounder
Seeing that my team sorely lacked SB, and needing the scrappy, speedy, leadoff-esque man that every team needs, I traded an 8th Round pick in 2012 and Seth Smith for Juan Pierre. Guess who's dissapointed? This guy.
April 8
Traded for: Youkilis, Tulo, Rios, 26-29 2012 draft picks
Traded away: Scutaro, McClouth, Peralta, 1, 3, 5, 7 2012 draft picks.
I win now, he wins later. Well, thats how it was supposed to go. Rios died, so did Pierre. Youk hit an injury bump but is ok, and Tulo is Tulo. Good trade at the time, poor result. Chalk it up to Unforseen Consequences*
July 7
Traded for: Street, Bailey, 28 and 29 2012 draft picks
Traded away: 11 and 17th round 2012 draft picks
Delusions of granduer struck me and when I awoke, I decided all this team was missing was saves! So I completely stomped on the holy SAGNOF rule, and boned myself next year even more.
Pending, already been accepted trade:
Traded for: D. Hudson, Beachy, Maybin, 29th 2012 draft pick
Traded away: 4th round 2012 draft pick
Fully in re-build (or re-non-fuck-myself-anymore) mode. I decided to do another trade. I'm hoping Beachy is for real, Hudson gets his K's up, and maybe next year I can move these guys again for more picks in 2013. 2012 is dead to me, so I'm kinda like the Mayans that way.
*If you know what video game that level name is from, I will give you a kiss. Here's a hint: Crowbar.
Now of course trades aren't the only way to spice things up in the fantasy world. The Waiver wire/Free Agency is often the cheapest, but leanest way as well, of improving your team. I have made the second most moves in the league this year, 42. Many of those are simple pitching streaming moves, but some have a little more detail. For a change of pace, here's me rewarding myself on a few fantasy baseball moves:
Pitchers that have worked out:
Parnell, Luebke, Rauch, Fister, J. Wright, Crain, Gregerson, Stauffer, Nathan. I still have Parnell, Luebke, Rauch and Nathan on my team to this day. All these guys were performed brilliantly for me in small samples. If only the rest of my team worked out so well...
Hitters that worked out:
J. Weeks, B. Allen, Lucroy, Salty, Bay. It's a little leaner of a list, but all these guys I picked up and hung on to for a bit. I still have Salty, Weeks and Allen on on team...which explains how I'm somehow not winning.
Wavin the white flag
Well, it is now July 23 and I'm finally waving the white flag on my fantasy baseball season.
Hey, at least this happened long after my A's threw in the towel for the real baseball season! And yes, that is more like a gray hair than a silver lining...sure, kick me when I'm down. As any decent sabermatrician will tell you, its more about understanding the process than the bottom line results. Of course, that's also been my line since 2006*, the last time we** were in the playoffs.
*Dear god, has it really been that long? Sheesh. My last hook-up graduated high school in 2010. Hey, its not a crime. Leave me alone. She was 18!
**Yeah, I say "we" when refering to the A's. Deal with it. Actually, you should just be used to it by now. I also say we when talking about Wake Forest, USA soccer, South Korea Soccer and occasionally Man U. So there.
Anyways, I'm here to look at what went wrong in my approach, from an objective and pragmatic view. I want to see what went sideways, why, and how to prevent it the year after next...Yeah I totally burned next year trying to win this year. If this were twitter, then I would be hashtagging this #fail #utterfail #epicfail. You'd get the idea that I was dissapointed or something...
Round - 1 - No pick, due to keeper compensation value
Round - 2 - Adrian Gozalez. Zero complaints
Round - 3 -No pick, compensation
Round - 4 - Ryan Zimmerman. Freak injury. Shit happens.
Round - 5- Jered Weaver. He's been a bit lucky, given his BABIP and HR/9, but I guess the K jump last year wasn't quite for real. Maybe he turns it around for me. I was a beleiver. and paid 3rd round value for 5th round quality. I blame myself.
Round - 6 - Nick Markakis. A reach for a mediocre COFer. Again, my fault. Whats the military say about planning? Every operation is great on paper, then the shooting starts? Well, thats how I feel about fantasy baseball drafts. You're damn right I went there.
Round - 7 - Jonathan Papelbon. I broke my rule. I follow SAGNOF's*. At least I try to after my one premier closer to get me 40. I panicked when the market for closers started to dry up.
Round - 8 - No pick, traded away
Round - 9 - Jonathon Broxton - See 1/4 of an inch above. Both of these are my fault. This error was magnifed by the lens that is closers, injuries, and Broxton throwing his fastball about as "fast" as Moyer.
Round - 10 - Carlos Pena. I actually don't feel bad about this pick. Sure, his OPB is mediocre and he loves to GIDP, but...you know, he hits jacks. And in bunches. So as a CI, he's servicable.
Round - 11 - Rajai Davis. I think I broke my arm reaching for him. Again, I fail to follow SAGNOF and it kills me.
