Max Scherzer's missing K's

27.9, 23.5, 23.0, 20.0. Those numbers are Max Scherzer's falling K% by year, from 2008 to the present. I'm willing to concede that a bit of the change is from the NL to AL transition, but the different between this year and last is the biggest thing to me.

After pitching quite well in only 56 innings in 2008 to the tune of 3.05/3.33/3.16 ERA/FIP/xFIP line and struck out a magnificent 10.6 K/9, Schezer broke camp with the D-backs in 2009 and started 30 games for them. He pitched decently well, and his 4.12/3.87/3.82 line accurately portrays his season, still with a great 9.19 K/9

After the trade to the Tigers, Scherzer had an up and down year in 2010, even being demoted to AAA at one point. His final season line looks quite well 3.50/3.71/3.68. He dipped to a 8.46 K/9 however.

This year paints a slight different picture. Schezer has fanned a mere 7.75 K/9. His corresponding stats have once again inflated, and he currently sits at 4.28/4.10/3.82. Certainly useful, but still alarms must be raised. Having just turned 27, the Tigers would hope to see him take strides forward, not regress backwards.

To me, the issue is that his falling K rate is directly proportional to his rising ERA/FIP/xFIP. I'm going to see if I can find out exactly what is happening. I'll be looking at 2010 and 2011 data exclusively here, as I believe the difference from 09 to 10 to be neglibible. To the data!

In 2010, Pitch f/x claims Max Scherzer was a 3 pitch man, Four-seamer, Slider, Changeup. This matches his scouting report. We'll assume his 2 FA are mis-labeled four-seamers, and will be added to the numbers. The very top chart is what I'm interested, at least one tab of it.

Pitch Type	Pitch #	Swing%	Whiff%
Four-Seamer	2013	42.0%	6.3%
Change-Up	66	58.0%	13.8%
Slider	501	44.3%	17.6%

Still strong whiff numbers, no? Here is Scherer's 2011 pitch data.

Pitch Type	Pitch #	Swing%	Whiff%
Four-Seamer	1373	42.3%	6.4%
Change-Up	430	54.7%	12.8%
Slider	419	49.9%	17.9%

I'm just as confused as you are. Damn near identical numbers. His swing and whiff rates from this change-up to his slider negate each others change. So what we have here is the essentially the same rates 12.6% Whiff in 2010, to 12.4% this year. This cannot explain the large drop in K% and K/9.

So what gives? I had to turn to his lovely FanGraphs player page. The first thing I looked for was velocity, and across the board he is throwing slower this year than he ever has. His Four-Seamer sits at 92.8 mph, the lowest of his career. Likewise his Slider at 81.6 mph, and his changeup at 81.7 mph. Each of those speeds are below his career average, not just 2010. But even just this dip in velocity still doesn't serve to explain the why the problem remains.

Scherzer's swinging rates and strike rates are nearly identical, but the strikeouts haven't been there. Despite all my research, I'm still befuddled. I'm taking a break for now, but I'll be back by the end of the day to look at his 2-strike counts. Maybe he can get strikes early, but can't finish the batter off. Thats my early hypothesis, but let's see if it holds water.

***

Alright, I'm back with Part II of my analysis, I'm also watching Hook, so if there's a few typos, sue me.

Here is all of Scherzer's 2-strike counts from 2010

Pitch Type	Pitch #	Swing%	Whiff%
Four-Seamer	513	59.6%	8.8%
Change-Up	212	66.4%	17.9%
Slider	103	57.9%	14.1%

And his 2-strike counts from 2011 so far

Pitch Type	Pitch #	Swing%	Whiff%
Four-Seamer	304	57.5%	7.8%
Change-Up	167	62.5%	17.7%
Slider	126	64.1%	8.5%

Obviously what pops out is not only the number of sliders, but the effectiveness of them as well. This year in 2-strike counts, Scherzer is going to his slider more often, to a less beneficial result. As noted above, in 2011 his Slider is still effective, but not even 1/3 of what it was in 2010. More sliders throw, more swung at, but a smaller number of whiffs than ever before? Hmm...we might have it.

