Playoff Rotations!

As pointed out here, the playoff race is largely decided. Sure, the Rangers could collapse, but really, at this point, we know the 8 teams. For kicks and giggles, I'll include the Angels in this article too. I'm looking at each teams (probable and honestly, the most sensical) playoff rotations. I'm only looking at this season's data and I'll be doing this exercise, assuming that there won't be a 1 game playoff, and that each team can set it's rotation.

The statistic I'll be citing is xFIP. I'll also be listing IP, because I personally believe that the number of innings a starter throws is incredible important. It's an indicator of health, which is obviously important. Now, there are literally dozens of ERA estimators and just as many RA calculators, but I'm choosing xFIP for its predictive value going forward. Now that I've cleared everything up, off to the names and corresponding numbers!

New York Yankees

Game	Name	xFIP	IP to Date
1	C.C. Sabathia	3.00	205
2	Bartolo Colon	3.53	127 1/3
3	Ivan Nova	4.01	131

I loathe them. Not because they spend money, there aren't any rules against that. It's because of the MSM love and obsession with them. There's 29 other teams guys, come on. Also, for the playoff defeats. But that's an especially bitter subject. Moving on. Intuitively, I would have assumed that Freddy Garcia has out pitched Ivan Nova, but Nova's fantastic 54.1 GB% carried him to the #3 spot. Either way, If I'm a Yankee's fan, I'm praying for a ton of rainouts so you can trot C.C. out there 4 times in a row.


Boston Red Sox

Game	Name	xFIP	IP to Date
1	Jon Lester	3.55	160
2	Josh Beckett	3.60	163
3	Erik Bedard*	3.42	117 1/3

I hate these guys more than the Yankees. I have my reasons. Not the least of which being 2003, but whatever. You could honestly flip Lester and Beckett, and I'm sure Francona will, given post season reputation and all. It's hard to go wrong there. I included all of Bedard's IP, not just with the Red Sox, thus the asterisk. Lackey isn't a realistic option in the playoffs anyways.


Detroit Tigers

Game	Name	xFIP	IP to Date
1	Justin Verlander	3.03	215 2/3
2	Max Scherzer	3.78	165 1/3
3	Dough Fister*	3.89	174 2/3

Ah yes, the local sports collective. I'm still bitter over 2006, but I'll live. Again, I've included both of Fister's teams here. This is a pretty easy call, JV is pitching like a man possessed, and Scherzer and Fister are very different pitchers, but they get very similar results. Move along folks, nothing to see here.


Texas Rangers

Game	Name	xFIP	IP to Date
	C.J. Wilson	3.47	186
2	Derek Holland	3.88	165 1/3
3	Alexi Ogando	3.89	151 1/3
4	Matt Harrison	3.90	153

I had to inlcude the top 4 pitchers here, because as you can see, they're all remarkably similar. This even leaves off Colby Lewis, who's thrown 172 Innings, but to a xFIP of 4.14, making him the odd man out. Then again, if I'm Ron Washington, I'm lining myself up for a 1-2-3 of Wilson, Holland, Harrison, in that order. the groundball rate is the difference maker here for me, and Ogando only gets a worm burnder 36.2% of the time. That won't (literally) fly in Yankee Stadium or Fenway too well.


Los Angeles Angels of Los Angeles' Largest, Richest and Whitest Suburb

Game	Name	xFIP	IP to Date
1	Dan Haren	3.26	193 2/3
2	Ervin Santana	3.71	197
3	Jered Weaver	3.73	201 1/3

So, speakiin of things I didn't see coming: that up there. I had no idea Weaver would have the 3rd best xFIP. Granted, thats a ridiculously marginal amount, but still. Obviously Scosicapath isn't crazy enough to start Santana over Weaver. In fact, I doubt he would start Haren before Weaver, but this is at least interesting. I'd still trot out Weaver, Haren, Santana, though it's closer for the top 2 than I would have guessed.


Philadelphia Phillies - Spoiler Alert! Prepare to not be surprised at all!

Game	Name	xFIP	IP to Date
1	Roy Halladay	2.57	189 2/3
2	Cliff Lee	2.73	178
3	Cole Hamels	2.9	186

Yerp. Just as expected. Honestly, this is a such a no brainer, I'm insulted at myself for taking the time to look this up.