Round - 12 - Yunel Escobar. I love this man. He is great. Sure, people in the MLB think he's an asshole, but who cares? He's still an average defender at SS and his bat plays fantastic there. I'm happy with him.
Round - 13 - Matt Garza. Ok, I have a half-finished blog post about him. His K/9 is great. His FIP and xFIP are also fantastic. His HR/9 rate was in the stratosphere, which is ironic, because it was up there in orbit with some of the dingers he gave up! He has since stablized and been everything you can expect from a 13th round draft pick...medocrity!!
Round - 14 - Jorge Posada. Move along, nothing to see here. Just a dead body under a sheet, er, wearing a baseball uniform. I got angry and dropped him. I gave him 112 ABs and he rewarded my optimism with a .287 OBP. He knocked the cover off the ball in June, though. Of course he did. I'm currently trotting out Salty and Molina...I'm gonna go drink some lighter fluid, cigars, anyone?
Round - 15 - Omar Infante. What can I say, I believed his year last year. And I got burned. This is why I hate the NL. This is eligble in 9 different slots, and sucks at all of them. He lured me in with his damn eligibility. Bastard.
Round - 16 - Nick Swisher, keeper. I love Swish. That is all.
Round - 17 - Rafael Soriano. Yup...I'm just not going to acknowledge this at all. But really, he crushed the AL East as a Ray, then the world turned upside down and he went back to being bad. I hate the Yankees. Except Swisher.
Round - 18 - Daric Barton. Had almost a .400 OBP last year. Currently in AAA. #hurtfeelings
Round - 19 - Ryan Doumit. Hey, he had Catcher eligibility. And zero baseball ability!
Round - 20 - Jhonny Peralta. Drafted him, then swiftly traded him away. Kinda regretting that one...
Round - 21 - Evan Meek. We play a Holds league...stop judging me.
Round - 22 - Sean Marshall. I legitly love this man. He and Castro are my only man-crushes on the Cubs. This guy is fucking great.
Round - 23 - Nate McClouth. I got this far, and realized that I only had Rajai as CF eligible, and he is made of something more delicate than glass. CF insurance.
Round - 24 - Josh Willingham. Drafted em, dropped em. Picked em up off of FA, dropped em. Rinse, repeat.
Round - 25 - Brian Fuentes. The bane of my existence. Evil in LOOGY form. If I could send a Terminator machine back in time, I would to stop Billy Beane from signing this guy. Then I would use my Terminator to make Tony Reagins re-sign Fuentes. Actually, that guy traded for Vernon Wells...he might of signed Fuentes again on his own!
Round - 26 - Marco Scutaro. That offense, that ballpark, SS eligible. For a 26th rounder? Sure, I'll take a LAF**
Round - 27 - Ocatvio Dotel. Well, since Fuentes is the embodiment of crap from the left side, I figured why not get his counter-part from the right side? All things being equal, they have the worst platoon splits of all time! Yay!
Round - 28 - Clay Hensley. Noting a theme there with my late round relievers?
Round - 29 - Edison Volquez. I kept him at thist cost, because even if he was terrible, it didn't cost anything. I was wrong. It cost me multiple starts of putrid rates, sprinkled with a few K's here and there.
*SAGNOF: Steals/Saves Ain't Got No Face, coined by the wonderful fellows at razzball
*LAF = LAte round Flyer. I'm trying it out. Feedback?
I give myself a C+ on the draft. I got a few things right, a few things wrong, and overall left with a team that could not win this year. Thus recognizing this, April 2011 me decided what July 2011 me is currently regretting. I blew all of my valuable draft picks trying to get players to plug in. Thats coming next. Right now, actually.
Hey, at least this happened long after my A's threw in the towel for the real baseball season! And yes, that is more like a gray hair than a silver lining...sure, kick me when I'm down. As any decent sabermatrician will tell you, its more about understanding the process than the bottom line results. Of course, that's also been my line since 2006*, the last time we** were in the playoffs.
*Dear god, has it really been that long? Sheesh. My last hook-up graduated high school in 2010. Hey, its not a crime. Leave me alone. She was 18!
**Yeah, I say "we" when refering to the A's. Deal with it. Actually, you should just be used to it by now. I also say we when talking about Wake Forest, USA soccer, South Korea Soccer and occasionally Man U. So there.
Anyways, I'm here to look at what went wrong in my approach, from an objective and pragmatic view. I want to see what went sideways, why, and how to prevent it the year after next...Yeah I totally burned next year trying to win this year. If this were twitter, then I would be hashtagging this #fail #utterfail #epicfail. You'd get the idea that I was dissapointed or something...
Round - 1 - No pick, due to keeper compensation value
Round - 2 - Adrian Gozalez. Zero complaints
Round - 3 -No pick, compensation
Round - 4 - Ryan Zimmerman. Freak injury. Shit happens.
