The statistic I'll be citing is xFIP. I'll also be listing IP, because I personally believe that the number of innings a starter throws is incredible important. It's an indicator of health, which is obviously important. Now, there are literally dozens of ERA estimators and just as many RA calculators, but I'm choosing xFIP for its predictive value going forward. Now that I've cleared everything up, off to the names and corresponding numbers!
New York Yankees
| Game | Name | xFIP | IP to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.C. Sabathia | 3.00 | 205 |
| 2 | Bartolo Colon | 3.53 | 127 1/3 |
| 3 | Ivan Nova | 4.01 | 131 |
I loathe them. Not because they spend money, there aren't any rules against that. It's because of the MSM love and obsession with them. There's 29 other teams guys, come on. Also, for the playoff defeats. But that's an especially bitter subject. Moving on. Intuitively, I would have assumed that Freddy Garcia has out pitched Ivan Nova, but Nova's fantastic 54.1 GB% carried him to the #3 spot. Either way, If I'm a Yankee's fan, I'm praying for a ton of rainouts so you can trot C.C. out there 4 times in a row.
Boston Red Sox
| Game | Name | xFIP | IP to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Lester | 3.55 | 160 |
| 2 | Josh Beckett | 3.60 | 163 |
| 3 | Erik Bedard* | 3.42 | 117 1/3 |
I hate these guys more than the Yankees. I have my reasons. Not the least of which being 2003, but whatever. You could honestly flip Lester and Beckett, and I'm sure Francona will, given post season reputation and all. It's hard to go wrong there. I included all of Bedard's IP, not just with the Red Sox, thus the asterisk. Lackey isn't a realistic option in the playoffs anyways.
Detroit Tigers
| Game | Name | xFIP | IP to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Verlander | 3.03 | 215 2/3 |
| 2 | Max Scherzer | 3.78 | 165 1/3 |
| 3 | Dough Fister* | 3.89 | 174 2/3 |
Ah yes, the local sports collective. I'm still bitter over 2006, but I'll live. Again, I've included both of Fister's teams here. This is a pretty easy call, JV is pitching like a man possessed, and Scherzer and Fister are very different pitchers, but they get very similar results. Move along folks, nothing to see here.
Texas Rangers
| Game | Name | xFIP | IP to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Wilson | 3.47 | 186 | |
| 2 | Derek Holland | 3.88 | 165 1/3 |
| 3 | Alexi Ogando | 3.89 | 151 1/3 |
| 4 | Matt Harrison | 3.90 | 153 |
I had to inlcude the top 4 pitchers here, because as you can see, they're all remarkably similar. This even leaves off Colby Lewis, who's thrown 172 Innings, but to a xFIP of 4.14, making him the odd man out. Then again, if I'm Ron Washington, I'm lining myself up for a 1-2-3 of Wilson, Holland, Harrison, in that order. the groundball rate is the difference maker here for me, and Ogando only gets a worm burnder 36.2% of the time. That won't (literally) fly in Yankee Stadium or Fenway too well.
Los Angeles Angels of Los Angeles' Largest, Richest and Whitest Suburb
| Game | Name | xFIP | IP to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Haren | 3.26 | 193 2/3 |
| 2 | Ervin Santana | 3.71 | 197 |
| 3 | Jered Weaver | 3.73 | 201 1/3 |
So, speakiin of things I didn't see coming: that up there. I had no idea Weaver would have the 3rd best xFIP. Granted, thats a ridiculously marginal amount, but still. Obviously Scosicapath isn't crazy enough to start Santana over Weaver. In fact, I doubt he would start Haren before Weaver, but this is at least interesting. I'd still trot out Weaver, Haren, Santana, though it's closer for the top 2 than I would have guessed.
Philadelphia Phillies - Spoiler Alert! Prepare to not be surprised at all!
| Game | Name | xFIP | IP to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roy Halladay | 2.57 | 189 2/3 |
| 2 | Cliff Lee | 2.73 | 178 |
| 3 | Cole Hamels | 2.9 | 186 |
Yerp. Just as expected. Honestly, this is a such a no brainer, I'm insulted at myself for taking the time to look this up.
Atlanta Braves
| Game | Name | xFIP | IP to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Beachy | 3.23 | 114 1/3 |
| 2 | Tommy Hanson | 3.24 | 130 |
| 3 | Tim Hudson | 3.50 | 177 |
| 4 | Derek Lowe | 3.6 | 157 1/3 |
Given the fairly recent discovery of a small tear in his throwing shoulders rotator cuff, I felt that I should also list Lowe. The downgrade from Hanson to Lowe is steeper than the number would suggest. Assuming Hanson comes back 100%, my ideal rotation would be Hanson, Hudson, Beachy. If Hanson is still hurt, I shuffle it to go Hudson, Beach, Lowe.
Milwaukee Brewers
| Game | Name | xFIP | IP to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zack Greinke | 2.45 | 135 2/3 |
| 2 | Yovani Gallardo | 3.39 | 176 1/3 |
| 3 | Shaun Marcum | 3.80 | 162 1/3 |
| 3 | Chris Narveson | 3.80 | 137 2/3 |
Wow, so ok, 2 things jump out at me. First, I can't beleive Greinke has a 2.45 xFIP. That is so dirty. Good god. I mean, wow, mind fuck. But secondly, I never would have guessed that Shaun Marcum and Chris Narveson have identical xFIP's. Obviously the top 3 should be Greinke, Yo-Ga, Marcum by the numbers, and that's exactly how it should be.
Arizona Diamondbacks
| Game | Name | xFIP | IP to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Kennedy | 3.59 | 187 1/3 |
| 2 | Daniel Hudson | 3.66 | 187 |
| 3 | Josh Collmenter | 4.20 | 110 |
Yeesh. Not a bad 1-2 punch, but man, this number 3 situation is almost as bad as the Yankee's. At least the D-Backs have a legit #2. I still don't know how exactly this team is winning the division, but whatevs, it's the NL. Oh yeah, and because the Giants are starting multiple corpses in the field. That too.
This isn't the end-all, be-all of playoff setups, but this is about as clear of a picture as we can get right now. Having 3 great starters isn't the exact recipe for post season success, but its absolutely one of the main ingredients. Going by this, I really like the Brewers to do some serious damage. And yes, they were my preseason NL World Series contender...my AL was the A's...I'm a homer, and I don't care what you think of me. Besides, I know that next year will be our year!
As always, tables compliments of Tableizer!
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