Atlanta Braves

Game	Name	xFIP	IP to Date
1	Brandon Beachy	3.23	114 1/3
2	Tommy Hanson	3.24	130
3	Tim Hudson	3.50	177
4	Derek Lowe	3.6	157 1/3

Given the fairly recent discovery of a small tear in his throwing shoulders rotator cuff, I felt that I should also list Lowe. The downgrade from Hanson to Lowe is steeper than the number would suggest. Assuming Hanson comes back 100%, my ideal rotation would be Hanson, Hudson, Beachy. If Hanson is still hurt, I shuffle it to go Hudson, Beach, Lowe.

Milwaukee Brewers

Game	Name	xFIP	IP to Date
1	Zack Greinke	2.45	135 2/3
2	Yovani Gallardo	3.39	176 1/3
3	Shaun Marcum	3.80	162 1/3
3	Chris Narveson	3.80	137 2/3

Wow, so ok, 2 things jump out at me. First, I can't beleive Greinke has a 2.45 xFIP. That is so dirty. Good god. I mean, wow, mind fuck. But secondly, I never would have guessed that Shaun Marcum and Chris Narveson have identical xFIP's. Obviously the top 3 should be Greinke, Yo-Ga, Marcum by the numbers, and that's exactly how it should be.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Game	Name	xFIP	IP to Date
1	Ian Kennedy	3.59	187 1/3
2	Daniel Hudson	3.66	187
3	Josh Collmenter	4.20	110

Yeesh. Not a bad 1-2 punch, but man, this number 3 situation is almost as bad as the Yankee's. At least the D-Backs have a legit #2. I still don't know how exactly this team is winning the division, but whatevs, it's the NL. Oh yeah, and because the Giants are starting multiple corpses in the field. That too.

This isn't the end-all, be-all of playoff setups, but this is about as clear of a picture as we can get right now. Having 3 great starters isn't the exact recipe for post season success, but its absolutely one of the main ingredients. Going by this, I really like the Brewers to do some serious damage. And yes, they were my preseason NL World Series contender...my AL was the A's...I'm a homer, and I don't care what you think of me. Besides, I know that next year will be our year!


As always, tables compliments of Tableizer!

The upcoming CBA

I've devoted a considerable amount of time, energy, faith, hope, frustration, anger and elation towards MLB over the years. It's time for some of that to end...well, all the negative stuff I hope.

This coming off-season (in which once again, my beloved A's will start before their due) is a big one. Everyone is all locked in over the NFL and NBA lockouts, but the NFL is resolved and the NBA is a nothing but a crime syndicate.*

*Seriously. It's all a fabrication. It's almost as bad as FIFA. Almost...

A major part of my frustration is based on the fact that I do in fact root for one of the more frugal teams in the baseball. Not to say that I'm complaining, I don't want this post to turn into a pity party, but forgive me as I get this off my chest: The current MLB revenue structure is one that is unsustainable.

It's not just the major media markets, its the private TV deals (YES, NESN) and the fact that revenue sharing does not encompass those TV agreements. The Yankees and Red Sox are not breaking any rules of course, but they are breaking baseball. The major league payroll discrepencies aren't the only telling statistic either. Draft over-slotting, International scouting, and free agent acquisition are all the same point: Money drives baseball. Maybe more accurately, money drives life, but that's a different post for a different day.

The following is a list of everything that I would like to see fix/changed/eliminated from the game that so many of us love so dearly. Not of all of this has to do with the CBA, but damnit, I'm going to list the changes I want to see here anyways. Mr. Commissioner, take these words to heart.

1. Implement a mandatory salary floor, in addition to the luxury tax. If a team (I'm looking at you, Florida and Pittsburgh) fails to spend X amount, call it 45 million on the major league roster, then they don't get a piece of the revenue sharing pie. The age old axiom of "You gotta spend money to make money" needs to hold water here. When owners are making money by ripping the heart out of fanbases by keeping an inferior team on the field and intentionally allowing free agents to be leave for richer pastures, we have a problem. It's tantamount to theft. Owners can sit back, field a sub-par team and still collect gate, concessions, etc in one hand, then recieve a check from the MLB Commisioners office with the other. It's basic, force teams to spend money. That's it.