Round - 5- Jered Weaver. He's been a bit lucky, given his BABIP and HR/9, but I guess the K jump last year wasn't quite for real. Maybe he turns it around for me. I was a beleiver. and paid 3rd round value for 5th round quality. I blame myself.
Round - 6 - Nick Markakis. A reach for a mediocre COFer. Again, my fault. Whats the military say about planning? Every operation is great on paper, then the shooting starts? Well, thats how I feel about fantasy baseball drafts. You're damn right I went there.
Round - 7 - Jonathan Papelbon. I broke my rule. I follow SAGNOF's*. At least I try to after my one premier closer to get me 40. I panicked when the market for closers started to dry up.
Round - 8 - No pick, traded away
Round - 9 - Jonathon Broxton - See 1/4 of an inch above. Both of these are my fault. This error was magnifed by the lens that is closers, injuries, and Broxton throwing his fastball about as "fast" as Moyer.
Round - 10 - Carlos Pena. I actually don't feel bad about this pick. Sure, his OPB is mediocre and he loves to GIDP, but...you know, he hits jacks. And in bunches. So as a CI, he's servicable.
Round - 11 - Rajai Davis. I think I broke my arm reaching for him. Again, I fail to follow SAGNOF and it kills me.
Round - 12 - Yunel Escobar. I love this man. He is great. Sure, people in the MLB think he's an asshole, but who cares? He's still an average defender at SS and his bat plays fantastic there. I'm happy with him.
Round - 13 - Matt Garza. Ok, I have a half-finished blog post about him. His K/9 is great. His FIP and xFIP are also fantastic. His HR/9 rate was in the stratosphere, which is ironic, because it was up there in orbit with some of the dingers he gave up! He has since stablized and been everything you can expect from a 13th round draft pick...medocrity!!
Round - 14 - Jorge Posada. Move along, nothing to see here. Just a dead body under a sheet, er, wearing a baseball uniform. I got angry and dropped him. I gave him 112 ABs and he rewarded my optimism with a .287 OBP. He knocked the cover off the ball in June, though. Of course he did. I'm currently trotting out Salty and Molina...I'm gonna go drink some lighter fluid, cigars, anyone?
Round - 15 - Omar Infante. What can I say, I believed his year last year. And I got burned. This is why I hate the NL. This is eligble in 9 different slots, and sucks at all of them. He lured me in with his damn eligibility. Bastard.
Round - 16 - Nick Swisher, keeper. I love Swish. That is all.
Round - 17 - Rafael Soriano. Yup...I'm just not going to acknowledge this at all. But really, he crushed the AL East as a Ray, then the world turned upside down and he went back to being bad. I hate the Yankees. Except Swisher.
Round - 18 - Daric Barton. Had almost a .400 OBP last year. Currently in AAA. #hurtfeelings
Round - 19 - Ryan Doumit. Hey, he had Catcher eligibility. And zero baseball ability!
Round - 20 - Jhonny Peralta. Drafted him, then swiftly traded him away. Kinda regretting that one...
Round - 21 - Evan Meek. We play a Holds league...stop judging me.
Round - 22 - Sean Marshall. I legitly love this man. He and Castro are my only man-crushes on the Cubs. This guy is fucking great.
Round - 23 - Nate McClouth. I got this far, and realized that I only had Rajai as CF eligible, and he is made of something more delicate than glass. CF insurance.
Round - 24 - Josh Willingham. Drafted em, dropped em. Picked em up off of FA, dropped em. Rinse, repeat.
Round - 25 - Brian Fuentes. The bane of my existence. Evil in LOOGY form. If I could send a Terminator machine back in time, I would to stop Billy Beane from signing this guy. Then I would use my Terminator to make Tony Reagins re-sign Fuentes. Actually, that guy traded for Vernon Wells...he might of signed Fuentes again on his own!
Round - 26 - Marco Scutaro. That offense, that ballpark, SS eligible. For a 26th rounder? Sure, I'll take a LAF**
Round - 27 - Ocatvio Dotel. Well, since Fuentes is the embodiment of crap from the left side, I figured why not get his counter-part from the right side? All things being equal, they have the worst platoon splits of all time! Yay!
Round - 28 - Clay Hensley. Noting a theme there with my late round relievers?
Round - 29 - Edison Volquez. I kept him at thist cost, because even if he was terrible, it didn't cost anything. I was wrong. It cost me multiple starts of putrid rates, sprinkled with a few K's here and there.
*SAGNOF: Steals/Saves Ain't Got No Face, coined by the wonderful fellows at razzball
*LAF = LAte round Flyer. I'm trying it out. Feedback?
I give myself a C+ on the draft. I got a few things right, a few things wrong, and overall left with a team that could not win this year. Thus recognizing this, April 2011 me decided what July 2011 me is currently regretting. I blew all of my valuable draft picks trying to get players to plug in. Thats coming next. Right now, actually.
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