Max Scherzer's missing K's

27.9, 23.5, 23.0, 20.0. Those numbers are Max Scherzer's falling K% by year, from 2008 to the present. I'm willing to concede that a bit of the change is from the NL to AL transition, but the different between this year and last is the biggest thing to me.

After pitching quite well in only 56 innings in 2008 to the tune of 3.05/3.33/3.16 ERA/FIP/xFIP line and struck out a magnificent 10.6 K/9, Schezer broke camp with the D-backs in 2009 and started 30 games for them. He pitched decently well, and his 4.12/3.87/3.82 line accurately portrays his season, still with a great 9.19 K/9

After the trade to the Tigers, Scherzer had an up and down year in 2010, even being demoted to AAA at one point. His final season line looks quite well 3.50/3.71/3.68. He dipped to a 8.46 K/9 however.

This year paints a slight different picture. Schezer has fanned a mere 7.75 K/9. His corresponding stats have once again inflated, and he currently sits at 4.28/4.10/3.82. Certainly useful, but still alarms must be raised. Having just turned 27, the Tigers would hope to see him take strides forward, not regress backwards.

To me, the issue is that his falling K rate is directly proportional to his rising ERA/FIP/xFIP. I'm going to see if I can find out exactly what is happening. I'll be looking at 2010 and 2011 data exclusively here, as I believe the difference from 09 to 10 to be neglibible. To the data!

In 2010, Pitch f/x claims Max Scherzer was a 3 pitch man, Four-seamer, Slider, Changeup. This matches his scouting report. We'll assume his 2 FA are mis-labeled four-seamers, and will be added to the numbers. The very top chart is what I'm interested, at least one tab of it.

Pitch Type	Pitch #	Swing%	Whiff%
Four-Seamer	2013	42.0%	6.3%
Change-Up	66	58.0%	13.8%
Slider	501	44.3%	17.6%

Still strong whiff numbers, no? Here is Scherer's 2011 pitch data.

Pitch Type	Pitch #	Swing%	Whiff%
Four-Seamer	1373	42.3%	6.4%
Change-Up	430	54.7%	12.8%
Slider	419	49.9%	17.9%

I'm just as confused as you are. Damn near identical numbers. His swing and whiff rates from this change-up to his slider negate each others change. So what we have here is the essentially the same rates 12.6% Whiff in 2010, to 12.4% this year. This cannot explain the large drop in K% and K/9.

So what gives? I had to turn to his lovely FanGraphs player page. The first thing I looked for was velocity, and across the board he is throwing slower this year than he ever has. His Four-Seamer sits at 92.8 mph, the lowest of his career. Likewise his Slider at 81.6 mph, and his changeup at 81.7 mph. Each of those speeds are below his career average, not just 2010. But even just this dip in velocity still doesn't serve to explain the why the problem remains.

Scherzer's swinging rates and strike rates are nearly identical, but the strikeouts haven't been there. Despite all my research, I'm still befuddled. I'm taking a break for now, but I'll be back by the end of the day to look at his 2-strike counts. Maybe he can get strikes early, but can't finish the batter off. Thats my early hypothesis, but let's see if it holds water.

***

Alright, I'm back with Part II of my analysis, I'm also watching Hook, so if there's a few typos, sue me.

Here is all of Scherzer's 2-strike counts from 2010

Pitch Type	Pitch #	Swing%	Whiff%
Four-Seamer	513	59.6%	8.8%
Change-Up	212	66.4%	17.9%
Slider	103	57.9%	14.1%

And his 2-strike counts from 2011 so far

Pitch Type	Pitch #	Swing%	Whiff%
Four-Seamer	304	57.5%	7.8%
Change-Up	167	62.5%	17.7%
Slider	126	64.1%	8.5%

Obviously what pops out is not only the number of sliders, but the effectiveness of them as well. This year in 2-strike counts, Scherzer is going to his slider more often, to a less beneficial result. As noted above, in 2011 his Slider is still effective, but not even 1/3 of what it was in 2010. More sliders throw, more swung at, but a smaller number of whiffs than ever before? Hmm...we might have it.

My final analysis is that Scherzer has lost an average of 1.5 MPH on each of his 3 pitches. This decline in velocity has led him to throw his four-seamer and change-up less, and thus in turn, more sliders this year. And the hitters know it. If I were the Tigers, I would have the catchers and coaches sit down with Max and ask him if he feels comfortable throwing more change-ups in 2-strike counts, as so far this year it has been his best strike out pitch. This year hitters have hammered his fastball, and are sitting on his slider. His ticket back to the upper echelon of K% pitchers is his change-up.

Tables compliments of Tableizer!