My final analysis is that Scherzer has lost an average of 1.5 MPH on each of his 3 pitches. This decline in velocity has led him to throw his four-seamer and change-up less, and thus in turn, more sliders this year. And the hitters know it. If I were the Tigers, I would have the catchers and coaches sit down with Max and ask him if he feels comfortable throwing more change-ups in 2-strike counts, as so far this year it has been his best strike out pitch. This year hitters have hammered his fastball, and are sitting on his slider. His ticket back to the upper echelon of K% pitchers is his change-up.

Tables compliments of Tableizer!

NL All Bat, No Glove All Stars

This is a follow up piece to my last article, regarding the amazing ability for major leagues to be prolific hitters and dismal fielders. And they say baseball is a 5 tool game. Ha.

1B - Prince Fielder
wRC: 74.1, most created
UZR/150: -2.8, 5th most lost
Now here's an ironic last name, amiright? Come on, it had to be said. Fielder has been the most productive 1B in the senior circuit (slightly edging out Joey Votto, 71.5 wRC). Given that that Albert Pujols has been more Albert Punchless this year, can't say I'm too shocked to see Fielder atop the list.

2B - Neil Walker
wRC: 38.1 6th most runs created
UZR/150: -7.0, 2nd most runs lost
Ok, so he's been 4% less than league average from an offensive standpoint, there really wasn't a good candidate here in the NL. It was either good at both eg Rickie Weeks, or pathetic at both, and I'm looking at you now, Dan Uggla.

SS - Starlin Castro
wRC: 49.4, 3rd most created
UZR/150: -7.9, 5th most lost
Another surprise to me. My eye test says Castro plays a decent field, but the numbers disagree. And knowing me, I go with my head over my eyes every time. Unless I have beer goggles on.

3B - Chase Headley
wRC: 47.1, 2nd most runs created
UZR/150: -8.2, 3rd most lost
Hmm. Didn't see this one coming. Partly because I never imagined Headley putting up a wOBA of .350 in that park, but mostly because I never would have ever imagined mentioning Chase Headley here. Ahh, the wonders of small sample size!

RF - Lance Berkman
wRC: 59.4, 3rd most runs created
UZR/150: -22.9, most lost
So he's not even played 400 innings there, I had to put him in this list. I mean, we all know he's had an incredible offensive year, but I think the amazing thing is his defense. I mean, 22.9 runs lost...thats just impressive. Thank the fantasy gods that defense doesn't matter in fantasy. Honorable mention to Aubrey Huff attempts at defense that compiled an amazing -119.0 UZR/150 in only 88 innings of play.

CF - Matt Kemp
wRC: 76.7, most by 13 runs
UZR/150: -14.9, most runs lost by 5
Honestly, I didn't even really need too look this up. I only did to get a firm definition of his numbers. Both his offensive and defensive numbers shouldn't surprise anyone by now. If only I owned him on any of my 3 teams #swoon. Anywho, I should stop saying anywho and get back to work.

LF - Ryan Braun
wRC: 68.3, most runs created by 14
UZR/150: -6.4
Yep, he is what he is. And that saying is probably the world's worst saying of all time, other than "thrown under the bus." Braun is a fantasy monster. It's no shocker to see him a top the offensive list, and near the bottom of the defensive spectrum.

C - Brian McCann
wRC: 52.6, most runs created by 13
DRS: -4, tied with Yadier Molina for most runs lost*
This is absurd. Yadier Molina is an animal of a defensive catcher. I hate defensive metrics sometimes. Either way, defensive metrics hate both McCann and Yadi. Go figure.

Obviously we are dealing with a preposterously small sample size yet. Most offensive numbers have normalized to some degree, but UZR really needs a 3 year sample to be truly accurate. This was done purely out of fun, and to make fun of some truly abysmal fielders.

