Gentlemen*, I've felt the need to expand beyond these humble walls of Blogger. I give many thanks to Blogger for hosting me for free for all these months, but I've moved on to WordPress. It's a higher caliber blog, better functioning HTML implementation, it just plain looks better and more professional.
*I was going to start off with the standard "Ladies and gentlemen" but lets be real, no woman reads this. I accept this to be true. Let's move on.
My new site is located here. It's not quite fully up and running, but it will be soon. I'm going to see if I can find a way to archive what I've written here over there, but if not, I'll just hard transfer it over. I look forward to seeing you all at my new site
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Justin Masterson's Domination
When you think of a dominating pitcher this year, your thoughts may wander to Weaver, Verlander, Sabathaia, Kershaw, Halladay, or any other "big name." I'm willing to bet that a name that you over looked is Justin Masterson. That's too bad, because he's been nothing short of elite this year. As a matter of fact, he ranks 7th in all of baseball with a 55.0% GB rate. Fantastic. The question is, are that groundballs valuable to a pitcher? Hmm, prepare to be surprised.
Before the season started, if I told you that Justin Masterson would rate higher via WAR than Tim Lincecum, what would you have said?
"Well, Lincecum must be hurt!"
or
"You have lost your mind sir."
It would be one of those, and I wouldn't have blamed you. Yet here we are, on the cusp of the end of the season, and by FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement, that is exactly where we stand. Masterson has racked up 5.2 WAR in 32 starts and Lincecum 4.5 WAR in 31. Now of course Big Time Timmy Jim could still catch him, but as of now, Masterson holds a fairly strong edge.
That ought to frame his value a little clearer. Now, moving past the current comparison of his value, let's see how so far this season Masterson has been nothing short of well, masterful.* This is Masterson's 2nd full season starting, and I'd like to compare him to another great groundball inducer. See if you can figure it out.
*Masterson still hasn't completed his sophomore season, and thus he can continue to accrue numbers. And as far as I know, the 2004 season is in complete.
If you haven't figured it out yet, Pitcher X is Brandon Webb's 2004 season. Webb managed to burn worms at an even higher rate, had a nearly identical K rate, yet Webb's control plauged him all year. He even had 17 Wild Pitches and 11 Hit Batsmen. So far, Masterson is at 5 and 9 respectively. The only other difference is the relative run environment. As of this writing, the current average AL .719 OPS. The NL average was .756 OPS in 2004. That Masterson has a better ERA and FIP in this scoring depressed environment is not all that suprising, although again, the BB's really hurt Webb in '04. There are other similarites aside from the statistics alone however. Both pitchers have the following in common:
-Height. Masterson is 6' 6" and Webb is 6' 3"
-Strong Builds, Masterson weighs 250 and Webb 228
-Right handed pitchers
-3/4 arm slot delivery
-And of course, both are mostly Sinkerball pitchers.
I look at those simliar statistics and body type and the mind races to imagine what a good pitcher Justin Masterson can become. I completely whiffed this year on Masterson in fantasy baseball this year, and I'm kicking myself now for it. If you're in a keeper league, swing a deal in the winter for him. All signs point to Masterson dominating for years to come. He is quite literally, the next Brandon Webb. Don't be me. Don't over look the value of the groundball.
Table via Tableizer!
Before the season started, if I told you that Justin Masterson would rate higher via WAR than Tim Lincecum, what would you have said?
"Well, Lincecum must be hurt!"
or
"You have lost your mind sir."
It would be one of those, and I wouldn't have blamed you. Yet here we are, on the cusp of the end of the season, and by FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement, that is exactly where we stand. Masterson has racked up 5.2 WAR in 32 starts and Lincecum 4.5 WAR in 31. Now of course Big Time Timmy Jim could still catch him, but as of now, Masterson holds a fairly strong edge.
That ought to frame his value a little clearer. Now, moving past the current comparison of his value, let's see how so far this season Masterson has been nothing short of well, masterful.* This is Masterson's 2nd full season starting, and I'd like to compare him to another great groundball inducer. See if you can figure it out.
| Pitcher's 2nd SP Season | GS | IP | K% | BB% | GB Rate | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Masterson* | 32 | 211 1/3 | 17.5% | 6.7% | 55.0% | 3.15 | 3.1> |
| Pitcher X | 35 | 208 | 17.6% | 12.8% | 64.3% | 3.59 | 4.41 |
*Masterson still hasn't completed his sophomore season, and thus he can continue to accrue numbers. And as far as I know, the 2004 season is in complete.
If you haven't figured it out yet, Pitcher X is Brandon Webb's 2004 season. Webb managed to burn worms at an even higher rate, had a nearly identical K rate, yet Webb's control plauged him all year. He even had 17 Wild Pitches and 11 Hit Batsmen. So far, Masterson is at 5 and 9 respectively. The only other difference is the relative run environment. As of this writing, the current average AL .719 OPS. The NL average was .756 OPS in 2004. That Masterson has a better ERA and FIP in this scoring depressed environment is not all that suprising, although again, the BB's really hurt Webb in '04. There are other similarites aside from the statistics alone however. Both pitchers have the following in common:
-Height. Masterson is 6' 6" and Webb is 6' 3"
-Strong Builds, Masterson weighs 250 and Webb 228
-Right handed pitchers
-3/4 arm slot delivery
-And of course, both are mostly Sinkerball pitchers.
I look at those simliar statistics and body type and the mind races to imagine what a good pitcher Justin Masterson can become. I completely whiffed this year on Masterson in fantasy baseball this year, and I'm kicking myself now for it. If you're in a keeper league, swing a deal in the winter for him. All signs point to Masterson dominating for years to come. He is quite literally, the next Brandon Webb. Don't be me. Don't over look the value of the groundball.
Table via Tableizer!
Sunday, September 18, 2011
Leyland Lives In La-La Land
Alright, so it's no secret that Jim Leyland is umm, creative in his lineup construction. Any decently informed Tigers fan will tell you as much ad nausuem. My point about bringing this all up is to see what the best Tigers lineup actually looks like. Despite being tied for using the DL the 2nd least times, 3, Leyland has failed to construct the same lineup more than 6 times. All season. As a matter of fact, of the 3 players the Tigers have placed on the DL, only one was a position player, Boesch. This lack of consistency raises questions. Apparently Leyland is a firm believer in the "playing the hot hand."
Anyways, I'll be optimizing the normal Tigers starting position players per their MLB Depth Chart. Now I don't know their standard vs left and vs right lineups, and I couldn't even tell from the Tigers' Baseball-Reference Batting Order page.
So, instead of having 2 ideal lineups, you know, like one vs C.C. and another vs Beckett, I'll only have one. Just using a cursory glance at that B-Ref page, intuitively, I notice the following:
-I hate that Miggy is hitting "cleanup" instead of 3rd.
-Doesn't Austin Jackson have a terrible OBP? Why is he leading off?
-Magglio has the most games played being slotted 3rd in the order, at 61 games. Wow.
-Avila has hit in the 8 hole more times than anywhere else combined.
-Leyland is just a confused old man. I wonder if a Boy Scout helps him fill out a lineup card, does he get the "Helping a Senior Citizen Badge?"
To frame my numbers and tell you where I'm getting everything from, I'm using the Tigers' FanGraphs page. I'll be using numbers only accrued while with the Tigers. That should help Delmon Young, and he needs all the help he can get. To construct the lineup, I'll be using the relatively simple yet tried and true Baseball Musings analyzer (Note: I'll be using the 1989-2002 model). Now that we're on the same page, it's time for some hardcore data. Ages 18+ only.
So far, with Leyland's "help" the Tigers have scored 724 runs in 152 games, for an average of 4.76 runs per game. Sounds good right? Well, lets see if they can improve upon it shall we?
Haha, well, the numbers were about what I expected. The best lineup that Detroit could run out there is:
1 - Miguel Cabrera
2 - Alex Avila
3 - Ramon Santiago
4 - Jhonny Peralta
5 - Victor Martinez
6 - Delmon Young
7 - Wilson Betimet
8 - Andy Dirks
9 - Austin Jackson
That lineup would score an average 5.59 runs per game. Extrapolate that to the current 152 games and you get 849.68 runs so far this year. That is very different than the current 724 with the lineups constructed thus far. Further assuming that the defense and pitching hasn't been effected by the lineup shuffle is when we talk the real big changes. Their current Pythagorean recrod is 82-70. Add in those extra optimized runs and it goes to 94-58. Wow. Worried about home field advantage? Want the most out of your players? Betta check the numbers and do the math before you wreck yoself! Hmm. That doesn't quite roll off the tongue as I hoped it would.
Now I know I'm picking on Leyland, but A. I live in Michigan, so I wanted to show the Tigers could be much better and B. It's really, really easy to pick on Leyland.
If nothing else, this post has shown what a stark difference there is between intellectually theorized baseball and actual real world baseball. And the difference is that the saber nerds are right, and the conventional "wisdom" is wrong.*
*After seeing this, I'm going to run this exercise for all 30 clubs once the season ends, to see which lineup was closest to optimal. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Yankees, but it could be someone unexpected like the D-Backs. Guess we'll have to wait and see.
Until compared to his peers, I'll reserve total judgement on Mr. Leyland. However, according to these numbers, he can't build a lineup to save his mustache. And what a shame, as it is a very nice mustache. As a matter of fact, his lineup reminds me of something tragically crashing and burning. But what?
Anyways, I'll be optimizing the normal Tigers starting position players per their MLB Depth Chart. Now I don't know their standard vs left and vs right lineups, and I couldn't even tell from the Tigers' Baseball-Reference Batting Order page.
So, instead of having 2 ideal lineups, you know, like one vs C.C. and another vs Beckett, I'll only have one. Just using a cursory glance at that B-Ref page, intuitively, I notice the following:
-I hate that Miggy is hitting "cleanup" instead of 3rd.
-Doesn't Austin Jackson have a terrible OBP? Why is he leading off?
-Magglio has the most games played being slotted 3rd in the order, at 61 games. Wow.
-Avila has hit in the 8 hole more times than anywhere else combined.
-Leyland is just a confused old man. I wonder if a Boy Scout helps him fill out a lineup card, does he get the "Helping a Senior Citizen Badge?"
To frame my numbers and tell you where I'm getting everything from, I'm using the Tigers' FanGraphs page. I'll be using numbers only accrued while with the Tigers. That should help Delmon Young, and he needs all the help he can get. To construct the lineup, I'll be using the relatively simple yet tried and true Baseball Musings analyzer (Note: I'll be using the 1989-2002 model). Now that we're on the same page, it's time for some hardcore data. Ages 18+ only.
So far, with Leyland's "help" the Tigers have scored 724 runs in 152 games, for an average of 4.76 runs per game. Sounds good right? Well, lets see if they can improve upon it shall we?
Haha, well, the numbers were about what I expected. The best lineup that Detroit could run out there is:
1 - Miguel Cabrera
2 - Alex Avila
3 - Ramon Santiago
4 - Jhonny Peralta
5 - Victor Martinez
6 - Delmon Young
7 - Wilson Betimet
8 - Andy Dirks
9 - Austin Jackson
That lineup would score an average 5.59 runs per game. Extrapolate that to the current 152 games and you get 849.68 runs so far this year. That is very different than the current 724 with the lineups constructed thus far. Further assuming that the defense and pitching hasn't been effected by the lineup shuffle is when we talk the real big changes. Their current Pythagorean recrod is 82-70. Add in those extra optimized runs and it goes to 94-58. Wow. Worried about home field advantage? Want the most out of your players? Betta check the numbers and do the math before you wreck yoself! Hmm. That doesn't quite roll off the tongue as I hoped it would.
Now I know I'm picking on Leyland, but A. I live in Michigan, so I wanted to show the Tigers could be much better and B. It's really, really easy to pick on Leyland.
If nothing else, this post has shown what a stark difference there is between intellectually theorized baseball and actual real world baseball. And the difference is that the saber nerds are right, and the conventional "wisdom" is wrong.*
*After seeing this, I'm going to run this exercise for all 30 clubs once the season ends, to see which lineup was closest to optimal. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Yankees, but it could be someone unexpected like the D-Backs. Guess we'll have to wait and see.
Until compared to his peers, I'll reserve total judgement on Mr. Leyland. However, according to these numbers, he can't build a lineup to save his mustache. And what a shame, as it is a very nice mustache. As a matter of fact, his lineup reminds me of something tragically crashing and burning. But what?
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
One Hellova Sleeper
If you follow me on twitter (and you should because I'm great), then you should know my feelings about one Cory Luebke.
I am a big ol' windmill sized fan of his. Not just because I picked up him off the scrap heap that is Free Agency in a keeper league. Not just because since acquiring him, he has given me the following:
82 2/3 IP, 92 K, 3.27 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Only 4 wins, but hey, with peripherals like that, Wins are a bonus. Luebke has produced elite numbers in 3 of the major pitching categories, including both critical rate statistics. What's not to love so far?
And there in lies the issue. "So far." I'm going to take a look at his numbers to see if I can gain anything of predictive value. This will be a bit more Pitch F/X relient, but when dealing in a sample size this small, I can only rely on statistics so far. I'll just have to use what's best and most readily available to me at the time. Kind of like how WAR isn't perfect, but the Mainstream Media still rips on it.*
*That's an entirely different post. My MVP post will be 5,000 words. Joe Posnanksi would be like "Whoa, too many words son."
First off, let's get a little context. I'm going out on a limb and saying you don't know Cory Luebke too well. What a shame. For all intents and purposes, he is a superstar. The following table goes to illustrate just what type of company Luebke is in right now. Those rate stats below tell the story quite accurately. Once again I say this: He is in elite company. Those are some of the best known strike out artists in the business. And Luebke is either on par, or even surpassing some of them to certain degrees. Justin Verlander who? My boy Luebke has a better K rate and a lower FIP. Where's his Cy Young?
Of course, that is a bit misleading. Once again, I omitted a critical evaluator...Innings Pitched. All those pitchers except Luebke and Hanson (due to injuries) have pitched at least 150 innings. Luebke is at 126 2/3. He has appeared in 44 games this season, but only 15 starts thus far. His first startwas June 26 and was uninspiring in that it lasted only 5 innings. He issued 2 walks, but struck out 6 and gave up only one hit...a sign of things to come perhaps? Whats that? You say he has too low of a BABIP? I retort that statement with some proof that high strikeout guys tend to have lower BABIP. Yep. Proof. So his success isn't BABIP fueled. Hmm. What else could it be? Maybe he accrued all of his K's as a flame throwing reliever, and very few as a starter? You think? Let's take a look.
Before we do take that look, lets check out the absolutely brilliant minds over at Baseball Prospectus. They did a ton of leg work for me already on the subject of relievers turned starters/swingmen roles, etc. Read this, and you'll get a much better grasp of what I'll be doing next, which is comparing the different roles that Luebke has performed in.
What we're seeing here is almost a zero change in velocity across the board, but the movement and the selection of each pitch has changed considerably. This is directly in line with what BP already established above. No huge outliers. The significance of this lack of outliers is that Luebke can now be more accurately projected. Though the list of successful bullpen-starter guys is rather short, the most notable comparison is actually in the first chart. A Mr. Brandon Morrow. Given that Luebke's numbers jive quite well with his, I can safely assume that going forward (and assuming no great-than-normal injury risk), that Cory Luebke will be an outstanding pitcher going forward. My only concern is that he never showed this many strikeouts in the higher minors, but he did refine his delivery in 2009, and he apparently attributes much of his success to that refinement. I'm not overly concerned about regression.
I picked up Luebke on a flier in a fantasy league. Now I can keep him at the cost of a 29th round pick. I think that's going to be a yes. From relative unknown to being in the same sentence, and tables, as some of the best pitcher in the game? Not too bad for a sleeper.
A constant kudos to Tableizer!
I am a big ol' windmill sized fan of his. Not just because I picked up him off the scrap heap that is Free Agency in a keeper league. Not just because since acquiring him, he has given me the following:
82 2/3 IP, 92 K, 3.27 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Only 4 wins, but hey, with peripherals like that, Wins are a bonus. Luebke has produced elite numbers in 3 of the major pitching categories, including both critical rate statistics. What's not to love so far?