2. In addition to the current revenue sharing formula, any "private media" contract will also be eligible to be shared. While the Yankees and Red Sox seem to always spend the most or almost the most amount on MLB talent every year, they still only spend a fraction of what they actually make. Those stadiums charge more money per seat, sell more accessories, and have the most lucrative TV deals. I realize it isn't their fault for being popular and making money, but it is still team money. MLB team money. This must be addressed and corrected. Put it this way: A team makes money by selling themselves. Revenue sharing forces a bit of baseball socialism, by redistributing that money. Why is it absurd to ask the Yankees for some of that 500 million TV contract? Shouldn't the A's, Twins, Rays, Pirates and Marlins get a fair portion of that? It will never really be revenue sharing until everything is shared. Bill James touched on this very subject years ago, and to my utter amazement, its one of the things still not talked about.

3. Free Agent compenesation should be eliminated. Type A and B free agent compensation is absurd. Firstly, it uses a crappy formula for both hitters and pitchers, and the Elias Sports Bureau is a bunch of idiots. Moving on from the flaws of that formula, the compensation is openly mocked and played by MLB teams. You can call it an inefficency if you'd like, I'd prefer to just call it a deficiency. Teams with higher payroll abilites can trade for a player in the final year of a contract solely for the Type A or B status that accompanies him. They can in effect pay 1 season for 2 first round draft picks if they play it right. The richest teams then have all the draft picks too. Umm, what? So, you can get ahead by spending, and stay there by spending more. I forgot that that was the idea behind baseball.

4. Hard slotting for the draft. Example: If you get drafted first round, 9th overall, you will get a maximum package of 4.3 million. Etc. Pretty clear. You shouldn't dangle a wad of cash in front of a 18 year old kid with a full ride scholarship offer. Don't buy him off. If he wants to go to college, let him. Don't tempt him with petty cash. Set the dollar amount in descending order from first overall down. Adjust year to year for inflation. Amatuer free agents can sign to a maximum of say, 50,000. I'm just throwing numbers out there, but I'm trying to light a match in a cave here, so give me a little space.

5. Elimination of all divisions. The best 4 teams from each league make the playoffs. If that happens to be the Phillies, Braves, Mets and Marlins one year, well, so be it. The playoffs are far too important to allow an inferior team in, or leave a superior team out. It shouldn't be this difficult for the masses to think that the playoffs should only include the best teams...

6. 7 game DS. I know this adds about 4 extra days. But 5 games? Come on. Wayyyy to small of sample size. Then again, so is 7, but if the playoffs were just extensions of the regular season aka H2H Fantasy baseball, would that be fair? Actually, yes, it would. Complete teams with depth would then come into play much more. Whatever, at least give us a best of 7 in the DS. More baseball is never a bad thing. Call it an expansion of the playoffs, without adding more teams. Everybody wins! Well, except the losers.

7. The higher seed in each series gets 5 home games, not 4. If you want a true home field advantage, let's give it the team thats earned it over the course of the season. I'd actually be ok with the wild car winner having 1 or even zero home games. "Earn it in 162!" I always say!*

*I have never, ever said that. It just seemed to work. Shut up. This is free.

8. All of this.

9. Expand instant replay for the love of cake! Don't just do homeruns and fair/foul balls. Extend it to plays at the plate, safe vs out and catches vs traps. I'm actually against the balls/strikes replay. I love how some Umps have a hitters zone or a pitchers zone. Baseball is all about the human element, so each pitch call can vary. That being said, we now posses the technology to get every other call accurate. Why wouldn't we as a fanbase and baseball as an institution want that?

10. I tried hard to come up with something here for my 10th change, but really I'm coming up emtpy. Also, why did the number 10 get arbitrarily picked to be the best? Top 10s, 10 best of, etc. Why? The U.S. uses a base 12 system, even that's completely idiotic, but again, that's a whole nother can'o worms. This list turned into a list of 9 because 9 is a legit number...and because I'm hungry and have writers block, so there's that too.

Max Scherzer's missing K's

27.9, 23.5, 23.0, 20.0. Those numbers are Max Scherzer's falling K% by year, from 2008 to the present. I'm willing to concede that a bit of the change is from the NL to AL transition, but the different between this year and last is the biggest thing to me.

