Justin Masterson's Domination

When you think of a dominating pitcher this year, your thoughts may wander to Weaver, Verlander, Sabathaia, Kershaw, Halladay, or any other "big name." I'm willing to bet that a name that you over looked is Justin Masterson. That's too bad, because he's been nothing short of elite this year. As a matter of fact, he ranks 7th in all of baseball with a 55.0% GB rate. Fantastic. The question is, are that groundballs valuable to a pitcher? Hmm, prepare to be surprised.

Before the season started, if I told you that Justin Masterson would rate higher via WAR than Tim Lincecum, what would you have said?

"Well, Lincecum must be hurt!"
or
"You have lost your mind sir."

It would be one of those, and I wouldn't have blamed you. Yet here we are, on the cusp of the end of the season, and by FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement, that is exactly where we stand. Masterson has racked up 5.2 WAR in 32 starts and Lincecum 4.5 WAR in 31. Now of course Big Time Timmy Jim could still catch him, but as of now, Masterson holds a fairly strong edge.

That ought to frame his value a little clearer. Now, moving past the current comparison of his value, let's see how so far this season Masterson has been nothing short of well, masterful.* This is Masterson's 2nd full season starting, and I'd like to compare him to another great groundball inducer. See if you can figure it out.

Pitcher's 2nd SP Season	GS	IP	K%	BB%	GB Rate	ERA	FIP
Justin Masterson*	32	211 1/3	17.5%	6.7%	55.0%	3.15	3.1>
Pitcher X	35	208	17.6%	12.8%	64.3%	3.59	4.41

*Masterson still hasn't completed his sophomore season, and thus he can continue to accrue numbers. And as far as I know, the 2004 season is in complete.

If you haven't figured it out yet, Pitcher X is Brandon Webb's 2004 season. Webb managed to burn worms at an even higher rate, had a nearly identical K rate, yet Webb's control plauged him all year. He even had 17 Wild Pitches and 11 Hit Batsmen. So far, Masterson is at 5 and 9 respectively. The only other difference is the relative run environment. As of this writing, the current average AL .719 OPS. The NL average was .756 OPS in 2004. That Masterson has a better ERA and FIP in this scoring depressed environment is not all that suprising, although again, the BB's really hurt Webb in '04. There are other similarites aside from the statistics alone however. Both pitchers have the following in common:

-Height. Masterson is 6' 6" and Webb is 6' 3"
-Strong Builds, Masterson weighs 250 and Webb 228
-Right handed pitchers
-3/4 arm slot delivery
-And of course, both are mostly Sinkerball pitchers.

I look at those simliar statistics and body type and the mind races to imagine what a good pitcher Justin Masterson can become. I completely whiffed this year on Masterson in fantasy baseball this year, and I'm kicking myself now for it. If you're in a keeper league, swing a deal in the winter for him. All signs point to Masterson dominating for years to come. He is quite literally, the next Brandon Webb. Don't be me. Don't over look the value of the groundball.

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