All Bat, No Glove

As I laid in bed last night, unable to sleep, I decided to once again peruse the single season FanGraphs Leaders board. Not for any particular reason, but once there I found how good and bad Matt Kemp is. His offense has been crazy good, as I'm sure you're well aware, but good lord, his defense has been "cover your eyes bad."

Since the All Star Game is approaching, I decided to make the most prolific offensive and most inept defense possible. All data is from qualified players from this year, so give me a little leeway in the interpretations of numbers. I'll be using wRC for offense, and UZR/150 for defense. This will give you a rough idea of how many runs each player has created and cost his team. Catchers I'll only be using DRS, because quantifying defense is hard enough for position players, let alone catchers.

Here is the AL "All Bat, No Glove" starting 8:

1B - Miguel Cabrera
wRC: 71.2, 2nd most created, behind only Adrian Gonzalez
UZR/150: -12.1, the worst by more than 10 runs. Thats a win. His WAR just lost 1.0 due to defense...in half a season. Unreal.
No surprise here. A fackin gorgeous wRC already, his defense is rated so poorly I almost feel bad for making fun of it. Almost. I mean wow. That's almost the penalty of DHing right there in WAR.

2B - Robinson Cano
wRC: 54.8,3rd most created
UZR/150: -5.3, the worst by 5+ runs
I know Orlando Cabrera rates lower defensively, but this isn't a list of no bat, no glove. Can't say I'm too shocked to see the "Gold Glover" here. I hate that award. But that's a post for another day.

SS - Asdrubal Cabrera
wRC: 57.4, the most runs created by a comfortable 6
UZR/150: -4.1, second most runs lost
This comes a pretty big surprise. Everyone knows what a hellova year Asdrubal is having at the dish, but I never viewed him as that bad of a defensive shortstop. I looked up his career numbers and sure enough, he's been bad his whole career there. Don't worry, BBTN still gives him web gems. And yes, any other year, Jeter would be the run away at this spot. Normally he's at least good at one part of baseball, but not this year!

3B - Mark Reynolds
wRC: 51.4, 2nd most created
UZR/150: -32.7, hands down the most lost, by a mind blowing 20.6 runs!
The words you're looking for are spilled on the floor from when your jaw dropped. At least that's what happened to me. That is so unimaginably bad that words elude me. I have to move on. otherwise my head might explode.

RF - Brennan Boesch*
wRC: 51.7, 3rd most created
UZR/150: -6.7, second most lost
*So I'm kind of cheating here. Boesch has spent the majority of his time in RF, but almost as much in LF. I was just shocked to see his name as the 3rd most wRC in the AL, behind the monster Joey Bats and 3 True Out Quentins.

CF - Adam Jones
wRC: 46.5, 4th most created
UZR/150: -18.8, most lost
He gets lost in the AL East sometimes, but this guy can really stick. And since he plays in the AL East, non Yankee or Sawx division, we're done talking about him. At least he got more words here than ESPN has given the O's all season! At least that's what a little blue bird told me...poor Torono. Also, between this guy "fielding" Center, and that disaster at 3B, I can't believe the O's pitchers haven't gone on strike yet. And now the O's might hire me for all this ink I'm giving them!

LF - Josh Willingham*
wRC: 29.3, 8th most
UZR/150: -16.3, 2nd most lost.
*Manipulated the numbers a bit here too. He doesn't quite qualify, but I've seen enough of him attempting to play LF that I'm sticking him here. And yes, that isn't a typo. He hasn't even created 30 runs yet. I swear I hate being an A's fan sometimes.

C - Kurt Suzuki*
wRC: 25.0, 6th most
DRS: -3, 2nd most in the AL
*Fucking catchers, they only play 4 times a week, if that. They're all split timing and platooning. I had to put someone here, just like my A's had to put someone in the All Star game. *sigh*

This AL team would put up 12 runs a game, and give up 10. I think this should be the the starting 8 for the ASG. The best thing about a format like this would be that neither pitcher would be happy about! And isn't that what the ASG is all about? Making sure no one is happy, just all equally angry?