And there in lies the issue. "So far." I'm going to take a look at his numbers to see if I can gain anything of predictive value. This will be a bit more Pitch F/X relient, but when dealing in a sample size this small, I can only rely on statistics so far. I'll just have to use what's best and most readily available to me at the time. Kind of like how WAR isn't perfect, but the Mainstream Media still rips on it.*
*That's an entirely different post. My MVP post will be 5,000 words. Joe Posnanksi would be like "Whoa, too many words son."
First off, let's get a little context. I'm going out on a limb and saying you don't know Cory Luebke too well. What a shame. For all intents and purposes, he is a superstar. The following table goes to illustrate just what type of company Luebke is in right now. Those rate stats below tell the story quite accurately. Once again I say this: He is in elite company. Those are some of the best known strike out artists in the business. And Luebke is either on par, or even surpassing some of them to certain degrees. Justin Verlander who? My boy Luebke has a better K rate and a lower FIP. Where's his Cy Young?
| Pitcher | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB Rate | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Hanson> | 9.83 | 3.18 | 1.18 | 39.2% | .268 | 3.67 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 9.73 | 2.15 | 0.55 | 42.9% | .276 | 2.40 |
| Justin Verlander | 9.08 | 2.02 | 0.84 | 40.3% | .237 | 2.93 |
| Zack Greinke | 10.60 | 2.11 | 1.00 | 47.3% | .320 | 2.89 |
| Brandon Morrow | 10.17 | 3.35 | 1.14 | 35.2% | .307 | 3.73 |
| Tim Lincecum | 9.36 | 3.59 | 0.64 | 48.3% | .276 | 3.14 |
| Cory Luebke | 9.88 | 2.63 | 0.78 | 39.2% | .281 | 2.88 |
Of course, that is a bit misleading. Once again, I omitted a critical evaluator...Innings Pitched. All those pitchers except Luebke and Hanson (due to injuries) have pitched at least 150 innings. Luebke is at 126 2/3. He has appeared in 44 games this season, but only 15 starts thus far. His first startwas June 26 and was uninspiring in that it lasted only 5 innings. He issued 2 walks, but struck out 6 and gave up only one hit...a sign of things to come perhaps? Whats that? You say he has too low of a BABIP? I retort that statement with some proof that high strikeout guys tend to have lower BABIP. Yep. Proof. So his success isn't BABIP fueled. Hmm. What else could it be? Maybe he accrued all of his K's as a flame throwing reliever, and very few as a starter? You think? Let's take a look.
Before we do take that look, lets check out the absolutely brilliant minds over at Baseball Prospectus. They did a ton of leg work for me already on the subject of relievers turned starters/swingmen roles, etc. Read this, and you'll get a much better grasp of what I'll be doing next, which is comparing the different roles that Luebke has performed in.
| Reliever 4/2 - 6/25 | Avg FF | Avg FT | Avg SL | Avg CH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed In MPH | 91.1 | 91.6 | 82.7 | 83.2 |
| Horiz. In Inches | 4.93 | 8.6 | -1.64 | 7.11 |
| Vert. In Inches | 8.90 | 7.88 | -1.07 | -0.08 |
| Whiff Rate | 9.1% | 0.0% | 19.5% | 12.2% |
| Pitch Selection | 56.2% | 2.5% | 34.6% | 6.8% |
| Starter 6/26-9/13 | Avg FF | Avg FT | Avg SL | Avg CH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed in MPH | 91.5 | 91.3 | 82.9 | 85.1 |
| Horiz. In Inches | 4.50 | 9.26 | -1.04 | 9.26 |
| Vert. In Inches | 9.69 | 9.29 | 0.38 | 1.73 |
| Whiff Rate | 8.5% | 4.4% | 16.6% | 14.3% |
| Pitch Selection | 67.6% | 3.0% | 22.9% | 6.5% |
What we're seeing here is almost a zero change in velocity across the board, but the movement and the selection of each pitch has changed considerably. This is directly in line with what BP already established above. No huge outliers. The significance of this lack of outliers is that Luebke can now be more accurately projected. Though the list of successful bullpen-starter guys is rather short, the most notable comparison is actually in the first chart. A Mr. Brandon Morrow. Given that Luebke's numbers jive quite well with his, I can safely assume that going forward (and assuming no great-than-normal injury risk), that Cory Luebke will be an outstanding pitcher going forward. My only concern is that he never showed this many strikeouts in the higher minors, but he did refine his delivery in 2009, and he apparently attributes much of his success to that refinement. I'm not overly concerned about regression.
I picked up Luebke on a flier in a fantasy league. Now I can keep him at the cost of a 29th round pick. I think that's going to be a yes. From relative unknown to being in the same sentence, and tables, as some of the best pitcher in the game? Not too bad for a sleeper.
A constant kudos to Tableizer!
Monday, September 12, 2011
A Bit of a Twitter Debate
Shocker: I love baseball.
Newsflash: I tweet a lot.
Shocking newsflash: I tweet a lot about baseball.
Most shocking newsflash: I get into debates about baseball.
Least shocking thing of all time: I get into debates about baseball on twitter. A lot.
Aaaaannnnyyyyywho, given the statements above, the statement below shouldn't surprise you. And if it does, then who are you, and how did you find my blog?
Today I will argue both sides for AL Cy Young. I kind of debate against myself more than anything here, but it was inspired by a friend of mine on twitter. Follow him. He's pretty biased towards Detroit, but hey, I'm a big A's homer, so its fine.
He thinks that Verlander should win the Cy Young. I'm inclinded to agree, but for the sake of arguement, and to be kind of a dick, I decided to disagree. I realize that C.C. leads the AL in pitcher WAR at 6.8, and that Verlander, 6.4 WAR, has that air of a potential no hitter every 5 days, but I'm going to make a different arguement. In fact, I believe that I can make a reasoned case for Haren and Weaver to win Co-Cy Youngs with a 6.1 and 5.4 WAR respectively.
As much as we attempt to differentiate team statistics from individual ones, the main stream media (read: 90% of fans and voters) still like to muddle those waters.
Exhibit A: Pitcher wins.
We all know by now much wins don't really matter. If you're looking for more of a convincing arguement, read Joe Posnanski. He is a mechanic with words and a magician with his arguements. I aspire to write with 1/100th of his talent. Gushing for my favorite writer aside, wins are mostly irrelevant. A pitcher's sole duty is not to accrue wins. It is to efficiently record outs. As novel of an idea as that may seem, it still feels like the vast majority is unaware of that duty. Whether or not a starting pitcher gets the fabled "Win" is a massive amount of work and doing for the team, not just the individual pitcher. I think that statement stands on its own. We have officially debunked the myth of pitcher Wins.
Exhibit B: Marginal (team) wins.
The Tigers have a 9 game lead and have all but locked up a playoff spot. That the Tigers have managed this despite a corpse playing RF for the majority of the season is impressive. That they've done this with a closer who looks like Hermes Conrad is even more so. On the other hand, the Angels acquired the albatross in the field, plate, and bank that is Vernon Wells, and have a decomposing zombie also playing RF/DH. For the Angels to be only 2.5 games back is stunning. Given that the Dynamic Duo of Weaver and Haren is the best 1-2 punch in the AL, 2nd best in the league behind only Halladay and Lee, that is worth noting. Actually, more than noting. That means that Haren and Weaver have combined to be the best in their league all year. They've been pitching to make the playoffs. Each time they pitch and the team wins, they get closer and closer. Detroit doesn't need to everytime Verlander pitches. Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds Report says it all. The Angels do in fact need their superheros to be, well, superhuman in order to make the playoffs. Given that need, the team wins, and in a larger frame, each start by Haren and Weaver are much more critical. Know a synonym for critical? Valuable. Moving on.
Exhibit C: FIP.
I'm only looking at things that the pitcher can control. Well, that and IP, because I think the raw number of innings pitched gets under-rated far too often.
Pretty much too close to call, huh? When the largest FIP difference is about 6.7%, its worthless to cite a difference.
Exhibit D: Subjective Opinion.
I won't lie, if I were picking one pitcher in the AL to see today, it would be Justin Verlander. He is more exciting than anyone else in the league. I think that out of all of MLB, I would only pick Clayton Kershaw over him in terms of excitement. Verlander seems to posses a potential to throw a no hitter every 5 days. He has a fastball that gets faster the deeper into games he gets. Crazy. Sabathia had that in the half year he spent with Milwalkee. Pedro had that for 3 years running. Verlander seems locked in, so to say.
All of this sounds nice, but it doesn't quite match the numbers. The record, you know, what actually happened. An objective fact. If the Cy Young were based on hype, hysteria and "mound presence" then I assume Verlander has it locked up. But it isn't. Its based on the best pitcher in context that year. Is it Verlander? Maybe. For me, right now, even yes. But, with 3 weeks left to go, and the AL West still up in the air, Weaver and Haren can make a ton of noice coming down the stretch. If they pitch their team to a playoff spot, then I'm changing my non-vote for them to share the Cy Young. Even if Verlander gets to 25 wins. Pushing your team to an unlikely playoff spot is infinitely more imporant (read: valuable) than one person accomplishing 25 wins.
And that ladies and gentlemen, is the power of team wins, over the myth of pitcher wins.
You know the drill, the table via Tableizer!
Newsflash: I tweet a lot.
Shocking newsflash: I tweet a lot about baseball.
Most shocking newsflash: I get into debates about baseball.
Least shocking thing of all time: I get into debates about baseball on twitter. A lot.
Aaaaannnnyyyyywho, given the statements above, the statement below shouldn't surprise you. And if it does, then who are you, and how did you find my blog?
Today I will argue both sides for AL Cy Young. I kind of debate against myself more than anything here, but it was inspired by a friend of mine on twitter. Follow him. He's pretty biased towards Detroit, but hey, I'm a big A's homer, so its fine.
He thinks that Verlander should win the Cy Young. I'm inclinded to agree, but for the sake of arguement, and to be kind of a dick, I decided to disagree. I realize that C.C. leads the AL in pitcher WAR at 6.8, and that Verlander, 6.4 WAR, has that air of a potential no hitter every 5 days, but I'm going to make a different arguement. In fact, I believe that I can make a reasoned case for Haren and Weaver to win Co-Cy Youngs with a 6.1 and 5.4 WAR respectively.
As much as we attempt to differentiate team statistics from individual ones, the main stream media (read: 90% of fans and voters) still like to muddle those waters.
Exhibit A: Pitcher wins.
We all know by now much wins don't really matter. If you're looking for more of a convincing arguement, read Joe Posnanski. He is a mechanic with words and a magician with his arguements. I aspire to write with 1/100th of his talent. Gushing for my favorite writer aside, wins are mostly irrelevant. A pitcher's sole duty is not to accrue wins. It is to efficiently record outs. As novel of an idea as that may seem, it still feels like the vast majority is unaware of that duty. Whether or not a starting pitcher gets the fabled "Win" is a massive amount of work and doing for the team, not just the individual pitcher. I think that statement stands on its own. We have officially debunked the myth of pitcher Wins.
Exhibit B: Marginal (team) wins.
The Tigers have a 9 game lead and have all but locked up a playoff spot. That the Tigers have managed this despite a corpse playing RF for the majority of the season is impressive. That they've done this with a closer who looks like Hermes Conrad is even more so. On the other hand, the Angels acquired the albatross in the field, plate, and bank that is Vernon Wells, and have a decomposing zombie also playing RF/DH. For the Angels to be only 2.5 games back is stunning. Given that the Dynamic Duo of Weaver and Haren is the best 1-2 punch in the AL, 2nd best in the league behind only Halladay and Lee, that is worth noting. Actually, more than noting. That means that Haren and Weaver have combined to be the best in their league all year. They've been pitching to make the playoffs. Each time they pitch and the team wins, they get closer and closer. Detroit doesn't need to everytime Verlander pitches. Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds Report says it all. The Angels do in fact need their superheros to be, well, superhuman in order to make the playoffs. Given that need, the team wins, and in a larger frame, each start by Haren and Weaver are much more critical. Know a synonym for critical? Valuable. Moving on.
Exhibit C: FIP.
I'm only looking at things that the pitcher can control. Well, that and IP, because I think the raw number of innings pitched gets under-rated far too often.
| Pitcher | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verlander | 229 | 8.67 | 2.21 | 0.60 | 2.95 |
| Weaver | 217 1/3 | 9.12 | 2.00 | 0.86 | 2.88 |
| Haren | 214 1/3 | 7.29 | 1.16 | 0.70 | 3.00 |
| Sabathia | 224 1/3 | 7.85 | 2.23 | 0.67 | 2.80 |
Pretty much too close to call, huh? When the largest FIP difference is about 6.7%, its worthless to cite a difference.
Exhibit D: Subjective Opinion.
I won't lie, if I were picking one pitcher in the AL to see today, it would be Justin Verlander. He is more exciting than anyone else in the league. I think that out of all of MLB, I would only pick Clayton Kershaw over him in terms of excitement. Verlander seems to posses a potential to throw a no hitter every 5 days. He has a fastball that gets faster the deeper into games he gets. Crazy. Sabathia had that in the half year he spent with Milwalkee. Pedro had that for 3 years running. Verlander seems locked in, so to say.
All of this sounds nice, but it doesn't quite match the numbers. The record, you know, what actually happened. An objective fact. If the Cy Young were based on hype, hysteria and "mound presence" then I assume Verlander has it locked up. But it isn't. Its based on the best pitcher in context that year. Is it Verlander? Maybe. For me, right now, even yes. But, with 3 weeks left to go, and the AL West still up in the air, Weaver and Haren can make a ton of noice coming down the stretch. If they pitch their team to a playoff spot, then I'm changing my non-vote for them to share the Cy Young. Even if Verlander gets to 25 wins. Pushing your team to an unlikely playoff spot is infinitely more imporant (read: valuable) than one person accomplishing 25 wins.
And that ladies and gentlemen, is the power of team wins, over the myth of pitcher wins.
You know the drill, the table via Tableizer!
Sunday, September 11, 2011
2001...A Different Remembering
With everyone else being introspecitve and going deeper into their memory banks of 9/11, I decided to be a bit of a contratian and go a different direction. This isn't to say that I didn't pause and remember the NYFD, NYPD and all the other first responders, Flight 93, or everyone in our Armed Services. I have. To me, the best way of remembering an tragedy of this scale isn't to *only* mourn, but to remember the good too. Even at funerals, I try to not to dwell on the current and sad situation. I'd much rather remember the past, and laugh at all the good times. Yes, to me, a funeral isn't so much the mourning of passing, but the celebration of someones life. I'll be taking that point to an even further length today. Here I'll be looking at how much the world has changed since 2001.
The week of Septmeber 11, 2001 the folling was true:
-The Top 5 Billboard Top 100 songs at the time-
5 - Hit Em Up Style, Blu Cantrel. I can't help but laugh at this. I mean, come on. This song is so awful. Then again, nowadays we have Soulja Boy...Tomato/tomato I suppose (Wow... doesn't translate at all in text. Oh well, you know what I meant).
4 - Someone To Call My Lover - Janet Jackson. Is this real life? Seriously? Wow. Apparently 2001 was in desperate need of good music. I honestly don't even remember this song. I just looked it up, and I do kind of remember it now. Fantastic stuff.
3 - Where The Party At? - Jagged Edge Feat. Nelly. Now *this* song I remember. I can still rattle off at least half the lyrics right now. I'm so happy this track is listed. I might bump to it right now actually. Little known fact: when I first started drinking, I drank nothing but Bacardi O and Limon, based solely on this song. Yep. Make fun of me for it the next time you see me.
2 - Fallin, Alicia Keys. I really have nothing bad to say a bout Alicia Keys. Shes a great pianist, singer and otherworldly song writer. Call me a girl, but she writes some dope music.
