Saturday, July 23, 2011

Wavin the white flag

Well, it is now July 23 and I'm finally waving the white flag on my fantasy baseball season.

Hey, at least this happened long after my A's threw in the towel for the real baseball season! And yes, that is more like a gray hair than a silver lining...sure, kick me when I'm down. As any decent sabermatrician will tell you, its more about understanding the process than the bottom line results. Of course, that's also been my line since 2006*, the last time we** were in the playoffs.

*Dear god, has it really been that long? Sheesh. My last hook-up graduated high school in 2010. Hey, its not a crime. Leave me alone. She was 18!

**Yeah, I say "we" when refering to the A's. Deal with it. Actually, you should just be used to it by now. I also say we when talking about Wake Forest, USA soccer, South Korea Soccer and occasionally Man U. So there.

Anyways, I'm here to look at what went wrong in my approach, from an objective and pragmatic view. I want to see what went sideways, why, and how to prevent it the year after next...Yeah I totally burned next year trying to win this year. If this were twitter, then I would be hashtagging this #fail #utterfail #epicfail. You'd get the idea that I was dissapointed or something...

Round - 1 - No pick, due to keeper compensation value
Round - 2 - Adrian Gozalez. Zero complaints
Round - 3 -No pick, compensation
Round - 4 - Ryan Zimmerman. Freak injury. Shit happens.
Round - 5- Jered Weaver. He's been a bit lucky, given his BABIP and HR/9, but I guess the K jump last year wasn't quite for real. Maybe he turns it around for me. I was a beleiver. and paid 3rd round value for 5th round quality. I blame myself.
Round - 6 - Nick Markakis. A reach for a mediocre COFer. Again, my fault. Whats the military say about planning? Every operation is great on paper, then the shooting starts? Well, thats how I feel about fantasy baseball drafts. You're damn right I went there.
Round - 7 - Jonathan Papelbon. I broke my rule. I follow SAGNOF's*. At least I try to after my one premier closer to get me 40. I panicked when the market for closers started to dry up.
Round - 8 - No pick, traded away
Round - 9 - Jonathon Broxton - See 1/4 of an inch above. Both of these are my fault. This error was magnifed by the lens that is closers, injuries, and Broxton throwing his fastball about as "fast" as Moyer.
Round - 10 - Carlos Pena. I actually don't feel bad about this pick. Sure, his OPB is mediocre and he loves to GIDP, but...you know, he hits jacks. And in bunches. So as a CI, he's servicable.
Round - 11 - Rajai Davis. I think I broke my arm reaching for him. Again, I fail to follow SAGNOF and it kills me.
Round - 12 - Yunel Escobar. I love this man. He is great. Sure, people in the MLB think he's an asshole, but who cares? He's still an average defender at SS and his bat plays fantastic there. I'm happy with him.
Round - 13 - Matt Garza. Ok, I have a half-finished blog post about him. His K/9 is great. His FIP and xFIP are also fantastic. His HR/9 rate was in the stratosphere, which is ironic, because it was up there in orbit with some of the dingers he gave up! He has since stablized and been everything you can expect from a 13th round draft pick...medocrity!!
Round - 14 - Jorge Posada. Move along, nothing to see here. Just a dead body under a sheet, er, wearing a baseball uniform. I got angry and dropped him. I gave him 112 ABs and he rewarded my optimism with a .287 OBP. He knocked the cover off the ball in June, though. Of course he did. I'm currently trotting out Salty and Molina...I'm gonna go drink some lighter fluid, cigars, anyone?
Round - 15 - Omar Infante. What can I say, I believed his year last year. And I got burned. This is why I hate the NL. This is eligble in 9 different slots, and sucks at all of them. He lured me in with his damn eligibility. Bastard.
Round - 16 - Nick Swisher, keeper. I love Swish. That is all.
Round - 17 - Rafael Soriano. Yup...I'm just not going to acknowledge this at all. But really, he crushed the AL East as a Ray, then the world turned upside down and he went back to being bad. I hate the Yankees. Except Swisher.
Round - 18 - Daric Barton. Had almost a .400 OBP last year. Currently in AAA. #hurtfeelings
Round - 19 - Ryan Doumit. Hey, he had Catcher eligibility. And zero baseball ability!
Round - 20 - Jhonny Peralta. Drafted him, then swiftly traded him away. Kinda regretting that one...
Round - 21 - Evan Meek. We play a Holds league...stop judging me.
Round - 22 - Sean Marshall. I legitly love this man. He and Castro are my only man-crushes on the Cubs. This guy is fucking great.
Round - 23 - Nate McClouth. I got this far, and realized that I only had Rajai as CF eligible, and he is made of something more delicate than glass. CF insurance.
Round - 24 - Josh Willingham. Drafted em, dropped em. Picked em up off of FA, dropped em. Rinse, repeat.
Round - 25 - Brian Fuentes. The bane of my existence. Evil in LOOGY form. If I could send a Terminator machine back in time, I would to stop Billy Beane from signing this guy. Then I would use my Terminator to make Tony Reagins re-sign Fuentes. Actually, that guy traded for Vernon Wells...he might of signed Fuentes again on his own!
Round - 26 - Marco Scutaro. That offense, that ballpark, SS eligible. For a 26th rounder? Sure, I'll take a LAF**
Round - 27 - Ocatvio Dotel. Well, since Fuentes is the embodiment of crap from the left side, I figured why not get his counter-part from the right side? All things being equal, they have the worst platoon splits of all time! Yay!
Round - 28 - Clay Hensley. Noting a theme there with my late round relievers?
Round - 29 - Edison Volquez. I kept him at thist cost, because even if he was terrible, it didn't cost anything. I was wrong. It cost me multiple starts of putrid rates, sprinkled with a few K's here and there.

*SAGNOF: Steals/Saves Ain't Got No Face, coined by the wonderful fellows at razzball
*LAF = LAte round Flyer. I'm trying it out. Feedback?

I give myself a C+ on the draft. I got a few things right, a few things wrong, and overall left with a team that could not win this year. Thus recognizing this, April 2011 me decided what July 2011 me is currently regretting. I blew all of my valuable draft picks trying to get players to plug in. Thats coming next. Right now, actually.

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