The NL lineup will be posted tomorrow! I think I'm going to optimize the lineups, then figure out which team would score and give up more runs. And yes, this is entertaining to me.

Daric Barton falls off a Cliff Pennington

I've already slightly touched on my sentiment of Daric Barton my last post, but truth be told I really do love the guy. I mean come on...who else do you know that owns a Daric Barton shirt?* Anyways, cute title puns aside, my beloved Oakland A's cannot win with a first basemen who hits like a shortstop. Actually, Pennington has a higher wOBA at .293 than Barton's putrid .275. Kansas City's all glove-no bat short stop, Alcides Escobar, currently sports a wOBA of .274. Hows that for some peer persepctive? Due to this offensive futility as well as Barton's usually above average defense also taking a dive, the A's have been forced to option Barton down to AAA. Given the small sample size of this year, the question isn't it IF it was the right thing to to do, but exactly how justified was the move? Now that's to say that it's acceptable to have wRC+ of 75 at first base, but lets take a bit of a deeper look at his numbers

*I also have an Eric Chavez, Kurt Suzuki, and I've ordered a Craig Breslow one. Random players, I know. But hey, my fandom knows no bounds.

Coming from the trade with St. Louis that sent Mark Mulder out of town, Barton has never projected as a power hitting first basemen. His ceiling was always that of a 40 doubles, .400 OPB kind of guy. And if only prospects would reach their ceiling, what a wonderful land this would be. Anywho, when a player offensive numbers hit the fan like so, my first instinct is to check for any glaring abnormalities in his BABIP, LD%, BB%, K%, and finally O-swing% to see if he is pressing too much and therefore chasing pitches.

	Career	2011
BABIP	0.294	0.260
LD%	20.5	19.4
BB%	14.2	13.9
K%	19.3	19.9
O-Sw%	16.2	17.6

Now, I haven't yet decided to do a heat map of his pitch recognition or anything to like, and now I don't really see the need to. To be honest, I think we can safely say that our friend Daric Barton has simply been a victim of bad luck. Would it be great if he learned how to ISO .250 over night? Of course. But we know that won't happen. BABIP takes a long time to normalize, sometimes even a full baseball season isn't a long enough time. The A's made the right choice in the demoting Barton, however I would expect him to be back up sooner rather than later. His approach appears to be fine and unchanged. Simply put, the BABIP gods decided to toy with his emotions thus far this year. He'll be back.

WAR, and why to be WARY of it...get it?

See what I did up there? WAR, Wins Above Replacement, and wary, you know, cautious, careful...hey shut up. If you want your 0.00 back for reading this, then be my guest.

Now, if you're reading this, you should know that I am probably the biggest fan of FanGraphs for at least a 200 mile radius. I love everything they do. I love their writers, especially Dave Cameron, Jonah Keri and possibly my favorite, Carson Cistulli.

Anyways, FanGraphs has a beautiful Library that will serve you far more than my words here can describe WAR. Long story short, WAR tries to quantify the value of a player, any player, regardless of league, team or position compared to the AAA or bench player. Hence, the exact wording Wins Above Replacement (player). I won't get into the fWAR vs rWAR debate and differences here, as again, it can be found in much more clearly yet much less words at the FanGraphs site. Just go to it already. I'm going to keep plugging it until you do.

Anyways, the point of this post was inspired by this article. What I'm most intrigued by here is how the author cites WAR, notes UZR and then Total Zone metrics. He then goes on to explain the lack possibility of each system recording different findings, and then how MLB teams have their own systems, which could even further dilute, or clear, the muddled waters of defensive metrics.

I have no issue with Bill Barnwell, in fact I loved his article and look forward to many more, I just have an issue with WAR and UZR being noted in a publication and not noting the sheer volatility that can accompany each statistic.