1 - I'm Real, Jennifer Lopez. I never was into her stuff, so I linked a much better version. And yes, I totally used to have a man-crsuh on Kenny Vasoli from TSL.
-Upon re-opening after the attacks, the NYSE had its 3rd largest single day drop in history. In one day of trading, the market plummeted 684.81 points. That's enough to make anyone with money in the market weep openly in the streets and start begging for change.
-A gallon of gas in the Midwest, cost an average of $1.64
-It had been been 82 and going on 83 years since the Boston Red Sox won a World Series. They've won 2 since then.
-It had been 92 years since the Chicago Cubs last won a World Series. That hasn't changed. Except now its 103 years. Maybe next year guys!!
-It was the year that this happened. I'd go into further detail about, but my nose starts to bleed everytime I think about it. Jeter, I hate you.
-In 2001, Shrek debuted. That is to say, the first Shrek.
-In January of 2001, Lizzie McGuire goes from pilot to show. Wow. Didn't see that one coming.
-The World meets JD, Turk, et al in the Scrubs premiere. I can't beleive this stuff. I swear I'm old.
Now, to end things, I just have to blow your minds, because this utterly floored me when I realized it... Miley Cyrus was 9 years old when the Towers fell. How's that for a little perspective?
The week of Septmeber 11, 2001 the folling was true:
-The Top 5 Billboard Top 100 songs at the time-
5 - Hit Em Up Style, Blu Cantrel. I can't help but laugh at this. I mean, come on. This song is so awful. Then again, nowadays we have Soulja Boy...Tomato/tomato I suppose (Wow... doesn't translate at all in text. Oh well, you know what I meant).
4 - Someone To Call My Lover - Janet Jackson. Is this real life? Seriously? Wow. Apparently 2001 was in desperate need of good music. I honestly don't even remember this song. I just looked it up, and I do kind of remember it now. Fantastic stuff.
3 - Where The Party At? - Jagged Edge Feat. Nelly. Now *this* song I remember. I can still rattle off at least half the lyrics right now. I'm so happy this track is listed. I might bump to it right now actually. Little known fact: when I first started drinking, I drank nothing but Bacardi O and Limon, based solely on this song. Yep. Make fun of me for it the next time you see me.
2 - Fallin, Alicia Keys. I really have nothing bad to say a bout Alicia Keys. Shes a great pianist, singer and otherworldly song writer. Call me a girl, but she writes some dope music.
1 - I'm Real, Jennifer Lopez. I never was into her stuff, so I linked a much better version. And yes, I totally used to have a man-crsuh on Kenny Vasoli from TSL.
-Upon re-opening after the attacks, the NYSE had its 3rd largest single day drop in history. In one day of trading, the market plummeted 684.81 points. That's enough to make anyone with money in the market weep openly in the streets and start begging for change.
-A gallon of gas in the Midwest, cost an average of $1.64
-It had been been 82 and going on 83 years since the Boston Red Sox won a World Series. They've won 2 since then.
-It had been 92 years since the Chicago Cubs last won a World Series. That hasn't changed. Except now its 103 years. Maybe next year guys!!
-It was the year that this happened. I'd go into further detail about, but my nose starts to bleed everytime I think about it. Jeter, I hate you.
-In 2001, Shrek debuted. That is to say, the first Shrek.
-In January of 2001, Lizzie McGuire goes from pilot to show. Wow. Didn't see that one coming.
-The World meets JD, Turk, et al in the Scrubs premiere. I can't beleive this stuff. I swear I'm old.
Now, to end things, I just have to blow your minds, because this utterly floored me when I realized it... Miley Cyrus was 9 years old when the Towers fell. How's that for a little perspective?
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
Is Ian Kennedy A Real MC?
As my boy Will Smith once said in his song Lost & Found: "Ya'll lookin at a real MC!"
Of course the concept of someone being "real" vs an illusion is quite prevalant in our world of baseball nerd-dom. Now it's time to segue from mid 90's rap (which is fantastic) to baseball statistic (which is even more fanastic). Alright, today I was thinking about Ian Kennedy, which means I looked at his StatCorner, FanGraphs and B-Ref page for far too long. Anyways, I'm going to show you the career lines of two different pitchers. The first is Ian Kennedy. I'll let you try to guess the 2nd.
If you haven't figured it out by now, Pitcher X is Matt Cain (see what I did there with the MC? You're welcome...Stop groaning, I can hear you from here). Obviously there are a few differences here. The biggest and most glaring is probably the home run rate, and the FIP variance is nothing to sneeze at either, but that correlates directly from the home run rate.
I intentionally ommitted a key number from that table: Innings Pitched. As of this writing, Ian Kennedy has amassed 448 big league innings. Matt Cain is at 1291 2/3.
Looking past the sample size comparisons, the similarities are quite striking. Cain has the advantage of a much better home park to supress homeruns, but the defense behind Kennedy is superior. Of course this is just a 2 year blip on the radar of Kennedy, compared to the career BABIP repression for Cain.
A part of Cain's success has been his home park, which averaged since 2005, is an even 100 Pitcher Park Factor, per Baseball-Reference. Cain's defense has helped as well, with a +3.5 UZR/150 since 2005.
Kennedy, logged a few innings at Yankee Stadium and over 400 at Chase Field. In his snippets of 3 years playing for the Yankees, they had a -3.1 UZR/150. Conversely, the past 2 years at Chase Field has been much smoother, with the D-Backs having a league leading +7.8 UZR/150. In his 2 year there, Chase Field has an average of a Pitcher Park Factor of 104, or 4% favoring pitchers. I'm just as surprised as you are. Yankee Stadium was rated at 102.5, again, slightly favoring pitchers.
By now, I hope you have (in my opinion) correctly surmised the following:
-Cain has an uncanny ability to repress BIP falling for hits
-Kennedy also shows that (possible) skill in his short career
-Cain benefits from a slight above average defense in a perfectly neutral park
-Kennedy has the luck of a fantastic defense behind him in a slight pitchers park
At this point, much of the saber community is willing to give Cain a bit of slack, as he's show his BABIP to be a repeatable skill. As for Kennedy, the jury is still out. We all know the unusal creature that is Matt Cain by now. In fact, if you google "FanGraphs, Matt Cain" 6 out of the top 7 results are articles about him, mostly regarding his ability to keep a low BABIP. I wonder now, if this offseason we will see a similar number of posts regarding Ian Kennedy?
Hear me out, I'm not saying that Ian Kennedy is guarenteed to be the next Matt Cain. I need to see about 400 more innings out of him with this surpressed BABIP before I totally buy it, but if you're asking me if I think he could turn into one?
Yes he Cain!
As usual, table compliments of Tableizer!
Of course the concept of someone being "real" vs an illusion is quite prevalant in our world of baseball nerd-dom. Now it's time to segue from mid 90's rap (which is fantastic) to baseball statistic (which is even more fanastic). Alright, today I was thinking about Ian Kennedy, which means I looked at his StatCorner, FanGraphs and B-Ref page for far too long. Anyways, I'm going to show you the career lines of two different pitchers. The first is Ian Kennedy. I'll let you try to guess the 2nd.
| K Rate | BB Rate | HR/9 | BABIP | GB Rate | ERA | FIP | xFIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Kennedy | 19.9% | 8.6% | 0.75 | .265 | 37.0% | 3.74 | 4.06 | 4.10 |
| Pitcher X | 20.1% | 8.4% | 1.02 | .267 | 37.8% | 3.36 | 3.69 | 4.25 |
If you haven't figured it out by now, Pitcher X is Matt Cain (see what I did there with the MC? You're welcome...Stop groaning, I can hear you from here). Obviously there are a few differences here. The biggest and most glaring is probably the home run rate, and the FIP variance is nothing to sneeze at either, but that correlates directly from the home run rate.
I intentionally ommitted a key number from that table: Innings Pitched. As of this writing, Ian Kennedy has amassed 448 big league innings. Matt Cain is at 1291 2/3.
Looking past the sample size comparisons, the similarities are quite striking. Cain has the advantage of a much better home park to supress homeruns, but the defense behind Kennedy is superior. Of course this is just a 2 year blip on the radar of Kennedy, compared to the career BABIP repression for Cain.
A part of Cain's success has been his home park, which averaged since 2005, is an even 100 Pitcher Park Factor, per Baseball-Reference. Cain's defense has helped as well, with a +3.5 UZR/150 since 2005.
Kennedy, logged a few innings at Yankee Stadium and over 400 at Chase Field. In his snippets of 3 years playing for the Yankees, they had a -3.1 UZR/150. Conversely, the past 2 years at Chase Field has been much smoother, with the D-Backs having a league leading +7.8 UZR/150. In his 2 year there, Chase Field has an average of a Pitcher Park Factor of 104, or 4% favoring pitchers. I'm just as surprised as you are. Yankee Stadium was rated at 102.5, again, slightly favoring pitchers.
By now, I hope you have (in my opinion) correctly surmised the following:
-Cain has an uncanny ability to repress BIP falling for hits
-Kennedy also shows that (possible) skill in his short career
-Cain benefits from a slight above average defense in a perfectly neutral park
-Kennedy has the luck of a fantastic defense behind him in a slight pitchers park
At this point, much of the saber community is willing to give Cain a bit of slack, as he's show his BABIP to be a repeatable skill. As for Kennedy, the jury is still out. We all know the unusal creature that is Matt Cain by now. In fact, if you google "FanGraphs, Matt Cain" 6 out of the top 7 results are articles about him, mostly regarding his ability to keep a low BABIP. I wonder now, if this offseason we will see a similar number of posts regarding Ian Kennedy?
Hear me out, I'm not saying that Ian Kennedy is guarenteed to be the next Matt Cain. I need to see about 400 more innings out of him with this surpressed BABIP before I totally buy it, but if you're asking me if I think he could turn into one?
Yes he Cain!
As usual, table compliments of Tableizer!
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Playoff Rotations!
As pointed out here, the playoff race is largely decided. Sure, the Rangers could collapse, but really, at this point, we know the 8 teams. For kicks and giggles, I'll include the Angels in this article too. I'm looking at each teams (probable and honestly, the most sensical) playoff rotations. I'm only looking at this season's data and I'll be doing this exercise, assuming that there won't be a 1 game playoff, and that each team can set it's rotation.
The statistic I'll be citing is xFIP. I'll also be listing IP, because I personally believe that the number of innings a starter throws is incredible important. It's an indicator of health, which is obviously important. Now, there are literally dozens of ERA estimators and just as many RA calculators, but I'm choosing xFIP for its predictive value going forward. Now that I've cleared everything up, off to the names and corresponding numbers!
New York Yankees
I loathe them. Not because they spend money, there aren't any rules against that. It's because of the MSM love and obsession with them. There's 29 other teams guys, come on. Also, for the playoff defeats. But that's an especially bitter subject. Moving on. Intuitively, I would have assumed that Freddy Garcia has out pitched Ivan Nova, but Nova's fantastic 54.1 GB% carried him to the #3 spot. Either way, If I'm a Yankee's fan, I'm praying for a ton of rainouts so you can trot C.C. out there 4 times in a row.
Boston Red Sox
I hate these guys more than the Yankees. I have my reasons. Not the least of which being 2003, but whatever. You could honestly flip Lester and Beckett, and I'm sure Francona will, given post season reputation and all. It's hard to go wrong there. I included all of Bedard's IP, not just with the Red Sox, thus the asterisk. Lackey isn't a realistic option in the playoffs anyways.
Detroit Tigers
Ah yes, the local sports collective. I'm still bitter over 2006, but I'll live. Again, I've included both of Fister's teams here. This is a pretty easy call, JV is pitching like a man possessed, and Scherzer and Fister are very different pitchers, but they get very similar results. Move along folks, nothing to see here.
Texas Rangers
I had to inlcude the top 4 pitchers here, because as you can see, they're all remarkably similar. This even leaves off Colby Lewis, who's thrown 172 Innings, but to a xFIP of 4.14, making him the odd man out. Then again, if I'm Ron Washington, I'm lining myself up for a 1-2-3 of Wilson, Holland, Harrison, in that order. the groundball rate is the difference maker here for me, and Ogando only gets a worm burnder 36.2% of the time. That won't (literally) fly in Yankee Stadium or Fenway too well.
Los Angeles Angels of Los Angeles' Largest, Richest and Whitest Suburb
So, speakiin of things I didn't see coming: that up there. I had no idea Weaver would have the 3rd best xFIP. Granted, thats a ridiculously marginal amount, but still. Obviously Scosicapath isn't crazy enough to start Santana over Weaver. In fact, I doubt he would start Haren before Weaver, but this is at least interesting. I'd still trot out Weaver, Haren, Santana, though it's closer for the top 2 than I would have guessed.
Philadelphia Phillies - Spoiler Alert! Prepare to not be surprised at all!
Yerp. Just as expected. Honestly, this is a such a no brainer, I'm insulted at myself for taking the time to look this up.
Atlanta Braves
Given the fairly recent discovery of a small tear in his throwing shoulders rotator cuff, I felt that I should also list Lowe. The downgrade from Hanson to Lowe is steeper than the number would suggest. Assuming Hanson comes back 100%, my ideal rotation would be Hanson, Hudson, Beachy. If Hanson is still hurt, I shuffle it to go Hudson, Beach, Lowe.
Milwaukee Brewers
Wow, so ok, 2 things jump out at me. First, I can't beleive Greinke has a 2.45 xFIP. That is so dirty. Good god. I mean, wow, mind fuck. But secondly, I never would have guessed that Shaun Marcum and Chris Narveson have identical xFIP's. Obviously the top 3 should be Greinke, Yo-Ga, Marcum by the numbers, and that's exactly how it should be.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Yeesh. Not a bad 1-2 punch, but man, this number 3 situation is almost as bad as the Yankee's. At least the D-Backs have a legit #2. I still don't know how exactly this team is winning the division, but whatevs, it's the NL. Oh yeah, and because the Giants are starting multiple corpses in the field. That too.
This isn't the end-all, be-all of playoff setups, but this is about as clear of a picture as we can get right now. Having 3 great starters isn't the exact recipe for post season success, but its absolutely one of the main ingredients. Going by this, I really like the Brewers to do some serious damage. And yes, they were my preseason NL World Series contender...my AL was the A's...I'm a homer, and I don't care what you think of me. Besides, I know that next year will be our year!
As always, tables compliments of Tableizer!
The statistic I'll be citing is xFIP. I'll also be listing IP, because I personally believe that the number of innings a starter throws is incredible important. It's an indicator of health, which is obviously important. Now, there are literally dozens of ERA estimators and just as many RA calculators, but I'm choosing xFIP for its predictive value going forward. Now that I've cleared everything up, off to the names and corresponding numbers!
New York Yankees
| Game | Name | xFIP | IP to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.C. Sabathia | 3.00 | 205 |
| 2 | Bartolo Colon | 3.53 | 127 1/3 |
| 3 | Ivan Nova | 4.01 | 131 |
I loathe them. Not because they spend money, there aren't any rules against that. It's because of the MSM love and obsession with them. There's 29 other teams guys, come on. Also, for the playoff defeats. But that's an especially bitter subject. Moving on. Intuitively, I would have assumed that Freddy Garcia has out pitched Ivan Nova, but Nova's fantastic 54.1 GB% carried him to the #3 spot. Either way, If I'm a Yankee's fan, I'm praying for a ton of rainouts so you can trot C.C. out there 4 times in a row.
Boston Red Sox
| Game | Name | xFIP | IP to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Lester | 3.55 | 160 |
| 2 | Josh Beckett | 3.60 | 163 |
| 3 | Erik Bedard* | 3.42 | 117 1/3 |
I hate these guys more than the Yankees. I have my reasons. Not the least of which being 2003, but whatever. You could honestly flip Lester and Beckett, and I'm sure Francona will, given post season reputation and all. It's hard to go wrong there. I included all of Bedard's IP, not just with the Red Sox, thus the asterisk. Lackey isn't a realistic option in the playoffs anyways.