After pitching quite well in only 56 innings in 2008 to the tune of 3.05/3.33/3.16 ERA/FIP/xFIP line and struck out a magnificent 10.6 K/9, Schezer broke camp with the D-backs in 2009 and started 30 games for them. He pitched decently well, and his 4.12/3.87/3.82 line accurately portrays his season, still with a great 9.19 K/9

After the trade to the Tigers, Scherzer had an up and down year in 2010, even being demoted to AAA at one point. His final season line looks quite well 3.50/3.71/3.68. He dipped to a 8.46 K/9 however.

This year paints a slight different picture. Schezer has fanned a mere 7.75 K/9. His corresponding stats have once again inflated, and he currently sits at 4.28/4.10/3.82. Certainly useful, but still alarms must be raised. Having just turned 27, the Tigers would hope to see him take strides forward, not regress backwards.

To me, the issue is that his falling K rate is directly proportional to his rising ERA/FIP/xFIP. I'm going to see if I can find out exactly what is happening. I'll be looking at 2010 and 2011 data exclusively here, as I believe the difference from 09 to 10 to be neglibible. To the data!

In 2010, Pitch f/x claims Max Scherzer was a 3 pitch man, Four-seamer, Slider, Changeup. This matches his scouting report. We'll assume his 2 FA are mis-labeled four-seamers, and will be added to the numbers. The very top chart is what I'm interested, at least one tab of it.

Pitch Type	Pitch #	Swing%	Whiff%
Four-Seamer	2013	42.0%	6.3%
Change-Up	66	58.0%	13.8%
Slider	501	44.3%	17.6%

Still strong whiff numbers, no? Here is Scherer's 2011 pitch data.

Pitch Type	Pitch #	Swing%	Whiff%
Four-Seamer	1373	42.3%	6.4%
Change-Up	430	54.7%	12.8%
Slider	419	49.9%	17.9%

I'm just as confused as you are. Damn near identical numbers. His swing and whiff rates from this change-up to his slider negate each others change. So what we have here is the essentially the same rates 12.6% Whiff in 2010, to 12.4% this year. This cannot explain the large drop in K% and K/9.

So what gives? I had to turn to his lovely FanGraphs player page. The first thing I looked for was velocity, and across the board he is throwing slower this year than he ever has. His Four-Seamer sits at 92.8 mph, the lowest of his career. Likewise his Slider at 81.6 mph, and his changeup at 81.7 mph. Each of those speeds are below his career average, not just 2010. But even just this dip in velocity still doesn't serve to explain the why the problem remains.

Scherzer's swinging rates and strike rates are nearly identical, but the strikeouts haven't been there. Despite all my research, I'm still befuddled. I'm taking a break for now, but I'll be back by the end of the day to look at his 2-strike counts. Maybe he can get strikes early, but can't finish the batter off. Thats my early hypothesis, but let's see if it holds water.

***

Alright, I'm back with Part II of my analysis, I'm also watching Hook, so if there's a few typos, sue me.

Here is all of Scherzer's 2-strike counts from 2010

Pitch Type	Pitch #	Swing%	Whiff%
Four-Seamer	513	59.6%	8.8%
Change-Up	212	66.4%	17.9%
Slider	103	57.9%	14.1%

And his 2-strike counts from 2011 so far

Pitch Type	Pitch #	Swing%	Whiff%
Four-Seamer	304	57.5%	7.8%
Change-Up	167	62.5%	17.7%
Slider	126	64.1%	8.5%

Obviously what pops out is not only the number of sliders, but the effectiveness of them as well. This year in 2-strike counts, Scherzer is going to his slider more often, to a less beneficial result. As noted above, in 2011 his Slider is still effective, but not even 1/3 of what it was in 2010. More sliders throw, more swung at, but a smaller number of whiffs than ever before? Hmm...we might have it.

My final analysis is that Scherzer has lost an average of 1.5 MPH on each of his 3 pitches. This decline in velocity has led him to throw his four-seamer and change-up less, and thus in turn, more sliders this year. And the hitters know it. If I were the Tigers, I would have the catchers and coaches sit down with Max and ask him if he feels comfortable throwing more change-ups in 2-strike counts, as so far this year it has been his best strike out pitch. This year hitters have hammered his fastball, and are sitting on his slider. His ticket back to the upper echelon of K% pitchers is his change-up.

