Newsflash: I tweet a lot.
Shocking newsflash: I tweet a lot about baseball.
Most shocking newsflash: I get into debates about baseball.
Least shocking thing of all time: I get into debates about baseball on twitter. A lot.
Aaaaannnnyyyyywho, given the statements above, the statement below shouldn't surprise you. And if it does, then who are you, and how did you find my blog?
Today I will argue both sides for AL Cy Young. I kind of debate against myself more than anything here, but it was inspired by a friend of mine on twitter. Follow him. He's pretty biased towards Detroit, but hey, I'm a big A's homer, so its fine.
He thinks that Verlander should win the Cy Young. I'm inclinded to agree, but for the sake of arguement, and to be kind of a dick, I decided to disagree. I realize that C.C. leads the AL in pitcher WAR at 6.8, and that Verlander, 6.4 WAR, has that air of a potential no hitter every 5 days, but I'm going to make a different arguement. In fact, I believe that I can make a reasoned case for Haren and Weaver to win Co-Cy Youngs with a 6.1 and 5.4 WAR respectively.
As much as we attempt to differentiate team statistics from individual ones, the main stream media (read: 90% of fans and voters) still like to muddle those waters.
Exhibit A: Pitcher wins.
We all know by now much wins don't really matter. If you're looking for more of a convincing arguement, read Joe Posnanski. He is a mechanic with words and a magician with his arguements. I aspire to write with 1/100th of his talent. Gushing for my favorite writer aside, wins are mostly irrelevant. A pitcher's sole duty is not to accrue wins. It is to efficiently record outs. As novel of an idea as that may seem, it still feels like the vast majority is unaware of that duty. Whether or not a starting pitcher gets the fabled "Win" is a massive amount of work and doing for the team, not just the individual pitcher. I think that statement stands on its own. We have officially debunked the myth of pitcher Wins.
Exhibit B: Marginal (team) wins.
The Tigers have a 9 game lead and have all but locked up a playoff spot. That the Tigers have managed this despite a corpse playing RF for the majority of the season is impressive. That they've done this with a closer who looks like Hermes Conrad is even more so. On the other hand, the Angels acquired the albatross in the field, plate, and bank that is Vernon Wells, and have a decomposing zombie also playing RF/DH. For the Angels to be only 2.5 games back is stunning. Given that the Dynamic Duo of Weaver and Haren is the best 1-2 punch in the AL, 2nd best in the league behind only Halladay and Lee, that is worth noting. Actually, more than noting. That means that Haren and Weaver have combined to be the best in their league all year. They've been pitching to make the playoffs. Each time they pitch and the team wins, they get closer and closer. Detroit doesn't need to everytime Verlander pitches. Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds Report says it all. The Angels do in fact need their superheros to be, well, superhuman in order to make the playoffs. Given that need, the team wins, and in a larger frame, each start by Haren and Weaver are much more critical. Know a synonym for critical? Valuable. Moving on.
Exhibit C: FIP.
I'm only looking at things that the pitcher can control. Well, that and IP, because I think the raw number of innings pitched gets under-rated far too often.
| Pitcher | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verlander | 229 | 8.67 | 2.21 | 0.60 | 2.95 |
| Weaver | 217 1/3 | 9.12 | 2.00 | 0.86 | 2.88 |
| Haren | 214 1/3 | 7.29 | 1.16 | 0.70 | 3.00 |
| Sabathia | 224 1/3 | 7.85 | 2.23 | 0.67 | 2.80 |
Pretty much too close to call, huh? When the largest FIP difference is about 6.7%, its worthless to cite a difference.
Exhibit D: Subjective Opinion.
I won't lie, if I were picking one pitcher in the AL to see today, it would be Justin Verlander. He is more exciting than anyone else in the league. I think that out of all of MLB, I would only pick Clayton Kershaw over him in terms of excitement. Verlander seems to posses a potential to throw a no hitter every 5 days. He has a fastball that gets faster the deeper into games he gets. Crazy. Sabathia had that in the half year he spent with Milwalkee. Pedro had that for 3 years running. Verlander seems locked in, so to say.
All of this sounds nice, but it doesn't quite match the numbers. The record, you know, what actually happened. An objective fact. If the Cy Young were based on hype, hysteria and "mound presence" then I assume Verlander has it locked up. But it isn't. Its based on the best pitcher in context that year. Is it Verlander? Maybe. For me, right now, even yes. But, with 3 weeks left to go, and the AL West still up in the air, Weaver and Haren can make a ton of noice coming down the stretch. If they pitch their team to a playoff spot, then I'm changing my non-vote for them to share the Cy Young. Even if Verlander gets to 25 wins. Pushing your team to an unlikely playoff spot is infinitely more imporant (read: valuable) than one person accomplishing 25 wins.
And that ladies and gentlemen, is the power of team wins, over the myth of pitcher wins.
You know the drill, the table via Tableizer!
Justin Verlander should not be MVP, but not because he is a pitcher. It is because he has not been the most VALUABLE player to his team's playoff chances. If the Tigers were to win the division by 1 game and verlander had 25 wins, then should Verlander get serious looks at MVP. I believe I could make a better case for Victor Martinez to win MVP than Verlander at this juncture with the tigers being 9 games up. Out of the AL, if his team holds up and makes it to the playoffs, Micheal Young should be MVP for what he has done for the Rangers this year. I dont believe a Yankee or Red Sox player should get it due in part to the overall talent that is on their team.
ReplyDeleteBut, the Cy Young, should, and needs to go to the best pitcher that year, regardless of what the pitcher did to help his team make the playoffs. Felix Hernandez won last year with a slighty above .500 record, but he had the lowest ERA, thats imperative.Thee Cy Young award is the best pitcher, Silver Slugger is for the best batter that season. Verlander is on the verge of locking up the Triple Crown this season. The last player to do that was Jake Peavy in 2007, he won the Cy Young award, and his team did not make the playoffs.
Wins do not make a a pitcher the Cy Young winner. For instance Max Scherzer has 14 wins this year, so you would think that he probably has like a ERA around 3. He in fact does not, rather a 4.27 ERA. The two statistics that matter the most when it comes to Cy Young is ERA, and WHIP. Verlander is the top guy in both of those statistics. Therefore, regardless of other pitchers' respective team's chances of making the playoffs, Verlander should be named MVP, just because he was the BEST pitcher in the AL that year.
I meant to say Cy Young instead of MVP in that last sentence.
ReplyDeleteERA and WHIP are far too volatile statistics to base an effective vote on. They're both hugely BABIP related, and thus it depends on the quality of the defense behind the pitcher, not the pitcher himself. That is why I used FIP, the best and most accurate statistic that I believe we have today.
ReplyDeleteI addressed every conceivable angle here to make my point that as of this writing, Verlander does in fact deserve the Cy Young. I am hedging my bet a little, given that I said if the Angels were to win it, I would change my imaginary vote to co Cy Youngs to Haren and Weaver, and I believe I stated those reasons accurately and in detail.
That being said, I would love to hear your arguements for V-Mart or Michael Young. I can't begin to entertain the notion that either one of them is the even amongst the top 2 most valuable on their own team, let alone the league.