Detroit Tigers
| Game | Name | xFIP | IP to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Verlander | 3.03 | 215 2/3 |
| 2 | Max Scherzer | 3.78 | 165 1/3 |
| 3 | Dough Fister* | 3.89 | 174 2/3 |
Ah yes, the local sports collective. I'm still bitter over 2006, but I'll live. Again, I've included both of Fister's teams here. This is a pretty easy call, JV is pitching like a man possessed, and Scherzer and Fister are very different pitchers, but they get very similar results. Move along folks, nothing to see here.
Texas Rangers
| Game | Name | xFIP | IP to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Wilson | 3.47 | 186 | |
| 2 | Derek Holland | 3.88 | 165 1/3 |
| 3 | Alexi Ogando | 3.89 | 151 1/3 |
| 4 | Matt Harrison | 3.90 | 153 |
I had to inlcude the top 4 pitchers here, because as you can see, they're all remarkably similar. This even leaves off Colby Lewis, who's thrown 172 Innings, but to a xFIP of 4.14, making him the odd man out. Then again, if I'm Ron Washington, I'm lining myself up for a 1-2-3 of Wilson, Holland, Harrison, in that order. the groundball rate is the difference maker here for me, and Ogando only gets a worm burnder 36.2% of the time. That won't (literally) fly in Yankee Stadium or Fenway too well.
Los Angeles Angels of Los Angeles' Largest, Richest and Whitest Suburb
| Game | Name | xFIP | IP to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Haren | 3.26 | 193 2/3 |
| 2 | Ervin Santana | 3.71 | 197 |
| 3 | Jered Weaver | 3.73 | 201 1/3 |
So, speakiin of things I didn't see coming: that up there. I had no idea Weaver would have the 3rd best xFIP. Granted, thats a ridiculously marginal amount, but still. Obviously Scosicapath isn't crazy enough to start Santana over Weaver. In fact, I doubt he would start Haren before Weaver, but this is at least interesting. I'd still trot out Weaver, Haren, Santana, though it's closer for the top 2 than I would have guessed.
Philadelphia Phillies - Spoiler Alert! Prepare to not be surprised at all!
| Game | Name | xFIP | IP to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roy Halladay | 2.57 | 189 2/3 |
| 2 | Cliff Lee | 2.73 | 178 |
| 3 | Cole Hamels | 2.9 | 186 |
Yerp. Just as expected. Honestly, this is a such a no brainer, I'm insulted at myself for taking the time to look this up.
Atlanta Braves
| Game | Name | xFIP | IP to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Beachy | 3.23 | 114 1/3 |
| 2 | Tommy Hanson | 3.24 | 130 |
| 3 | Tim Hudson | 3.50 | 177 |
| 4 | Derek Lowe | 3.6 | 157 1/3 |
Given the fairly recent discovery of a small tear in his throwing shoulders rotator cuff, I felt that I should also list Lowe. The downgrade from Hanson to Lowe is steeper than the number would suggest. Assuming Hanson comes back 100%, my ideal rotation would be Hanson, Hudson, Beachy. If Hanson is still hurt, I shuffle it to go Hudson, Beach, Lowe.
Milwaukee Brewers
| Game | Name | xFIP | IP to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zack Greinke | 2.45 | 135 2/3 |
| 2 | Yovani Gallardo | 3.39 | 176 1/3 |
| 3 | Shaun Marcum | 3.80 | 162 1/3 |
| 3 | Chris Narveson | 3.80 | 137 2/3 |
Wow, so ok, 2 things jump out at me. First, I can't beleive Greinke has a 2.45 xFIP. That is so dirty. Good god. I mean, wow, mind fuck. But secondly, I never would have guessed that Shaun Marcum and Chris Narveson have identical xFIP's. Obviously the top 3 should be Greinke, Yo-Ga, Marcum by the numbers, and that's exactly how it should be.
Arizona Diamondbacks
| Game | Name | xFIP | IP to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Kennedy | 3.59 | 187 1/3 |
| 2 | Daniel Hudson | 3.66 | 187 |
| 3 | Josh Collmenter | 4.20 | 110 |
Yeesh. Not a bad 1-2 punch, but man, this number 3 situation is almost as bad as the Yankee's. At least the D-Backs have a legit #2. I still don't know how exactly this team is winning the division, but whatevs, it's the NL. Oh yeah, and because the Giants are starting multiple corpses in the field. That too.
This isn't the end-all, be-all of playoff setups, but this is about as clear of a picture as we can get right now. Having 3 great starters isn't the exact recipe for post season success, but its absolutely one of the main ingredients. Going by this, I really like the Brewers to do some serious damage. And yes, they were my preseason NL World Series contender...my AL was the A's...I'm a homer, and I don't care what you think of me. Besides, I know that next year will be our year!
As always, tables compliments of Tableizer!
Thursday, August 4, 2011
The upcoming CBA
I've devoted a considerable amount of time, energy, faith, hope, frustration, anger and elation towards MLB over the years. It's time for some of that to end...well, all the negative stuff I hope.
This coming off-season (in which once again, my beloved A's will start before their due) is a big one. Everyone is all locked in over the NFL and NBA lockouts, but the NFL is resolved and the NBA is a nothing but a crime syndicate.*
*Seriously. It's all a fabrication. It's almost as bad as FIFA. Almost...
A major part of my frustration is based on the fact that I do in fact root for one of the more frugal teams in the baseball. Not to say that I'm complaining, I don't want this post to turn into a pity party, but forgive me as I get this off my chest: The current MLB revenue structure is one that is unsustainable.
It's not just the major media markets, its the private TV deals (YES, NESN) and the fact that revenue sharing does not encompass those TV agreements. The Yankees and Red Sox are not breaking any rules of course, but they are breaking baseball. The major league payroll discrepencies aren't the only telling statistic either. Draft over-slotting, International scouting, and free agent acquisition are all the same point: Money drives baseball. Maybe more accurately, money drives life, but that's a different post for a different day.
The following is a list of everything that I would like to see fix/changed/eliminated from the game that so many of us love so dearly. Not of all of this has to do with the CBA, but damnit, I'm going to list the changes I want to see here anyways. Mr. Commissioner, take these words to heart.
1. Implement a mandatory salary floor, in addition to the luxury tax. If a team (I'm looking at you, Florida and Pittsburgh) fails to spend X amount, call it 45 million on the major league roster, then they don't get a piece of the revenue sharing pie. The age old axiom of "You gotta spend money to make money" needs to hold water here. When owners are making money by ripping the heart out of fanbases by keeping an inferior team on the field and intentionally allowing free agents to be leave for richer pastures, we have a problem. It's tantamount to theft. Owners can sit back, field a sub-par team and still collect gate, concessions, etc in one hand, then recieve a check from the MLB Commisioners office with the other. It's basic, force teams to spend money. That's it.
2. In addition to the current revenue sharing formula, any "private media" contract will also be eligible to be shared. While the Yankees and Red Sox seem to always spend the most or almost the most amount on MLB talent every year, they still only spend a fraction of what they actually make. Those stadiums charge more money per seat, sell more accessories, and have the most lucrative TV deals. I realize it isn't their fault for being popular and making money, but it is still team money. MLB team money. This must be addressed and corrected. Put it this way: A team makes money by selling themselves. Revenue sharing forces a bit of baseball socialism, by redistributing that money. Why is it absurd to ask the Yankees for some of that 500 million TV contract? Shouldn't the A's, Twins, Rays, Pirates and Marlins get a fair portion of that? It will never really be revenue sharing until everything is shared. Bill James touched on this very subject years ago, and to my utter amazement, its one of the things still not talked about.
3. Free Agent compenesation should be eliminated. Type A and B free agent compensation is absurd. Firstly, it uses a crappy formula for both hitters and pitchers, and the Elias Sports Bureau is a bunch of idiots. Moving on from the flaws of that formula, the compensation is openly mocked and played by MLB teams. You can call it an inefficency if you'd like, I'd prefer to just call it a deficiency. Teams with higher payroll abilites can trade for a player in the final year of a contract solely for the Type A or B status that accompanies him. They can in effect pay 1 season for 2 first round draft picks if they play it right. The richest teams then have all the draft picks too. Umm, what? So, you can get ahead by spending, and stay there by spending more. I forgot that that was the idea behind baseball.
4. Hard slotting for the draft. Example: If you get drafted first round, 9th overall, you will get a maximum package of 4.3 million. Etc. Pretty clear. You shouldn't dangle a wad of cash in front of a 18 year old kid with a full ride scholarship offer. Don't buy him off. If he wants to go to college, let him. Don't tempt him with petty cash. Set the dollar amount in descending order from first overall down. Adjust year to year for inflation. Amatuer free agents can sign to a maximum of say, 50,000. I'm just throwing numbers out there, but I'm trying to light a match in a cave here, so give me a little space.
5. Elimination of all divisions. The best 4 teams from each league make the playoffs. If that happens to be the Phillies, Braves, Mets and Marlins one year, well, so be it. The playoffs are far too important to allow an inferior team in, or leave a superior team out. It shouldn't be this difficult for the masses to think that the playoffs should only include the best teams...
6. 7 game DS. I know this adds about 4 extra days. But 5 games? Come on. Wayyyy to small of sample size. Then again, so is 7, but if the playoffs were just extensions of the regular season aka H2H Fantasy baseball, would that be fair? Actually, yes, it would. Complete teams with depth would then come into play much more. Whatever, at least give us a best of 7 in the DS. More baseball is never a bad thing. Call it an expansion of the playoffs, without adding more teams. Everybody wins! Well, except the losers.
7. The higher seed in each series gets 5 home games, not 4. If you want a true home field advantage, let's give it the team thats earned it over the course of the season. I'd actually be ok with the wild car winner having 1 or even zero home games. "Earn it in 162!" I always say!*
*I have never, ever said that. It just seemed to work. Shut up. This is free.
8. All of this.
9. Expand instant replay for the love of cake! Don't just do homeruns and fair/foul balls. Extend it to plays at the plate, safe vs out and catches vs traps. I'm actually against the balls/strikes replay. I love how some Umps have a hitters zone or a pitchers zone. Baseball is all about the human element, so each pitch call can vary. That being said, we now posses the technology to get every other call accurate. Why wouldn't we as a fanbase and baseball as an institution want that?
10. I tried hard to come up with something here for my 10th change, but really I'm coming up emtpy. Also, why did the number 10 get arbitrarily picked to be the best? Top 10s, 10 best of, etc. Why? The U.S. uses a base 12 system, even that's completely idiotic, but again, that's a whole nother can'o worms. This list turned into a list of 9 because 9 is a legit number...and because I'm hungry and have writers block, so there's that too.
This coming off-season (in which once again, my beloved A's will start before their due) is a big one. Everyone is all locked in over the NFL and NBA lockouts, but the NFL is resolved and the NBA is a nothing but a crime syndicate.*
*Seriously. It's all a fabrication. It's almost as bad as FIFA. Almost...
A major part of my frustration is based on the fact that I do in fact root for one of the more frugal teams in the baseball. Not to say that I'm complaining, I don't want this post to turn into a pity party, but forgive me as I get this off my chest: The current MLB revenue structure is one that is unsustainable.
It's not just the major media markets, its the private TV deals (YES, NESN) and the fact that revenue sharing does not encompass those TV agreements. The Yankees and Red Sox are not breaking any rules of course, but they are breaking baseball. The major league payroll discrepencies aren't the only telling statistic either. Draft over-slotting, International scouting, and free agent acquisition are all the same point: Money drives baseball. Maybe more accurately, money drives life, but that's a different post for a different day.
The following is a list of everything that I would like to see fix/changed/eliminated from the game that so many of us love so dearly. Not of all of this has to do with the CBA, but damnit, I'm going to list the changes I want to see here anyways. Mr. Commissioner, take these words to heart.
1. Implement a mandatory salary floor, in addition to the luxury tax. If a team (I'm looking at you, Florida and Pittsburgh) fails to spend X amount, call it 45 million on the major league roster, then they don't get a piece of the revenue sharing pie. The age old axiom of "You gotta spend money to make money" needs to hold water here. When owners are making money by ripping the heart out of fanbases by keeping an inferior team on the field and intentionally allowing free agents to be leave for richer pastures, we have a problem. It's tantamount to theft. Owners can sit back, field a sub-par team and still collect gate, concessions, etc in one hand, then recieve a check from the MLB Commisioners office with the other. It's basic, force teams to spend money. That's it.
2. In addition to the current revenue sharing formula, any "private media" contract will also be eligible to be shared. While the Yankees and Red Sox seem to always spend the most or almost the most amount on MLB talent every year, they still only spend a fraction of what they actually make. Those stadiums charge more money per seat, sell more accessories, and have the most lucrative TV deals. I realize it isn't their fault for being popular and making money, but it is still team money. MLB team money. This must be addressed and corrected. Put it this way: A team makes money by selling themselves. Revenue sharing forces a bit of baseball socialism, by redistributing that money. Why is it absurd to ask the Yankees for some of that 500 million TV contract? Shouldn't the A's, Twins, Rays, Pirates and Marlins get a fair portion of that? It will never really be revenue sharing until everything is shared. Bill James touched on this very subject years ago, and to my utter amazement, its one of the things still not talked about.
3. Free Agent compenesation should be eliminated. Type A and B free agent compensation is absurd. Firstly, it uses a crappy formula for both hitters and pitchers, and the Elias Sports Bureau is a bunch of idiots. Moving on from the flaws of that formula, the compensation is openly mocked and played by MLB teams. You can call it an inefficency if you'd like, I'd prefer to just call it a deficiency. Teams with higher payroll abilites can trade for a player in the final year of a contract solely for the Type A or B status that accompanies him. They can in effect pay 1 season for 2 first round draft picks if they play it right. The richest teams then have all the draft picks too. Umm, what? So, you can get ahead by spending, and stay there by spending more. I forgot that that was the idea behind baseball.
4. Hard slotting for the draft. Example: If you get drafted first round, 9th overall, you will get a maximum package of 4.3 million. Etc. Pretty clear. You shouldn't dangle a wad of cash in front of a 18 year old kid with a full ride scholarship offer. Don't buy him off. If he wants to go to college, let him. Don't tempt him with petty cash. Set the dollar amount in descending order from first overall down. Adjust year to year for inflation. Amatuer free agents can sign to a maximum of say, 50,000. I'm just throwing numbers out there, but I'm trying to light a match in a cave here, so give me a little space.
5. Elimination of all divisions. The best 4 teams from each league make the playoffs. If that happens to be the Phillies, Braves, Mets and Marlins one year, well, so be it. The playoffs are far too important to allow an inferior team in, or leave a superior team out. It shouldn't be this difficult for the masses to think that the playoffs should only include the best teams...
6. 7 game DS. I know this adds about 4 extra days. But 5 games? Come on. Wayyyy to small of sample size. Then again, so is 7, but if the playoffs were just extensions of the regular season aka H2H Fantasy baseball, would that be fair? Actually, yes, it would. Complete teams with depth would then come into play much more. Whatever, at least give us a best of 7 in the DS. More baseball is never a bad thing. Call it an expansion of the playoffs, without adding more teams. Everybody wins! Well, except the losers.
7. The higher seed in each series gets 5 home games, not 4. If you want a true home field advantage, let's give it the team thats earned it over the course of the season. I'd actually be ok with the wild car winner having 1 or even zero home games. "Earn it in 162!" I always say!*
*I have never, ever said that. It just seemed to work. Shut up. This is free.
8. All of this.
9. Expand instant replay for the love of cake! Don't just do homeruns and fair/foul balls. Extend it to plays at the plate, safe vs out and catches vs traps. I'm actually against the balls/strikes replay. I love how some Umps have a hitters zone or a pitchers zone. Baseball is all about the human element, so each pitch call can vary. That being said, we now posses the technology to get every other call accurate. Why wouldn't we as a fanbase and baseball as an institution want that?
10. I tried hard to come up with something here for my 10th change, but really I'm coming up emtpy. Also, why did the number 10 get arbitrarily picked to be the best? Top 10s, 10 best of, etc. Why? The U.S. uses a base 12 system, even that's completely idiotic, but again, that's a whole nother can'o worms. This list turned into a list of 9 because 9 is a legit number...and because I'm hungry and have writers block, so there's that too.
