I am a big ol' windmill sized fan of his. Not just because I picked up him off the scrap heap that is Free Agency in a keeper league. Not just because since acquiring him, he has given me the following:
82 2/3 IP, 92 K, 3.27 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Only 4 wins, but hey, with peripherals like that, Wins are a bonus. Luebke has produced elite numbers in 3 of the major pitching categories, including both critical rate statistics. What's not to love so far?
And there in lies the issue. "So far." I'm going to take a look at his numbers to see if I can gain anything of predictive value. This will be a bit more Pitch F/X relient, but when dealing in a sample size this small, I can only rely on statistics so far. I'll just have to use what's best and most readily available to me at the time. Kind of like how WAR isn't perfect, but the Mainstream Media still rips on it.*
*That's an entirely different post. My MVP post will be 5,000 words. Joe Posnanksi would be like "Whoa, too many words son."
First off, let's get a little context. I'm going out on a limb and saying you don't know Cory Luebke too well. What a shame. For all intents and purposes, he is a superstar. The following table goes to illustrate just what type of company Luebke is in right now. Those rate stats below tell the story quite accurately. Once again I say this: He is in elite company. Those are some of the best known strike out artists in the business. And Luebke is either on par, or even surpassing some of them to certain degrees. Justin Verlander who? My boy Luebke has a better K rate and a lower FIP. Where's his Cy Young?
| Pitcher | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB Rate | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Hanson> | 9.83 | 3.18 | 1.18 | 39.2% | .268 | 3.67 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 9.73 | 2.15 | 0.55 | 42.9% | .276 | 2.40 |
| Justin Verlander | 9.08 | 2.02 | 0.84 | 40.3% | .237 | 2.93 |
| Zack Greinke | 10.60 | 2.11 | 1.00 | 47.3% | .320 | 2.89 |
| Brandon Morrow | 10.17 | 3.35 | 1.14 | 35.2% | .307 | 3.73 |
| Tim Lincecum | 9.36 | 3.59 | 0.64 | 48.3% | .276 | 3.14 |
| Cory Luebke | 9.88 | 2.63 | 0.78 | 39.2% | .281 | 2.88 |
Of course, that is a bit misleading. Once again, I omitted a critical evaluator...Innings Pitched. All those pitchers except Luebke and Hanson (due to injuries) have pitched at least 150 innings. Luebke is at 126 2/3. He has appeared in 44 games this season, but only 15 starts thus far. His first startwas June 26 and was uninspiring in that it lasted only 5 innings. He issued 2 walks, but struck out 6 and gave up only one hit...a sign of things to come perhaps? Whats that? You say he has too low of a BABIP? I retort that statement with some proof that high strikeout guys tend to have lower BABIP. Yep. Proof. So his success isn't BABIP fueled. Hmm. What else could it be? Maybe he accrued all of his K's as a flame throwing reliever, and very few as a starter? You think? Let's take a look.
Before we do take that look, lets check out the absolutely brilliant minds over at Baseball Prospectus. They did a ton of leg work for me already on the subject of relievers turned starters/swingmen roles, etc. Read this, and you'll get a much better grasp of what I'll be doing next, which is comparing the different roles that Luebke has performed in.
| Reliever 4/2 - 6/25 | Avg FF | Avg FT | Avg SL | Avg CH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed In MPH | 91.1 | 91.6 | 82.7 | 83.2 |
| Horiz. In Inches | 4.93 | 8.6 | -1.64 | 7.11 |
| Vert. In Inches | 8.90 | 7.88 | -1.07 | -0.08 |
| Whiff Rate | 9.1% | 0.0% | 19.5% | 12.2% |
| Pitch Selection | 56.2% | 2.5% | 34.6% | 6.8% |
| Starter 6/26-9/13 | Avg FF | Avg FT | Avg SL | Avg CH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed in MPH | 91.5 | 91.3 | 82.9 | 85.1 |
| Horiz. In Inches | 4.50 | 9.26 | -1.04 | 9.26 |
| Vert. In Inches | 9.69 | 9.29 | 0.38 | 1.73 |
| Whiff Rate | 8.5% | 4.4% | 16.6% | 14.3% |
| Pitch Selection | 67.6% | 3.0% | 22.9% | 6.5% |
What we're seeing here is almost a zero change in velocity across the board, but the movement and the selection of each pitch has changed considerably. This is directly in line with what BP already established above. No huge outliers. The significance of this lack of outliers is that Luebke can now be more accurately projected. Though the list of successful bullpen-starter guys is rather short, the most notable comparison is actually in the first chart. A Mr. Brandon Morrow. Given that Luebke's numbers jive quite well with his, I can safely assume that going forward (and assuming no great-than-normal injury risk), that Cory Luebke will be an outstanding pitcher going forward. My only concern is that he never showed this many strikeouts in the higher minors, but he did refine his delivery in 2009, and he apparently attributes much of his success to that refinement. I'm not overly concerned about regression.
I picked up Luebke on a flier in a fantasy league. Now I can keep him at the cost of a 29th round pick. I think that's going to be a yes. From relative unknown to being in the same sentence, and tables, as some of the best pitcher in the game? Not too bad for a sleeper.
A constant kudos to Tableizer!
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