Tables compliments of Tableizer!

NL Prospect Primer

And finally, after far too long, here is my take on some of the up n comers for the NL. You can expect some of these guys to be owned already, but I'll try and cover some relative unknowns as well.

Julio Tehran - Atlanta Braves, SP
Thus far in AAA, he is striking out a few less batters in previous years, just 7.8 k/9, but is barely walking anyone either. He sports a BB/9 rate of just 2.5, his best since A+ ball. He has a strong mid 90's four seamer that can touch 96. His curve is above average, and so is his changeup. There have been talks about him tipping pitches, and it is noticable in his arm speed from his four seamer to his changeup. I'd expect him to work out of the 'Pen this year, ala Price for the Rays in 2009. Going into 2012, I suppose you could take a flyer on him, but wait until the 4th tier pitchers start going, unless you're in a keeper league of course. My personal major league comp would be a right handed Ted Lilly. Useful, but not a star. Baseball America loves him, so does BP, but I just don't see it. Not until he refines his delivery will he ever live up to his expectations.

ETA: September call up, breaks camp with Braves in 2012. All keeper leagues should own him. Any redraft you can ignore him til next year.

Devin Mesoraco - Cincinnati Reds, Catcher.
Wow. After his metoric rise in 2010 where he jumped 3 levels A+ to AA to AAA, his stock still continues to rise. Pre-2011, Baseball America had him at 64, with questions about his health and ability to stay behind the dish. So far in 2011, he has caught 69 games, and DH'd another 17. The Red's don't have a DH* and they have some guy named Votto currently manning 1B. I would expect the Reds to hope and pray that Mesoraco can stick behind the plate. With another hot prospect in Yasmani Grandal behind him and hoping to also catch for the big league club, it seems as though Mesoraco has overcome all doubts about his game. In 366 PA, his triple slash is .309/.383/.512. He has 10 homers, and 32, yes, 32 doubles already. As a Catcher. What? He even has 2 triples. With the straight platoon of Hanigan and Hernandez, I figure that Mesoraco won't be up this year, but next year he should break camp with the club and probably sticks there for life. Hernandez doesn't have a contract next year, and Hanigan profiles as a career backup. Call him Weiters 2.0, but this time the sequel is better than the original. Keep an eye on this kid.

*NL should join the 21st century and get the DH already. Pitchers are pitchers, not hitters. Nuff said.

ETA: cup of coffee in September, probably is the Catcher of the future in Cincinnati. A must own in all leagues in 2012.

Pedro Alvarez - Pittsburgh Pirates, OF
Baseball American had him as the 8th best prospect going into the this season? What's happened? Well, what we've seen from Alvarez is right in line with his scouting reports. Prodigious power, pull happy approach, significant uppercut swing. Multiple holes in his swing, struggles against lefty. Figure him Jack Cust, in prospect form. 3 true out comes for this guy sounds about right. He's currently in AAA, but I expect him to be back soon. He's already owned in almost 40% of Yahoo! leagues, which to me, is too high. People are still high on his name value alone. There comes a certain point in which we have to stop believing in prospects. I think this time the scouts proved to be prophetic. They had this guy pegged since A ball. If you own him, sell high on his name. You can pick him up if you're desperate for HR, but expect a big hit in your AVG. On the other hand, if you're in an OPB league, he could be a nice find. I still say to proceed with caution. If he ever fixes his swing, then he could be a significant threat. I think he's just been coasting on pure talent until this year. Which is both a pro and a con, few make it this far on raw talent. If his head matches his body's ability, then I'll be drafting him, until then? I'm staying away.

ETA: Next week? He's working out swing issues in AAA, but I'm not touching this guy. Maybe a top 75 OF next year...maybe. I'll pass, and I reccommend you do too.