Saturday, July 30, 2011
Max Scherzer's missing K's
27.9, 23.5, 23.0, 20.0. Those numbers are Max Scherzer's falling K% by year, from 2008 to the present. I'm willing to concede that a bit of the change is from the NL to AL transition, but the different between this year and last is the biggest thing to me.
After pitching quite well in only 56 innings in 2008 to the tune of 3.05/3.33/3.16 ERA/FIP/xFIP line and struck out a magnificent 10.6 K/9, Schezer broke camp with the D-backs in 2009 and started 30 games for them. He pitched decently well, and his 4.12/3.87/3.82 line accurately portrays his season, still with a great 9.19 K/9
After the trade to the Tigers, Scherzer had an up and down year in 2010, even being demoted to AAA at one point. His final season line looks quite well 3.50/3.71/3.68. He dipped to a 8.46 K/9 however.
This year paints a slight different picture. Schezer has fanned a mere 7.75 K/9. His corresponding stats have once again inflated, and he currently sits at 4.28/4.10/3.82. Certainly useful, but still alarms must be raised. Having just turned 27, the Tigers would hope to see him take strides forward, not regress backwards.
To me, the issue is that his falling K rate is directly proportional to his rising ERA/FIP/xFIP. I'm going to see if I can find out exactly what is happening. I'll be looking at 2010 and 2011 data exclusively here, as I believe the difference from 09 to 10 to be neglibible. To the data!
In 2010, Pitch f/x claims Max Scherzer was a 3 pitch man, Four-seamer, Slider, Changeup. This matches his scouting report. We'll assume his 2 FA are mis-labeled four-seamers, and will be added to the numbers. The very top chart is what I'm interested, at least one tab of it.
Still strong whiff numbers, no? Here is Scherer's 2011 pitch data.
I'm just as confused as you are. Damn near identical numbers. His swing and whiff rates from this change-up to his slider negate each others change. So what we have here is the essentially the same rates 12.6% Whiff in 2010, to 12.4% this year. This cannot explain the large drop in K% and K/9.
So what gives? I had to turn to his lovely FanGraphs player page. The first thing I looked for was velocity, and across the board he is throwing slower this year than he ever has. His Four-Seamer sits at 92.8 mph, the lowest of his career. Likewise his Slider at 81.6 mph, and his changeup at 81.7 mph. Each of those speeds are below his career average, not just 2010. But even just this dip in velocity still doesn't serve to explain the why the problem remains.
Scherzer's swinging rates and strike rates are nearly identical, but the strikeouts haven't been there. Despite all my research, I'm still befuddled. I'm taking a break for now, but I'll be back by the end of the day to look at his 2-strike counts. Maybe he can get strikes early, but can't finish the batter off. Thats my early hypothesis, but let's see if it holds water.
***
Alright, I'm back with Part II of my analysis, I'm also watching Hook, so if there's a few typos, sue me.
Here is all of Scherzer's 2-strike counts from 2010
And his 2-strike counts from 2011 so far
Obviously what pops out is not only the number of sliders, but the effectiveness of them as well. This year in 2-strike counts, Scherzer is going to his slider more often, to a less beneficial result. As noted above, in 2011 his Slider is still effective, but not even 1/3 of what it was in 2010. More sliders throw, more swung at, but a smaller number of whiffs than ever before? Hmm...we might have it.
My final analysis is that Scherzer has lost an average of 1.5 MPH on each of his 3 pitches. This decline in velocity has led him to throw his four-seamer and change-up less, and thus in turn, more sliders this year. And the hitters know it. If I were the Tigers, I would have the catchers and coaches sit down with Max and ask him if he feels comfortable throwing more change-ups in 2-strike counts, as so far this year it has been his best strike out pitch. This year hitters have hammered his fastball, and are sitting on his slider. His ticket back to the upper echelon of K% pitchers is his change-up.
Tables compliments of Tableizer!
After pitching quite well in only 56 innings in 2008 to the tune of 3.05/3.33/3.16 ERA/FIP/xFIP line and struck out a magnificent 10.6 K/9, Schezer broke camp with the D-backs in 2009 and started 30 games for them. He pitched decently well, and his 4.12/3.87/3.82 line accurately portrays his season, still with a great 9.19 K/9
After the trade to the Tigers, Scherzer had an up and down year in 2010, even being demoted to AAA at one point. His final season line looks quite well 3.50/3.71/3.68. He dipped to a 8.46 K/9 however.
This year paints a slight different picture. Schezer has fanned a mere 7.75 K/9. His corresponding stats have once again inflated, and he currently sits at 4.28/4.10/3.82. Certainly useful, but still alarms must be raised. Having just turned 27, the Tigers would hope to see him take strides forward, not regress backwards.
To me, the issue is that his falling K rate is directly proportional to his rising ERA/FIP/xFIP. I'm going to see if I can find out exactly what is happening. I'll be looking at 2010 and 2011 data exclusively here, as I believe the difference from 09 to 10 to be neglibible. To the data!
In 2010, Pitch f/x claims Max Scherzer was a 3 pitch man, Four-seamer, Slider, Changeup. This matches his scouting report. We'll assume his 2 FA are mis-labeled four-seamers, and will be added to the numbers. The very top chart is what I'm interested, at least one tab of it.
| Pitch Type | Pitch # | Swing% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 2013 | 42.0% | 6.3% |
| Change-Up | 66 | 58.0% | 13.8% |
| Slider | 501 | 44.3% | 17.6% |
Still strong whiff numbers, no? Here is Scherer's 2011 pitch data.
| Pitch Type | Pitch # | Swing% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 1373 | 42.3% | 6.4% |
| Change-Up | 430 | 54.7% | 12.8% |
| Slider | 419 | 49.9% | 17.9% |
I'm just as confused as you are. Damn near identical numbers. His swing and whiff rates from this change-up to his slider negate each others change. So what we have here is the essentially the same rates 12.6% Whiff in 2010, to 12.4% this year. This cannot explain the large drop in K% and K/9.
So what gives? I had to turn to his lovely FanGraphs player page. The first thing I looked for was velocity, and across the board he is throwing slower this year than he ever has. His Four-Seamer sits at 92.8 mph, the lowest of his career. Likewise his Slider at 81.6 mph, and his changeup at 81.7 mph. Each of those speeds are below his career average, not just 2010. But even just this dip in velocity still doesn't serve to explain the why the problem remains.
Scherzer's swinging rates and strike rates are nearly identical, but the strikeouts haven't been there. Despite all my research, I'm still befuddled. I'm taking a break for now, but I'll be back by the end of the day to look at his 2-strike counts. Maybe he can get strikes early, but can't finish the batter off. Thats my early hypothesis, but let's see if it holds water.
***
Alright, I'm back with Part II of my analysis, I'm also watching Hook, so if there's a few typos, sue me.
Here is all of Scherzer's 2-strike counts from 2010
| Pitch Type | Pitch # | Swing% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 513 | 59.6% | 8.8% |
| Change-Up | 212 | 66.4% | 17.9% |
| Slider | 103 | 57.9% | 14.1% |
And his 2-strike counts from 2011 so far
| Pitch Type | Pitch # | Swing% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 304 | 57.5% | 7.8% |
| Change-Up | 167 | 62.5% | 17.7% |
| Slider | 126 | 64.1% | 8.5% |
Obviously what pops out is not only the number of sliders, but the effectiveness of them as well. This year in 2-strike counts, Scherzer is going to his slider more often, to a less beneficial result. As noted above, in 2011 his Slider is still effective, but not even 1/3 of what it was in 2010. More sliders throw, more swung at, but a smaller number of whiffs than ever before? Hmm...we might have it.
My final analysis is that Scherzer has lost an average of 1.5 MPH on each of his 3 pitches. This decline in velocity has led him to throw his four-seamer and change-up less, and thus in turn, more sliders this year. And the hitters know it. If I were the Tigers, I would have the catchers and coaches sit down with Max and ask him if he feels comfortable throwing more change-ups in 2-strike counts, as so far this year it has been his best strike out pitch. This year hitters have hammered his fastball, and are sitting on his slider. His ticket back to the upper echelon of K% pitchers is his change-up.
Tables compliments of Tableizer!
Saturday, July 23, 2011
NL Prospect Primer
And finally, after far too long, here is my take on some of the up n comers for the NL. You can expect some of these guys to be owned already, but I'll try and cover some relative unknowns as well.
Julio Tehran - Atlanta Braves, SP
Thus far in AAA, he is striking out a few less batters in previous years, just 7.8 k/9, but is barely walking anyone either. He sports a BB/9 rate of just 2.5, his best since A+ ball. He has a strong mid 90's four seamer that can touch 96. His curve is above average, and so is his changeup. There have been talks about him tipping pitches, and it is noticable in his arm speed from his four seamer to his changeup. I'd expect him to work out of the 'Pen this year, ala Price for the Rays in 2009. Going into 2012, I suppose you could take a flyer on him, but wait until the 4th tier pitchers start going, unless you're in a keeper league of course. My personal major league comp would be a right handed Ted Lilly. Useful, but not a star. Baseball America loves him, so does BP, but I just don't see it. Not until he refines his delivery will he ever live up to his expectations.
ETA: September call up, breaks camp with Braves in 2012. All keeper leagues should own him. Any redraft you can ignore him til next year.
Devin Mesoraco - Cincinnati Reds, Catcher.
Wow. After his metoric rise in 2010 where he jumped 3 levels A+ to AA to AAA, his stock still continues to rise. Pre-2011, Baseball America had him at 64, with questions about his health and ability to stay behind the dish. So far in 2011, he has caught 69 games, and DH'd another 17. The Red's don't have a DH* and they have some guy named Votto currently manning 1B. I would expect the Reds to hope and pray that Mesoraco can stick behind the plate. With another hot prospect in Yasmani Grandal behind him and hoping to also catch for the big league club, it seems as though Mesoraco has overcome all doubts about his game. In 366 PA, his triple slash is .309/.383/.512. He has 10 homers, and 32, yes, 32 doubles already. As a Catcher. What? He even has 2 triples. With the straight platoon of Hanigan and Hernandez, I figure that Mesoraco won't be up this year, but next year he should break camp with the club and probably sticks there for life. Hernandez doesn't have a contract next year, and Hanigan profiles as a career backup. Call him Weiters 2.0, but this time the sequel is better than the original. Keep an eye on this kid.
*NL should join the 21st century and get the DH already. Pitchers are pitchers, not hitters. Nuff said.
ETA: cup of coffee in September, probably is the Catcher of the future in Cincinnati. A must own in all leagues in 2012.
Pedro Alvarez - Pittsburgh Pirates, OF
Baseball American had him as the 8th best prospect going into the this season? What's happened? Well, what we've seen from Alvarez is right in line with his scouting reports. Prodigious power, pull happy approach, significant uppercut swing. Multiple holes in his swing, struggles against lefty. Figure him Jack Cust, in prospect form. 3 true out comes for this guy sounds about right. He's currently in AAA, but I expect him to be back soon. He's already owned in almost 40% of Yahoo! leagues, which to me, is too high. People are still high on his name value alone. There comes a certain point in which we have to stop believing in prospects. I think this time the scouts proved to be prophetic. They had this guy pegged since A ball. If you own him, sell high on his name. You can pick him up if you're desperate for HR, but expect a big hit in your AVG. On the other hand, if you're in an OPB league, he could be a nice find. I still say to proceed with caution. If he ever fixes his swing, then he could be a significant threat. I think he's just been coasting on pure talent until this year. Which is both a pro and a con, few make it this far on raw talent. If his head matches his body's ability, then I'll be drafting him, until then? I'm staying away.
ETA: Next week? He's working out swing issues in AAA, but I'm not touching this guy. Maybe a top 75 OF next year...maybe. I'll pass, and I reccommend you do too.
Jaff Decker - San Diego Padres, LF
Rated #82 in BA's 2010 picks, he was left off completely in 2011. Scouts judged him to be fat and unathletic, too bad they were only half right. When drafted, yes, he had a little pudge to him, but he has recently slimmed downed. How the scouts ever doubted his athletcisim is beyond me. This guy can flat out hit. He's currently in his first go around in AA and his triple slash .223/.382/.408 says it all. Low average, low contact, high OPB. What this doesn't show is Decker's power. He's got 14 jacks and 16 doubles and even a pair of triples just for fun. He'll never be Matt Holliday, but he's about a dead ringer for Matt Stairs, in body type, hitter profile, and defensive...concern. With almost a 25% BB rate, Decker's pitch recognition and plate discipline is second to none. Not your proto-typical person to make a prospect primer, I nonetheless have my eye on this kid. I think he can produce a .255/.390/.490 at the major league level. What hurts him is scouting stereotypes and his home MLB Park. He would do well to be traded to an AL team. I think he's got 3 seasons of LF in him, then they have to move him to 1B or even DH. Will he hit to compensate the DH penalty? I think this guy has flown under the rader enough that we don't know, but I wouldn't bet against him.
Jarrod Parker - Arizona Diamondbacks, SP
He has been ranked in the top 50 of Baseball America every year from 2008-2011, 46, 29, 36 and 33. What does he have to offer that has scouts so dazzled? After having TJS, he has comeback exquisitely. He's the proto-typical power righty. His 4 seamer still sits in the mid 90's and his slider is rated as plus plus. He had a relatively poor platoon split, but has since refined his changeup and now he resembles nothing but a future ace in the making. He's relatively small, listed at just 6' 1", but really closer to 5' 10" and that is percieved to to force his Tommy John's. His rehab has gone swimmingly, and I really have nothing bad to say about this guy. Call him a strike out pitcher that can give you 6 IP with 7 K's. Durability will always be the question with pitchers of this size, but so far, so good for Parker. He's only in AA, and his walking a few more than I would really like, at 4.6 BB/9, but he has shown stronger control in the past, 3.9 BB/9 pre TJS. If Parker can keep his walks in check, I fully expect him to be in AAA by the end of August, with a probably Spring Training invite come 2012.
ETA: Mid season 2012. You want this kid. Draft him in the later rounds of 2012 if you can afford to bench him.
Shelby Miller - St. Louis Cardinals, SP
BA had him as the pre 2010 #50 prospect, then going into this year, Miller jumped to #13. Why the jump? For the sake of a slightly larger sample size, I'm combining Millers 2011 stats from A+ and AA. He's had 18 starts, 11.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and most impressively, his HR/9 is a microscopic 0.3. He's successfully surpressed the long ball in all 44 minor league starts, as his career MiLB HR/9 is 0.4. Previously, his best pitch, given his 6' 3" size, was unsurprisingly his 4-seamer. He usually sits in the 92-94 range, but this year he has stepped it up to the 97 mph threshold. He also features a low 80's 12-6 bender, and his improved command has reflected in his stock jump 40 slots by Baseball America. His breaking ball now rates as plus. However, most impressively, he has harnessed his changeup to a better degree, and now has a much more effective weapon against lefties. He doesn't give up homers, strikes batters out, and doesn't walk many. I fail to see the downside. Get ahold of him.
ETA: August, 2012. I don't expect him to break camp with the big league boys, but once he arrives, this power righty will be here to stay.
Really, none of these guys have a ton of present value. But looking beyond this season, all of these guys present upside to one degree or another. We all know that fantasy leagues aren't won in the first 5 rounds. They can be lost for sure there, but not won. The winners are the prospect savvy guys that work the waiver wire, reach for prospects in the draft, and sure, pull the occasional trade. I've armed you with more knowledge than most league owners will ever have. All you have to do is take my sound advice and run with it to your fantasy baseball champioship
Julio Tehran - Atlanta Braves, SP
Thus far in AAA, he is striking out a few less batters in previous years, just 7.8 k/9, but is barely walking anyone either. He sports a BB/9 rate of just 2.5, his best since A+ ball. He has a strong mid 90's four seamer that can touch 96. His curve is above average, and so is his changeup. There have been talks about him tipping pitches, and it is noticable in his arm speed from his four seamer to his changeup. I'd expect him to work out of the 'Pen this year, ala Price for the Rays in 2009. Going into 2012, I suppose you could take a flyer on him, but wait until the 4th tier pitchers start going, unless you're in a keeper league of course. My personal major league comp would be a right handed Ted Lilly. Useful, but not a star. Baseball America loves him, so does BP, but I just don't see it. Not until he refines his delivery will he ever live up to his expectations.