Daric Barton was a 5.1 WAR player last year. To put that into some sort of perspective, Chase Utley was at 5.4 WAR, Jay Bruce at 5.3, Brandon Phillips at 4.3, David Wright at 4.0 WAR

Anything wrong with that picture? Lets move on for now.

In 2009 Franklin Gutierrez was an alien.

He had to be. He put up a 6.3 WAR. Six wins! SIX! That's the difference between playoffs and couch-sitting come October for a lot of teams. A 6 WAR season is impressive to say the least. How did he do that? He must have mashed, at least as far as one can mash in the SafeCo. Except he didn't really hit that well. Sure, a CF with a wRC+ of 105 in a full season is nothing to scoff at, but that cannot explain his value jump. And it doesn't. Gutierrez's massive jump in value, came from a huge up-shoot in his UZR, which reflected upon his WAR. In 2009, he was estimated to save 28.9 runs above replacement before you calculate what he did at the plate. The word you're looking for here isn't astronomical. That word wouldn't do his numbers justice that year. The word you want to use is assassin, because whenever Gutierrez was in CF, fly balls were sent there to die. In seasons accumulating over 400 PA Gutierrez's WAR is 2.3, 6.3, 1.9. Which one of these is not like the other?

Now that we've seen how a single season of UZR data can be absolutely distort that season's WAR, lets go back and look at 2010 Barton a little differently. He had a .3589 wOBA, wRC+ of 127. Well above league average on both accounts. Unfortunately, his WAR was also falsely inflated by saving 12 runs above average on defense. Unless Keith Hernandez died and was reincarnated as another first basemen, this time with even less power, then I think we've found our 5 WAR season outlier.

I'm not ripping on Barnwell, FanGraphs, numbers or anything like that. I just hate when a writer fails to convey the thought that even though it's a long baseball season, one year of UZR data, and by extension one year of WAR, is taken as gospel. I believe in the numbers, I really do. I'm just a little wary of them.

Breaking news!! A's score 14 runs in one game!

Prior to this evening, my beloved Oakland A's have scored 146 runs. Tonight the bats exploded for 14 runs, or obviously just less than 10% of their entire run output to date. The 14-0 shellacking of the rival Angels singled handedly bumps the A's to 4th in Run Differential, +20, in the AL.

The Athletics, Rangers and Angels are now all in a 3 way tie for first in the West, with records of 22-20. Obviously this is a biased post, given my fanatic fandom, but the A's have to be the favorites going forward.

Now I realize that the Rangers have sputtered due to injuries to Cruz and most notably Hamilton. The Angels have felt the effects of Morales being out for the season, and the even worse effects of trading for Vernon Wells. The A's haven't been immune to injuries, as their Closer*, Andrew Bailey has yet to throw a single pitch. The worst news came today, when Dallas Braden will be out for the season after surgery.

*Closers are the single most over-rated position on a baseball team. I firmly believe any decent reliever will be a good closer. Is it harder to enter a clean inning with the bases empty, or be thrust mid inning with runner(s) on base? Actually, I shouldn't rip Closers. Bullpens in general are an issue to me, but thats another post entirely

After ruling out further unforeseen events, and assuming DL schedules are within +/- of 5 games, we can begin to compare the Rangers and the A's.

Rangers wOBA and wRC+: .338 and 111
A's wOBA and wRC+: .295 and 87

Oof. No sugar coating or spin control there. That is just ass-ugly for the A's. Fortunately, Baseball is more than hitting. Pitching will paint a different picture for us.

Rangers FIP, xFIP, tERA: 4.54, 4.16, 5.21
A's FIP, xFIP, tERA: 3.19, 3.49, 3.38

Yikes. That is just as glaring. Given that the A's have yet to showcase their best in baseball defense with a bevy of errors to start this year, and I can safely say that the Oakland staff will not significantly outperform their ERA/xFIP number, ie not like Cahill and last year year.

Based on these numbers and my blind faith, I feel safe saying that my A's will win the AL West.