Jaff Decker - San Diego Padres, LF
Rated #82 in BA's 2010 picks, he was left off completely in 2011. Scouts judged him to be fat and unathletic, too bad they were only half right. When drafted, yes, he had a little pudge to him, but he has recently slimmed downed. How the scouts ever doubted his athletcisim is beyond me. This guy can flat out hit. He's currently in his first go around in AA and his triple slash .223/.382/.408 says it all. Low average, low contact, high OPB. What this doesn't show is Decker's power. He's got 14 jacks and 16 doubles and even a pair of triples just for fun. He'll never be Matt Holliday, but he's about a dead ringer for Matt Stairs, in body type, hitter profile, and defensive...concern. With almost a 25% BB rate, Decker's pitch recognition and plate discipline is second to none. Not your proto-typical person to make a prospect primer, I nonetheless have my eye on this kid. I think he can produce a .255/.390/.490 at the major league level. What hurts him is scouting stereotypes and his home MLB Park. He would do well to be traded to an AL team. I think he's got 3 seasons of LF in him, then they have to move him to 1B or even DH. Will he hit to compensate the DH penalty? I think this guy has flown under the rader enough that we don't know, but I wouldn't bet against him.

Jarrod Parker - Arizona Diamondbacks, SP
He has been ranked in the top 50 of Baseball America every year from 2008-2011, 46, 29, 36 and 33. What does he have to offer that has scouts so dazzled? After having TJS, he has comeback exquisitely. He's the proto-typical power righty. His 4 seamer still sits in the mid 90's and his slider is rated as plus plus. He had a relatively poor platoon split, but has since refined his changeup and now he resembles nothing but a future ace in the making. He's relatively small, listed at just 6' 1", but really closer to 5' 10" and that is percieved to to force his Tommy John's. His rehab has gone swimmingly, and I really have nothing bad to say about this guy. Call him a strike out pitcher that can give you 6 IP with 7 K's. Durability will always be the question with pitchers of this size, but so far, so good for Parker. He's only in AA, and his walking a few more than I would really like, at 4.6 BB/9, but he has shown stronger control in the past, 3.9 BB/9 pre TJS. If Parker can keep his walks in check, I fully expect him to be in AAA by the end of August, with a probably Spring Training invite come 2012.

ETA: Mid season 2012. You want this kid. Draft him in the later rounds of 2012 if you can afford to bench him.

Shelby Miller - St. Louis Cardinals, SP
BA had him as the pre 2010 #50 prospect, then going into this year, Miller jumped to #13. Why the jump? For the sake of a slightly larger sample size, I'm combining Millers 2011 stats from A+ and AA. He's had 18 starts, 11.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and most impressively, his HR/9 is a microscopic 0.3. He's successfully surpressed the long ball in all 44 minor league starts, as his career MiLB HR/9 is 0.4. Previously, his best pitch, given his 6' 3" size, was unsurprisingly his 4-seamer. He usually sits in the 92-94 range, but this year he has stepped it up to the 97 mph threshold. He also features a low 80's 12-6 bender, and his improved command has reflected in his stock jump 40 slots by Baseball America. His breaking ball now rates as plus. However, most impressively, he has harnessed his changeup to a better degree, and now has a much more effective weapon against lefties. He doesn't give up homers, strikes batters out, and doesn't walk many. I fail to see the downside. Get ahold of him.

ETA: August, 2012. I don't expect him to break camp with the big league boys, but once he arrives, this power righty will be here to stay.

Really, none of these guys have a ton of present value. But looking beyond this season, all of these guys present upside to one degree or another. We all know that fantasy leagues aren't won in the first 5 rounds. They can be lost for sure there, but not won. The winners are the prospect savvy guys that work the waiver wire, reach for prospects in the draft, and sure, pull the occasional trade. I've armed you with more knowledge than most league owners will ever have. All you have to do is take my sound advice and run with it to your fantasy baseball champioship

My trade analysis

Here are my 3 finished trades, and my current pending trade:

March 28
Traded for: Juan Pierre, 2012 8th rounder
Traded away: Seth Smith, 2012 29th rounder
Seeing that my team sorely lacked SB, and needing the scrappy, speedy, leadoff-esque man that every team needs, I traded an 8th Round pick in 2012 and Seth Smith for Juan Pierre. Guess who's dissapointed? This guy.

April 8
Traded for: Youkilis, Tulo, Rios, 26-29 2012 draft picks
Traded away: Scutaro, McClouth, Peralta, 1, 3, 5, 7 2012 draft picks.
I win now, he wins later. Well, thats how it was supposed to go. Rios died, so did Pierre. Youk hit an injury bump but is ok, and Tulo is Tulo. Good trade at the time, poor result. Chalk it up to Unforseen Consequences*

July 7
Traded for: Street, Bailey, 28 and 29 2012 draft picks
Traded away: 11 and 17th round 2012 draft picks
Delusions of granduer struck me and when I awoke, I decided all this team was missing was saves! So I completely stomped on the holy SAGNOF rule, and boned myself next year even more.