ETA: September call up, breaks camp with Braves in 2012. All keeper leagues should own him. Any redraft you can ignore him til next year.
Devin Mesoraco - Cincinnati Reds, Catcher.
Wow. After his metoric rise in 2010 where he jumped 3 levels A+ to AA to AAA, his stock still continues to rise. Pre-2011, Baseball America had him at 64, with questions about his health and ability to stay behind the dish. So far in 2011, he has caught 69 games, and DH'd another 17. The Red's don't have a DH* and they have some guy named Votto currently manning 1B. I would expect the Reds to hope and pray that Mesoraco can stick behind the plate. With another hot prospect in Yasmani Grandal behind him and hoping to also catch for the big league club, it seems as though Mesoraco has overcome all doubts about his game. In 366 PA, his triple slash is .309/.383/.512. He has 10 homers, and 32, yes, 32 doubles already. As a Catcher. What? He even has 2 triples. With the straight platoon of Hanigan and Hernandez, I figure that Mesoraco won't be up this year, but next year he should break camp with the club and probably sticks there for life. Hernandez doesn't have a contract next year, and Hanigan profiles as a career backup. Call him Weiters 2.0, but this time the sequel is better than the original. Keep an eye on this kid.
*NL should join the 21st century and get the DH already. Pitchers are pitchers, not hitters. Nuff said.
ETA: cup of coffee in September, probably is the Catcher of the future in Cincinnati. A must own in all leagues in 2012.
Pedro Alvarez - Pittsburgh Pirates, OF
Baseball American had him as the 8th best prospect going into the this season? What's happened? Well, what we've seen from Alvarez is right in line with his scouting reports. Prodigious power, pull happy approach, significant uppercut swing. Multiple holes in his swing, struggles against lefty. Figure him Jack Cust, in prospect form. 3 true out comes for this guy sounds about right. He's currently in AAA, but I expect him to be back soon. He's already owned in almost 40% of Yahoo! leagues, which to me, is too high. People are still high on his name value alone. There comes a certain point in which we have to stop believing in prospects. I think this time the scouts proved to be prophetic. They had this guy pegged since A ball. If you own him, sell high on his name. You can pick him up if you're desperate for HR, but expect a big hit in your AVG. On the other hand, if you're in an OPB league, he could be a nice find. I still say to proceed with caution. If he ever fixes his swing, then he could be a significant threat. I think he's just been coasting on pure talent until this year. Which is both a pro and a con, few make it this far on raw talent. If his head matches his body's ability, then I'll be drafting him, until then? I'm staying away.
ETA: Next week? He's working out swing issues in AAA, but I'm not touching this guy. Maybe a top 75 OF next year...maybe. I'll pass, and I reccommend you do too.
Jaff Decker - San Diego Padres, LF
Rated #82 in BA's 2010 picks, he was left off completely in 2011. Scouts judged him to be fat and unathletic, too bad they were only half right. When drafted, yes, he had a little pudge to him, but he has recently slimmed downed. How the scouts ever doubted his athletcisim is beyond me. This guy can flat out hit. He's currently in his first go around in AA and his triple slash .223/.382/.408 says it all. Low average, low contact, high OPB. What this doesn't show is Decker's power. He's got 14 jacks and 16 doubles and even a pair of triples just for fun. He'll never be Matt Holliday, but he's about a dead ringer for Matt Stairs, in body type, hitter profile, and defensive...concern. With almost a 25% BB rate, Decker's pitch recognition and plate discipline is second to none. Not your proto-typical person to make a prospect primer, I nonetheless have my eye on this kid. I think he can produce a .255/.390/.490 at the major league level. What hurts him is scouting stereotypes and his home MLB Park. He would do well to be traded to an AL team. I think he's got 3 seasons of LF in him, then they have to move him to 1B or even DH. Will he hit to compensate the DH penalty? I think this guy has flown under the rader enough that we don't know, but I wouldn't bet against him.
Jarrod Parker - Arizona Diamondbacks, SP
He has been ranked in the top 50 of Baseball America every year from 2008-2011, 46, 29, 36 and 33. What does he have to offer that has scouts so dazzled? After having TJS, he has comeback exquisitely. He's the proto-typical power righty. His 4 seamer still sits in the mid 90's and his slider is rated as plus plus. He had a relatively poor platoon split, but has since refined his changeup and now he resembles nothing but a future ace in the making. He's relatively small, listed at just 6' 1", but really closer to 5' 10" and that is percieved to to force his Tommy John's. His rehab has gone swimmingly, and I really have nothing bad to say about this guy. Call him a strike out pitcher that can give you 6 IP with 7 K's. Durability will always be the question with pitchers of this size, but so far, so good for Parker. He's only in AA, and his walking a few more than I would really like, at 4.6 BB/9, but he has shown stronger control in the past, 3.9 BB/9 pre TJS. If Parker can keep his walks in check, I fully expect him to be in AAA by the end of August, with a probably Spring Training invite come 2012.
ETA: Mid season 2012. You want this kid. Draft him in the later rounds of 2012 if you can afford to bench him.
Shelby Miller - St. Louis Cardinals, SP
BA had him as the pre 2010 #50 prospect, then going into this year, Miller jumped to #13. Why the jump? For the sake of a slightly larger sample size, I'm combining Millers 2011 stats from A+ and AA. He's had 18 starts, 11.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and most impressively, his HR/9 is a microscopic 0.3. He's successfully surpressed the long ball in all 44 minor league starts, as his career MiLB HR/9 is 0.4. Previously, his best pitch, given his 6' 3" size, was unsurprisingly his 4-seamer. He usually sits in the 92-94 range, but this year he has stepped it up to the 97 mph threshold. He also features a low 80's 12-6 bender, and his improved command has reflected in his stock jump 40 slots by Baseball America. His breaking ball now rates as plus. However, most impressively, he has harnessed his changeup to a better degree, and now has a much more effective weapon against lefties. He doesn't give up homers, strikes batters out, and doesn't walk many. I fail to see the downside. Get ahold of him.
ETA: August, 2012. I don't expect him to break camp with the big league boys, but once he arrives, this power righty will be here to stay.
Really, none of these guys have a ton of present value. But looking beyond this season, all of these guys present upside to one degree or another. We all know that fantasy leagues aren't won in the first 5 rounds. They can be lost for sure there, but not won. The winners are the prospect savvy guys that work the waiver wire, reach for prospects in the draft, and sure, pull the occasional trade. I've armed you with more knowledge than most league owners will ever have. All you have to do is take my sound advice and run with it to your fantasy baseball champioship
My trade analysis
Here are my 3 finished trades, and my current pending trade:
March 28
Traded for: Juan Pierre, 2012 8th rounder
Traded away: Seth Smith, 2012 29th rounder
Seeing that my team sorely lacked SB, and needing the scrappy, speedy, leadoff-esque man that every team needs, I traded an 8th Round pick in 2012 and Seth Smith for Juan Pierre. Guess who's dissapointed? This guy.
April 8
Traded for: Youkilis, Tulo, Rios, 26-29 2012 draft picks
Traded away: Scutaro, McClouth, Peralta, 1, 3, 5, 7 2012 draft picks.
I win now, he wins later. Well, thats how it was supposed to go. Rios died, so did Pierre. Youk hit an injury bump but is ok, and Tulo is Tulo. Good trade at the time, poor result. Chalk it up to Unforseen Consequences*
July 7
Traded for: Street, Bailey, 28 and 29 2012 draft picks
Traded away: 11 and 17th round 2012 draft picks
Delusions of granduer struck me and when I awoke, I decided all this team was missing was saves! So I completely stomped on the holy SAGNOF rule, and boned myself next year even more.
Pending, already been accepted trade:
Traded for: D. Hudson, Beachy, Maybin, 29th 2012 draft pick
Traded away: 4th round 2012 draft pick
Fully in re-build (or re-non-fuck-myself-anymore) mode. I decided to do another trade. I'm hoping Beachy is for real, Hudson gets his K's up, and maybe next year I can move these guys again for more picks in 2013. 2012 is dead to me, so I'm kinda like the Mayans that way.
*If you know what video game that level name is from, I will give you a kiss. Here's a hint: Crowbar.
Now of course trades aren't the only way to spice things up in the fantasy world. The Waiver wire/Free Agency is often the cheapest, but leanest way as well, of improving your team. I have made the second most moves in the league this year, 42. Many of those are simple pitching streaming moves, but some have a little more detail. For a change of pace, here's me rewarding myself on a few fantasy baseball moves:
Pitchers that have worked out:
Parnell, Luebke, Rauch, Fister, J. Wright, Crain, Gregerson, Stauffer, Nathan. I still have Parnell, Luebke, Rauch and Nathan on my team to this day. All these guys were performed brilliantly for me in small samples. If only the rest of my team worked out so well...
Hitters that worked out:
J. Weeks, B. Allen, Lucroy, Salty, Bay. It's a little leaner of a list, but all these guys I picked up and hung on to for a bit. I still have Salty, Weeks and Allen on on team...which explains how I'm somehow not winning.
March 28
Traded for: Juan Pierre, 2012 8th rounder
Traded away: Seth Smith, 2012 29th rounder
Seeing that my team sorely lacked SB, and needing the scrappy, speedy, leadoff-esque man that every team needs, I traded an 8th Round pick in 2012 and Seth Smith for Juan Pierre. Guess who's dissapointed? This guy.
April 8
Traded for: Youkilis, Tulo, Rios, 26-29 2012 draft picks
Traded away: Scutaro, McClouth, Peralta, 1, 3, 5, 7 2012 draft picks.
I win now, he wins later. Well, thats how it was supposed to go. Rios died, so did Pierre. Youk hit an injury bump but is ok, and Tulo is Tulo. Good trade at the time, poor result. Chalk it up to Unforseen Consequences*
July 7
Traded for: Street, Bailey, 28 and 29 2012 draft picks
Traded away: 11 and 17th round 2012 draft picks
Delusions of granduer struck me and when I awoke, I decided all this team was missing was saves! So I completely stomped on the holy SAGNOF rule, and boned myself next year even more.
Pending, already been accepted trade:
Traded for: D. Hudson, Beachy, Maybin, 29th 2012 draft pick
Traded away: 4th round 2012 draft pick
Fully in re-build (or re-non-fuck-myself-anymore) mode. I decided to do another trade. I'm hoping Beachy is for real, Hudson gets his K's up, and maybe next year I can move these guys again for more picks in 2013. 2012 is dead to me, so I'm kinda like the Mayans that way.
*If you know what video game that level name is from, I will give you a kiss. Here's a hint: Crowbar.
Now of course trades aren't the only way to spice things up in the fantasy world. The Waiver wire/Free Agency is often the cheapest, but leanest way as well, of improving your team. I have made the second most moves in the league this year, 42. Many of those are simple pitching streaming moves, but some have a little more detail. For a change of pace, here's me rewarding myself on a few fantasy baseball moves:
Pitchers that have worked out:
Parnell, Luebke, Rauch, Fister, J. Wright, Crain, Gregerson, Stauffer, Nathan. I still have Parnell, Luebke, Rauch and Nathan on my team to this day. All these guys were performed brilliantly for me in small samples. If only the rest of my team worked out so well...
Hitters that worked out:
J. Weeks, B. Allen, Lucroy, Salty, Bay. It's a little leaner of a list, but all these guys I picked up and hung on to for a bit. I still have Salty, Weeks and Allen on on team...which explains how I'm somehow not winning.
Wavin the white flag
Well, it is now July 23 and I'm finally waving the white flag on my fantasy baseball season.
Hey, at least this happened long after my A's threw in the towel for the real baseball season! And yes, that is more like a gray hair than a silver lining...sure, kick me when I'm down. As any decent sabermatrician will tell you, its more about understanding the process than the bottom line results. Of course, that's also been my line since 2006*, the last time we** were in the playoffs.
*Dear god, has it really been that long? Sheesh. My last hook-up graduated high school in 2010. Hey, its not a crime. Leave me alone. She was 18!
**Yeah, I say "we" when refering to the A's. Deal with it. Actually, you should just be used to it by now. I also say we when talking about Wake Forest, USA soccer, South Korea Soccer and occasionally Man U. So there.
Anyways, I'm here to look at what went wrong in my approach, from an objective and pragmatic view. I want to see what went sideways, why, and how to prevent it the year after next...Yeah I totally burned next year trying to win this year. If this were twitter, then I would be hashtagging this #fail #utterfail #epicfail. You'd get the idea that I was dissapointed or something...
Round - 1 - No pick, due to keeper compensation value
Round - 2 - Adrian Gozalez. Zero complaints
Round - 3 -No pick, compensation
Round - 4 - Ryan Zimmerman. Freak injury. Shit happens.
Round - 5- Jered Weaver. He's been a bit lucky, given his BABIP and HR/9, but I guess the K jump last year wasn't quite for real. Maybe he turns it around for me. I was a beleiver. and paid 3rd round value for 5th round quality. I blame myself.
Round - 6 - Nick Markakis. A reach for a mediocre COFer. Again, my fault. Whats the military say about planning? Every operation is great on paper, then the shooting starts? Well, thats how I feel about fantasy baseball drafts. You're damn right I went there.
Round - 7 - Jonathan Papelbon. I broke my rule. I follow SAGNOF's*. At least I try to after my one premier closer to get me 40. I panicked when the market for closers started to dry up.
Round - 8 - No pick, traded away
Round - 9 - Jonathon Broxton - See 1/4 of an inch above. Both of these are my fault. This error was magnifed by the lens that is closers, injuries, and Broxton throwing his fastball about as "fast" as Moyer.
Round - 10 - Carlos Pena. I actually don't feel bad about this pick. Sure, his OPB is mediocre and he loves to GIDP, but...you know, he hits jacks. And in bunches. So as a CI, he's servicable.
Round - 11 - Rajai Davis. I think I broke my arm reaching for him. Again, I fail to follow SAGNOF and it kills me.
Round - 12 - Yunel Escobar. I love this man. He is great. Sure, people in the MLB think he's an asshole, but who cares? He's still an average defender at SS and his bat plays fantastic there. I'm happy with him.
Round - 13 - Matt Garza. Ok, I have a half-finished blog post about him. His K/9 is great. His FIP and xFIP are also fantastic. His HR/9 rate was in the stratosphere, which is ironic, because it was up there in orbit with some of the dingers he gave up! He has since stablized and been everything you can expect from a 13th round draft pick...medocrity!!
Round - 14 - Jorge Posada. Move along, nothing to see here. Just a dead body under a sheet, er, wearing a baseball uniform. I got angry and dropped him. I gave him 112 ABs and he rewarded my optimism with a .287 OBP. He knocked the cover off the ball in June, though. Of course he did. I'm currently trotting out Salty and Molina...I'm gonna go drink some lighter fluid, cigars, anyone?
Round - 15 - Omar Infante. What can I say, I believed his year last year. And I got burned. This is why I hate the NL. This is eligble in 9 different slots, and sucks at all of them. He lured me in with his damn eligibility. Bastard.
Round - 16 - Nick Swisher, keeper. I love Swish. That is all.
Round - 17 - Rafael Soriano. Yup...I'm just not going to acknowledge this at all. But really, he crushed the AL East as a Ray, then the world turned upside down and he went back to being bad. I hate the Yankees. Except Swisher.
Round - 18 - Daric Barton. Had almost a .400 OBP last year. Currently in AAA. #hurtfeelings
Round - 19 - Ryan Doumit. Hey, he had Catcher eligibility. And zero baseball ability!
Round - 20 - Jhonny Peralta. Drafted him, then swiftly traded him away. Kinda regretting that one...
Round - 21 - Evan Meek. We play a Holds league...stop judging me.
Round - 22 - Sean Marshall. I legitly love this man. He and Castro are my only man-crushes on the Cubs. This guy is fucking great.
Round - 23 - Nate McClouth. I got this far, and realized that I only had Rajai as CF eligible, and he is made of something more delicate than glass. CF insurance.
Round - 24 - Josh Willingham. Drafted em, dropped em. Picked em up off of FA, dropped em. Rinse, repeat.
Round - 25 - Brian Fuentes. The bane of my existence. Evil in LOOGY form. If I could send a Terminator machine back in time, I would to stop Billy Beane from signing this guy. Then I would use my Terminator to make Tony Reagins re-sign Fuentes. Actually, that guy traded for Vernon Wells...he might of signed Fuentes again on his own!
Round - 26 - Marco Scutaro. That offense, that ballpark, SS eligible. For a 26th rounder? Sure, I'll take a LAF**
Round - 27 - Ocatvio Dotel. Well, since Fuentes is the embodiment of crap from the left side, I figured why not get his counter-part from the right side? All things being equal, they have the worst platoon splits of all time! Yay!
Round - 28 - Clay Hensley. Noting a theme there with my late round relievers?
Round - 29 - Edison Volquez. I kept him at thist cost, because even if he was terrible, it didn't cost anything. I was wrong. It cost me multiple starts of putrid rates, sprinkled with a few K's here and there.
*SAGNOF: Steals/Saves Ain't Got No Face, coined by the wonderful fellows at razzball
*LAF = LAte round Flyer. I'm trying it out. Feedback?
I give myself a C+ on the draft. I got a few things right, a few things wrong, and overall left with a team that could not win this year. Thus recognizing this, April 2011 me decided what July 2011 me is currently regretting. I blew all of my valuable draft picks trying to get players to plug in. Thats coming next. Right now, actually.
Hey, at least this happened long after my A's threw in the towel for the real baseball season! And yes, that is more like a gray hair than a silver lining...sure, kick me when I'm down. As any decent sabermatrician will tell you, its more about understanding the process than the bottom line results. Of course, that's also been my line since 2006*, the last time we** were in the playoffs.
*Dear god, has it really been that long? Sheesh. My last hook-up graduated high school in 2010. Hey, its not a crime. Leave me alone. She was 18!
**Yeah, I say "we" when refering to the A's. Deal with it. Actually, you should just be used to it by now. I also say we when talking about Wake Forest, USA soccer, South Korea Soccer and occasionally Man U. So there.
Anyways, I'm here to look at what went wrong in my approach, from an objective and pragmatic view. I want to see what went sideways, why, and how to prevent it the year after next...Yeah I totally burned next year trying to win this year. If this were twitter, then I would be hashtagging this #fail #utterfail #epicfail. You'd get the idea that I was dissapointed or something...
Round - 1 - No pick, due to keeper compensation value
Round - 2 - Adrian Gozalez. Zero complaints
Round - 3 -No pick, compensation
Round - 4 - Ryan Zimmerman. Freak injury. Shit happens.
Round - 5- Jered Weaver. He's been a bit lucky, given his BABIP and HR/9, but I guess the K jump last year wasn't quite for real. Maybe he turns it around for me. I was a beleiver. and paid 3rd round value for 5th round quality. I blame myself.
Round - 6 - Nick Markakis. A reach for a mediocre COFer. Again, my fault. Whats the military say about planning? Every operation is great on paper, then the shooting starts? Well, thats how I feel about fantasy baseball drafts. You're damn right I went there.
Round - 7 - Jonathan Papelbon. I broke my rule. I follow SAGNOF's*. At least I try to after my one premier closer to get me 40. I panicked when the market for closers started to dry up.
Round - 8 - No pick, traded away
Round - 9 - Jonathon Broxton - See 1/4 of an inch above. Both of these are my fault. This error was magnifed by the lens that is closers, injuries, and Broxton throwing his fastball about as "fast" as Moyer.
Round - 10 - Carlos Pena. I actually don't feel bad about this pick. Sure, his OPB is mediocre and he loves to GIDP, but...you know, he hits jacks. And in bunches. So as a CI, he's servicable.
Round - 11 - Rajai Davis. I think I broke my arm reaching for him. Again, I fail to follow SAGNOF and it kills me.
Round - 12 - Yunel Escobar. I love this man. He is great. Sure, people in the MLB think he's an asshole, but who cares? He's still an average defender at SS and his bat plays fantastic there. I'm happy with him.
Round - 13 - Matt Garza. Ok, I have a half-finished blog post about him. His K/9 is great. His FIP and xFIP are also fantastic. His HR/9 rate was in the stratosphere, which is ironic, because it was up there in orbit with some of the dingers he gave up! He has since stablized and been everything you can expect from a 13th round draft pick...medocrity!!
Round - 14 - Jorge Posada. Move along, nothing to see here. Just a dead body under a sheet, er, wearing a baseball uniform. I got angry and dropped him. I gave him 112 ABs and he rewarded my optimism with a .287 OBP. He knocked the cover off the ball in June, though. Of course he did. I'm currently trotting out Salty and Molina...I'm gonna go drink some lighter fluid, cigars, anyone?
Round - 15 - Omar Infante. What can I say, I believed his year last year. And I got burned. This is why I hate the NL. This is eligble in 9 different slots, and sucks at all of them. He lured me in with his damn eligibility. Bastard.
Round - 16 - Nick Swisher, keeper. I love Swish. That is all.
Round - 17 - Rafael Soriano. Yup...I'm just not going to acknowledge this at all. But really, he crushed the AL East as a Ray, then the world turned upside down and he went back to being bad. I hate the Yankees. Except Swisher.
Round - 18 - Daric Barton. Had almost a .400 OBP last year. Currently in AAA. #hurtfeelings
Round - 19 - Ryan Doumit. Hey, he had Catcher eligibility. And zero baseball ability!
Round - 20 - Jhonny Peralta. Drafted him, then swiftly traded him away. Kinda regretting that one...
Round - 21 - Evan Meek. We play a Holds league...stop judging me.
Round - 22 - Sean Marshall. I legitly love this man. He and Castro are my only man-crushes on the Cubs. This guy is fucking great.
Round - 23 - Nate McClouth. I got this far, and realized that I only had Rajai as CF eligible, and he is made of something more delicate than glass. CF insurance.
Round - 24 - Josh Willingham. Drafted em, dropped em. Picked em up off of FA, dropped em. Rinse, repeat.
Round - 25 - Brian Fuentes. The bane of my existence. Evil in LOOGY form. If I could send a Terminator machine back in time, I would to stop Billy Beane from signing this guy. Then I would use my Terminator to make Tony Reagins re-sign Fuentes. Actually, that guy traded for Vernon Wells...he might of signed Fuentes again on his own!
Round - 26 - Marco Scutaro. That offense, that ballpark, SS eligible. For a 26th rounder? Sure, I'll take a LAF**
Round - 27 - Ocatvio Dotel. Well, since Fuentes is the embodiment of crap from the left side, I figured why not get his counter-part from the right side? All things being equal, they have the worst platoon splits of all time! Yay!
Round - 28 - Clay Hensley. Noting a theme there with my late round relievers?
Round - 29 - Edison Volquez. I kept him at thist cost, because even if he was terrible, it didn't cost anything. I was wrong. It cost me multiple starts of putrid rates, sprinkled with a few K's here and there.
*SAGNOF: Steals/Saves Ain't Got No Face, coined by the wonderful fellows at razzball
*LAF = LAte round Flyer. I'm trying it out. Feedback?
I give myself a C+ on the draft. I got a few things right, a few things wrong, and overall left with a team that could not win this year. Thus recognizing this, April 2011 me decided what July 2011 me is currently regretting. I blew all of my valuable draft picks trying to get players to plug in. Thats coming next. Right now, actually.
Friday, July 8, 2011
Your Very Own(able) AL 2nd half Prospects
Mike Trout: Got the call today. Its about time. Oh, to the Majors, not to AAA? Hmm...about that. Anytime a 19 year old gets the call up to the majors, I've skeptical. Put thoughts of Heyward aside, it is exceedingly rare to see such a young player get called up and perform like that. By all accounts he plays a breathtaking CF, and he was toying with AA pitchers to the tune of .324/.415/.534. His BB/K numbers looks strong he's even flashed a little power. MLE translates that to .256/.326/.399 with 6 HR and 22 SB. I'd expect about that, but with a touch more average and OBP. ETA: now!
Desmond Jennings: Currently in AAA. Stickin with the CF theme, lets take a look at one of the most frequently asked prospects. Currently stickin with a .275/.370/.457 line, he's showing some patience and some power. Then again, he's 24, and in his 3rd year of AAA. The Rays are notorious for waiting until their prospects are 100% ready and 100% guaranteed to avoid Super 2 Status. MLE says thats a .232/.313/.374 line in the majors. I don't buy that. I'd expect for Jennings to get up and put more of a .260/.345/.400 line with 20 steals for the rest of the season. He has nothing left to prove. ETA: next week?
Brett Lawrie: .354/.415/.677 that line is PCL inflated, then further inflated from his launching pad of a home park. I'm not totally convinced that he'll stay at 2B for his career and Toronto seems to agree that 3B is more likely, but when he gets the call, I would expect this right hander with power to fit right in at the Rogers Center. Strike outs are a bit of a red flag for me, but his power is pretty legit, I would guess 25 over the course of a full season given that home park, and 20 steals wouldn't be unheard of for him. Snap him up. ETA: With Bautista now playing 3B, I would assume they would call up Lawrie soon and move Joey Bats back to RF. Call it August 1st.
Matt Moore: I drool when I think of him. I already own him in one of my keeper leagues, and fully intend to hang on to this boy for the rest of his natural life. He's crushing the feeble AA hitters presented to him right now and sports a .90 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 and miniscule 2.4 BB/9. He's faced 374 batter and fanned 125 of the poor guys. He works with a low to mid 90's heater, a plus-plus curveball and a slightly above average change-up. My only worry is his "unconventional" mechanics, but the jury is still out on what works and what doesn't for pitchers. He has a no hitter this year. He saved my sisters cat from a fire. He can make pancakes appear out of thin air. I am in luhhhh. And not just because my last love was also named Moore...as in Mandy. But I digress. I'd expect him to get a cup of coffee in September, but nothing before that. If you're in a keeper league, pounce on this boy the way 15 year old me wanted to pounce on Mandy Moore.
Stay tuned for your NL prospects tomorrow
NL All Bat, No Glove All Stars
This is a follow up piece to my last article, regarding the amazing ability for major leagues to be prolific hitters and dismal fielders. And they say baseball is a 5 tool game. Ha.
1B - Prince Fielder
wRC: 74.1, most created
UZR/150: -2.8, 5th most lost
Now here's an ironic last name, amiright? Come on, it had to be said. Fielder has been the most productive 1B in the senior circuit (slightly edging out Joey Votto, 71.5 wRC). Given that that Albert Pujols has been more Albert Punchless this year, can't say I'm too shocked to see Fielder atop the list.
2B - Neil Walker
wRC: 38.1 6th most runs created
UZR/150: -7.0, 2nd most runs lost
Ok, so he's been 4% less than league average from an offensive standpoint, there really wasn't a good candidate here in the NL. It was either good at both eg Rickie Weeks, or pathetic at both, and I'm looking at you now, Dan Uggla.
SS - Starlin Castro
wRC: 49.4, 3rd most created
UZR/150: -7.9, 5th most lost
Another surprise to me. My eye test says Castro plays a decent field, but the numbers disagree. And knowing me, I go with my head over my eyes every time. Unless I have beer goggles on.
3B - Chase Headley
wRC: 47.1, 2nd most runs created
UZR/150: -8.2, 3rd most lost
Hmm. Didn't see this one coming. Partly because I never imagined Headley putting up a wOBA of .350 in that park, but mostly because I never would have ever imagined mentioning Chase Headley here. Ahh, the wonders of small sample size!
RF - Lance Berkman
wRC: 59.4, 3rd most runs created
UZR/150: -22.9, most lost
So he's not even played 400 innings there, I had to put him in this list. I mean, we all know he's had an incredible offensive year, but I think the amazing thing is his defense. I mean, 22.9 runs lost...thats just impressive. Thank the fantasy gods that defense doesn't matter in fantasy. Honorable mention to Aubrey Huff attempts at defense that compiled an amazing -119.0 UZR/150 in only 88 innings of play.
CF - Matt Kemp
wRC: 76.7, most by 13 runs
UZR/150: -14.9, most runs lost by 5
Honestly, I didn't even really need too look this up. I only did to get a firm definition of his numbers. Both his offensive and defensive numbers shouldn't surprise anyone by now. If only I owned him on any of my 3 teams #swoon. Anywho, I should stop saying anywho and get back to work.
LF - Ryan Braun
wRC: 68.3, most runs created by 14
UZR/150: -6.4
Yep, he is what he is. And that saying is probably the world's worst saying of all time, other than "thrown under the bus." Braun is a fantasy monster. It's no shocker to see him a top the offensive list, and near the bottom of the defensive spectrum.
C - Brian McCann
wRC: 52.6, most runs created by 13
DRS: -4, tied with Yadier Molina for most runs lost*
This is absurd. Yadier Molina is an animal of a defensive catcher. I hate defensive metrics sometimes. Either way, defensive metrics hate both McCann and Yadi. Go figure.
Obviously we are dealing with a preposterously small sample size yet. Most offensive numbers have normalized to some degree, but UZR really needs a 3 year sample to be truly accurate. This was done purely out of fun, and to make fun of some truly abysmal fielders.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
All Bat, No Glove
As I laid in bed last night, unable to sleep, I decided to once again peruse the single season FanGraphs Leaders board. Not for any particular reason, but once there I found how good and bad Matt Kemp is. His offense has been crazy good, as I'm sure you're well aware, but good lord, his defense has been "cover your eyes bad."
Since the All Star Game is approaching, I decided to make the most prolific offensive and most inept defense possible. All data is from qualified players from this year, so give me a little leeway in the interpretations of numbers. I'll be using wRC for offense, and UZR/150 for defense. This will give you a rough idea of how many runs each player has created and cost his team. Catchers I'll only be using DRS, because quantifying defense is hard enough for position players, let alone catchers.
Here is the AL "All Bat, No Glove" starting 8:
1B - Miguel Cabrera
wRC: 71.2, 2nd most created, behind only Adrian Gonzalez
UZR/150: -12.1, the worst by more than 10 runs. Thats a win. His WAR just lost 1.0 due to defense...in half a season. Unreal.
No surprise here. A fackin gorgeous wRC already, his defense is rated so poorly I almost feel bad for making fun of it. Almost. I mean wow. That's almost the penalty of DHing right there in WAR.
2B - Robinson Cano
wRC: 54.8,3rd most created
UZR/150: -5.3, the worst by 5+ runs
I know Orlando Cabrera rates lower defensively, but this isn't a list of no bat, no glove. Can't say I'm too shocked to see the "Gold Glover" here. I hate that award. But that's a post for another day.
SS - Asdrubal Cabrera
wRC: 57.4, the most runs created by a comfortable 6
UZR/150: -4.1, second most runs lost
This comes a pretty big surprise. Everyone knows what a hellova year Asdrubal is having at the dish, but I never viewed him as that bad of a defensive shortstop. I looked up his career numbers and sure enough, he's been bad his whole career there. Don't worry, BBTN still gives him web gems. And yes, any other year, Jeter would be the run away at this spot. Normally he's at least good at one part of baseball, but not this year!
3B - Mark Reynolds
wRC: 51.4, 2nd most created
UZR/150: -32.7, hands down the most lost, by a mind blowing 20.6 runs!
The words you're looking for are spilled on the floor from when your jaw dropped. At least that's what happened to me. That is so unimaginably bad that words elude me. I have to move on. otherwise my head might explode.
RF - Brennan Boesch*
wRC: 51.7, 3rd most created
UZR/150: -6.7, second most lost
*So I'm kind of cheating here. Boesch has spent the majority of his time in RF, but almost as much in LF. I was just shocked to see his name as the 3rd most wRC in the AL, behind the monster Joey Bats and 3 True Out Quentins.
CF - Adam Jones
wRC: 46.5, 4th most created
UZR/150: -18.8, most lost
He gets lost in the AL East sometimes, but this guy can really stick. And since he plays in the AL East, non Yankee or Sawx division, we're done talking about him. At least he got more words here than ESPN has given the O's all season! At least that's what a little blue bird told me...poor Torono. Also, between this guy "fielding" Center, and that disaster at 3B, I can't believe the O's pitchers haven't gone on strike yet. And now the O's might hire me for all this ink I'm giving them!
LF - Josh Willingham*
wRC: 29.3, 8th most
UZR/150: -16.3, 2nd most lost.
*Manipulated the numbers a bit here too. He doesn't quite qualify, but I've seen enough of him attempting to play LF that I'm sticking him here. And yes, that isn't a typo. He hasn't even created 30 runs yet. I swear I hate being an A's fan sometimes.
C - Kurt Suzuki*
wRC: 25.0, 6th most
DRS: -3, 2nd most in the AL
*Fucking catchers, they only play 4 times a week, if that. They're all split timing and platooning. I had to put someone here, just like my A's had to put someone in the All Star game. *sigh*
This AL team would put up 12 runs a game, and give up 10. I think this should be the the starting 8 for the ASG. The best thing about a format like this would be that neither pitcher would be happy about! And isn't that what the ASG is all about? Making sure no one is happy, just all equally angry?
The NL lineup will be posted tomorrow! I think I'm going to optimize the lineups, then figure out which team would score and give up more runs. And yes, this is entertaining to me.
Sunday, July 3, 2011
Some ASG thoughts
10 Years ago I loved the ASG. The idea of the best players in MLB's seperate leagues on exhibition against each other? Who wouldn't love that?
5 Years ago I was enthusiastic about the ASG. No, I was more enthusiastic about my recent discovery of a little website known as Fire Joe Morgan. Their take on the voting, the game mattering, who deserves what and so forth captivated me like the young wide-eyed child of yesteryear. The budding movement of baseball nerds such as myself was in full swing. We laughed at RBI's, and scoffed at Saves. OBP was the stat of choice for us.
Last year, I had a strong disdain for the All Star Game. I finally realized that its awful. The idea itself is fantastic, but the execution is just...deplorable. It had nowhere to go but up for me, and I thought that maybe, just maybe, it could be saved.
Today. I'm fuming. This is absurd. I'm doing what most sabermetrically inclined people tend to do when we feel slighted...we take to the blogosphere!! The following is a list of things that I would do to fix the ASG. I truly love baseball, and I think if this brief break from the regular season is the "All-Star" Game, then the people in it should be the best at their position. Hopefully by the end of this, I won't have broken an arm reaching for truth, or sprained my ankle getting off my high horse.
Change #1 - The Fan Voting
The voting is a popularity contest. It's a contest where the only merit is name recognition value. The reason for this is simple: Fans are ignorant. Actually I'm sorry, most fans are ignorant. Let me clarify further: Fans are not dumb, but ignorant of the facts and the numbers. For example, many baseball fans consider RBI's, vitally important. RBI's and batting average are what the vast majority of fans will cite when making the case for their All-Star ballots. Unfortunately, I have what Doctors call "The Burden of Knowledge" and I can't share those crude talent assessments. Think about it. Batting average has been the mainstream calculator of a baseball hitter's talent since...well, since Henry Chadwick. Again, I do not blame the fans themselves for their votes, I blame us. The sabermatricians. The guys with glasses and calculators who seemingly everyone says "live in our mother's basements." We can do a better job of helping the uninformed with answers instead of snark, with the correct stats over the old and obsolete. We can do better, and we owe the fans and more importantly the game itself to share our knowledge. Let us not change the voting system, but let us change the basis of the votes. If we can open the eyes of the casual fan to the beautiful truth of the numbers, then the All Star Game will win me back.
Change #2 - Every team gets a representative
How absurd. This isn't Pony League baseball where feelings will get hurt. This grown men being paid (very well) to play a game. They are, by definition, professionals. Lets treat them as such. If a team doesn't have any deserving players, then so be it. I hope that embarrassing the entire organization. Few things motivate as well as the fear of public humiliation. If a team gets snubbed from the ASG, I guarantee changes will happen. The fans would clammor, the owner rattle the President, the President yells at the GM, the GM to the manager, and the manager to his coaching staff and the players. That is of course assuming none of the coaches gets fired. Let's finally drop the notion that there should be fairness in the ASG. We shouldn't reward overall mediocrity when stuck on a pathetic team. If I do my job, but the rest of the office is in pathetic shambles, am I automatically considered CEO material? Come on.
Change #3 - Rosters
35 roster spots? Ummm, this is easy to fix. The ASG rosters should be like this:
C - 2
1B - 2
2B - 2
SS - 2
3B - 2
OF - 5
UTIL - 4
SP - 4
RP - 3
P - 3
Bam. 29 Roster slots. Just trimmed the fat. If it looks similar to a fantasy roster, well, it should. Because thats what it. Simple. If a MLB manager can't win a game with 29 of the supposedly best players in his league, then what is he doing managing his own team of 25?? 29 is a lot. I would personally like to see it cut down even more, but I felt that soon we would be approaching the point of diminishing returns of a smaller roster. DL players are still eligible. I split them up as follows:
12 fan voting
10 player voting
5 manager voting
2 final voting -comprised of players who received votes from the 3 earlier voting, but did not make the cut.
Change #4 - In game rules
-A roving lineup card. That is to say that any player, not just one, can start, play 2 innings, sit, then go back in if need be.
-No tie games.
-2 IP limit for pitchers, 4 consecutive innings or 3 consecutive plate appearances for a hitter.
Change #5 - It "matters"
The ridiculous fact that this sole game decides home field advantage for the World Series is almost beyond words. I hate this. The World Series is played months away, and it actually matters. The AL fans never flaunted the recent winning streak. The Giants have flaunted their rings. The World Series matters. The ASG, in truth, does not and should not. Let team with the best regular season record be awarded home field advantage.
Please Bud Selig, do the right thing and adjust, amend, whatever you want to call it, but just fix the All Star Game.
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Daric Barton falls off a Cliff Pennington
I've already slightly touched on my sentiment of Daric Barton my last post, but truth be told I really do love the guy. I mean come on...who else do you know that owns a Daric Barton shirt?* Anyways, cute title puns aside, my beloved Oakland A's cannot win with a first basemen who hits like a shortstop. Actually, Pennington has a higher wOBA at .293 than Barton's putrid .275. Kansas City's all glove-no bat short stop, Alcides Escobar, currently sports a wOBA of .274. Hows that for some peer persepctive? Due to this offensive futility as well as Barton's usually above average defense also taking a dive, the A's have been forced to option Barton down to AAA. Given the small sample size of this year, the question isn't it IF it was the right thing to to do, but exactly how justified was the move? Now that's to say that it's acceptable to have wRC+ of 75 at first base, but lets take a bit of a deeper look at his numbers
*I also have an Eric Chavez, Kurt Suzuki, and I've ordered a Craig Breslow one. Random players, I know. But hey, my fandom knows no bounds.
Coming from the trade with St. Louis that sent Mark Mulder out of town, Barton has never projected as a power hitting first basemen. His ceiling was always that of a 40 doubles, .400 OPB kind of guy. And if only prospects would reach their ceiling, what a wonderful land this would be. Anywho, when a player offensive numbers hit the fan like so, my first instinct is to check for any glaring abnormalities in his BABIP, LD%, BB%, K%, and finally O-swing% to see if he is pressing too much and therefore chasing pitches.
Now, I haven't yet decided to do a heat map of his pitch recognition or anything to like, and now I don't really see the need to. To be honest, I think we can safely say that our friend Daric Barton has simply been a victim of bad luck. Would it be great if he learned how to ISO .250 over night? Of course. But we know that won't happen. BABIP takes a long time to normalize, sometimes even a full baseball season isn't a long enough time. The A's made the right choice in the demoting Barton, however I would expect him to be back up sooner rather than later. His approach appears to be fine and unchanged. Simply put, the BABIP gods decided to toy with his emotions thus far this year. He'll be back.
*I also have an Eric Chavez, Kurt Suzuki, and I've ordered a Craig Breslow one. Random players, I know. But hey, my fandom knows no bounds.
Coming from the trade with St. Louis that sent Mark Mulder out of town, Barton has never projected as a power hitting first basemen. His ceiling was always that of a 40 doubles, .400 OPB kind of guy. And if only prospects would reach their ceiling, what a wonderful land this would be. Anywho, when a player offensive numbers hit the fan like so, my first instinct is to check for any glaring abnormalities in his BABIP, LD%, BB%, K%, and finally O-swing% to see if he is pressing too much and therefore chasing pitches.
| Career | 2011 | |
|---|---|---|
| BABIP | 0.294 | 0.260 |
| LD% | 20.5 | 19.4 |
| BB% | 14.2 | 13.9 |
| K% | 19.3 | 19.9 |
| O-Sw% | 16.2 | 17.6 |
Now, I haven't yet decided to do a heat map of his pitch recognition or anything to like, and now I don't really see the need to. To be honest, I think we can safely say that our friend Daric Barton has simply been a victim of bad luck. Would it be great if he learned how to ISO .250 over night? Of course. But we know that won't happen. BABIP takes a long time to normalize, sometimes even a full baseball season isn't a long enough time. The A's made the right choice in the demoting Barton, however I would expect him to be back up sooner rather than later. His approach appears to be fine and unchanged. Simply put, the BABIP gods decided to toy with his emotions thus far this year. He'll be back.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
WAR, and why to be WARY of it...get it?
See what I did up there? WAR, Wins Above Replacement, and wary, you know, cautious, careful...hey shut up. If you want your 0.00 back for reading this, then be my guest.
Now, if you're reading this, you should know that I am probably the biggest fan of FanGraphs for at least a 200 mile radius. I love everything they do. I love their writers, especially Dave Cameron, Jonah Keri and possibly my favorite, Carson Cistulli.
Anyways, FanGraphs has a beautiful Library that will serve you far more than my words here can describe WAR. Long story short, WAR tries to quantify the value of a player, any player, regardless of league, team or position compared to the AAA or bench player. Hence, the exact wording Wins Above Replacement (player). I won't get into the fWAR vs rWAR debate and differences here, as again, it can be found in much more clearly yet much less words at the FanGraphs site. Just go to it already. I'm going to keep plugging it until you do.
Anyways, the point of this post was inspired by this article. What I'm most intrigued by here is how the author cites WAR, notes UZR and then Total Zone metrics. He then goes on to explain the lack possibility of each system recording different findings, and then how MLB teams have their own systems, which could even further dilute, or clear, the muddled waters of defensive metrics.
I have no issue with Bill Barnwell, in fact I loved his article and look forward to many more, I just have an issue with WAR and UZR being noted in a publication and not noting the sheer volatility that can accompany each statistic.
Daric Barton was a 5.1 WAR player last year. To put that into some sort of perspective, Chase Utley was at 5.4 WAR, Jay Bruce at 5.3, Brandon Phillips at 4.3, David Wright at 4.0 WAR
Anything wrong with that picture? Lets move on for now.
In 2009 Franklin Gutierrez was an alien.
He had to be. He put up a 6.3 WAR. Six wins! SIX! That's the difference between playoffs and couch-sitting come October for a lot of teams. A 6 WAR season is impressive to say the least. How did he do that? He must have mashed, at least as far as one can mash in the SafeCo. Except he didn't really hit that well. Sure, a CF with a wRC+ of 105 in a full season is nothing to scoff at, but that cannot explain his value jump. And it doesn't. Gutierrez's massive jump in value, came from a huge up-shoot in his UZR, which reflected upon his WAR. In 2009, he was estimated to save 28.9 runs above replacement before you calculate what he did at the plate. The word you're looking for here isn't astronomical. That word wouldn't do his numbers justice that year. The word you want to use is assassin, because whenever Gutierrez was in CF, fly balls were sent there to die. In seasons accumulating over 400 PA Gutierrez's WAR is 2.3, 6.3, 1.9. Which one of these is not like the other?
Now that we've seen how a single season of UZR data can be absolutely distort that season's WAR, lets go back and look at 2010 Barton a little differently. He had a .3589 wOBA, wRC+ of 127. Well above league average on both accounts. Unfortunately, his WAR was also falsely inflated by saving 12 runs above average on defense. Unless Keith Hernandez died and was reincarnated as another first basemen, this time with even less power, then I think we've found our 5 WAR season outlier.
I'm not ripping on Barnwell, FanGraphs, numbers or anything like that. I just hate when a writer fails to convey the thought that even though it's a long baseball season, one year of UZR data, and by extension one year of WAR, is taken as gospel. I believe in the numbers, I really do. I'm just a little wary of them.
Now, if you're reading this, you should know that I am probably the biggest fan of FanGraphs for at least a 200 mile radius. I love everything they do. I love their writers, especially Dave Cameron, Jonah Keri and possibly my favorite, Carson Cistulli.
Anyways, FanGraphs has a beautiful Library that will serve you far more than my words here can describe WAR. Long story short, WAR tries to quantify the value of a player, any player, regardless of league, team or position compared to the AAA or bench player. Hence, the exact wording Wins Above Replacement (player). I won't get into the fWAR vs rWAR debate and differences here, as again, it can be found in much more clearly yet much less words at the FanGraphs site. Just go to it already. I'm going to keep plugging it until you do.
Anyways, the point of this post was inspired by this article. What I'm most intrigued by here is how the author cites WAR, notes UZR and then Total Zone metrics. He then goes on to explain the lack possibility of each system recording different findings, and then how MLB teams have their own systems, which could even further dilute, or clear, the muddled waters of defensive metrics.
I have no issue with Bill Barnwell, in fact I loved his article and look forward to many more, I just have an issue with WAR and UZR being noted in a publication and not noting the sheer volatility that can accompany each statistic.
Daric Barton was a 5.1 WAR player last year. To put that into some sort of perspective, Chase Utley was at 5.4 WAR, Jay Bruce at 5.3, Brandon Phillips at 4.3, David Wright at 4.0 WAR
Anything wrong with that picture? Lets move on for now.
In 2009 Franklin Gutierrez was an alien.
He had to be. He put up a 6.3 WAR. Six wins! SIX! That's the difference between playoffs and couch-sitting come October for a lot of teams. A 6 WAR season is impressive to say the least. How did he do that? He must have mashed, at least as far as one can mash in the SafeCo. Except he didn't really hit that well. Sure, a CF with a wRC+ of 105 in a full season is nothing to scoff at, but that cannot explain his value jump. And it doesn't. Gutierrez's massive jump in value, came from a huge up-shoot in his UZR, which reflected upon his WAR. In 2009, he was estimated to save 28.9 runs above replacement before you calculate what he did at the plate. The word you're looking for here isn't astronomical. That word wouldn't do his numbers justice that year. The word you want to use is assassin, because whenever Gutierrez was in CF, fly balls were sent there to die. In seasons accumulating over 400 PA Gutierrez's WAR is 2.3, 6.3, 1.9. Which one of these is not like the other?
Now that we've seen how a single season of UZR data can be absolutely distort that season's WAR, lets go back and look at 2010 Barton a little differently. He had a .3589 wOBA, wRC+ of 127. Well above league average on both accounts. Unfortunately, his WAR was also falsely inflated by saving 12 runs above average on defense. Unless Keith Hernandez died and was reincarnated as another first basemen, this time with even less power, then I think we've found our 5 WAR season outlier.
I'm not ripping on Barnwell, FanGraphs, numbers or anything like that. I just hate when a writer fails to convey the thought that even though it's a long baseball season, one year of UZR data, and by extension one year of WAR, is taken as gospel. I believe in the numbers, I really do. I'm just a little wary of them.
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