Pending, already been accepted trade:
Traded for: D. Hudson, Beachy, Maybin, 29th 2012 draft pick
Traded away: 4th round 2012 draft pick
Fully in re-build (or re-non-fuck-myself-anymore) mode. I decided to do another trade. I'm hoping Beachy is for real, Hudson gets his K's up, and maybe next year I can move these guys again for more picks in 2013. 2012 is dead to me, so I'm kinda like the Mayans that way.

*If you know what video game that level name is from, I will give you a kiss. Here's a hint: Crowbar.

Now of course trades aren't the only way to spice things up in the fantasy world. The Waiver wire/Free Agency is often the cheapest, but leanest way as well, of improving your team. I have made the second most moves in the league this year, 42. Many of those are simple pitching streaming moves, but some have a little more detail. For a change of pace, here's me rewarding myself on a few fantasy baseball moves:

Pitchers that have worked out:
Parnell, Luebke, Rauch, Fister, J. Wright, Crain, Gregerson, Stauffer, Nathan. I still have Parnell, Luebke, Rauch and Nathan on my team to this day. All these guys were performed brilliantly for me in small samples. If only the rest of my team worked out so well...

Hitters that worked out:
J. Weeks, B. Allen, Lucroy, Salty, Bay. It's a little leaner of a list, but all these guys I picked up and hung on to for a bit. I still have Salty, Weeks and Allen on on team...which explains how I'm somehow not winning.

Wavin the white flag

Well, it is now July 23 and I'm finally waving the white flag on my fantasy baseball season.

Hey, at least this happened long after my A's threw in the towel for the real baseball season! And yes, that is more like a gray hair than a silver lining...sure, kick me when I'm down. As any decent sabermatrician will tell you, its more about understanding the process than the bottom line results. Of course, that's also been my line since 2006*, the last time we** were in the playoffs.

*Dear god, has it really been that long? Sheesh. My last hook-up graduated high school in 2010. Hey, its not a crime. Leave me alone. She was 18!

**Yeah, I say "we" when refering to the A's. Deal with it. Actually, you should just be used to it by now. I also say we when talking about Wake Forest, USA soccer, South Korea Soccer and occasionally Man U. So there.

Anyways, I'm here to look at what went wrong in my approach, from an objective and pragmatic view. I want to see what went sideways, why, and how to prevent it the year after next...Yeah I totally burned next year trying to win this year. If this were twitter, then I would be hashtagging this #fail #utterfail #epicfail. You'd get the idea that I was dissapointed or something...

Round - 1 - No pick, due to keeper compensation value
Round - 2 - Adrian Gozalez. Zero complaints
Round - 3 -No pick, compensation
Round - 4 - Ryan Zimmerman. Freak injury. Shit happens.
Round - 5- Jered Weaver. He's been a bit lucky, given his BABIP and HR/9, but I guess the K jump last year wasn't quite for real. Maybe he turns it around for me. I was a beleiver. and paid 3rd round value for 5th round quality. I blame myself.
Round - 6 - Nick Markakis. A reach for a mediocre COFer. Again, my fault. Whats the military say about planning? Every operation is great on paper, then the shooting starts? Well, thats how I feel about fantasy baseball drafts. You're damn right I went there.
Round - 7 - Jonathan Papelbon. I broke my rule. I follow SAGNOF's*. At least I try to after my one premier closer to get me 40. I panicked when the market for closers started to dry up.
Round - 8 - No pick, traded away
Round - 9 - Jonathon Broxton - See 1/4 of an inch above. Both of these are my fault. This error was magnifed by the lens that is closers, injuries, and Broxton throwing his fastball about as "fast" as Moyer.
Round - 10 - Carlos Pena. I actually don't feel bad about this pick. Sure, his OPB is mediocre and he loves to GIDP, but...you know, he hits jacks. And in bunches. So as a CI, he's servicable.
Round - 11 - Rajai Davis. I think I broke my arm reaching for him. Again, I fail to follow SAGNOF and it kills me.
Round - 12 - Yunel Escobar. I love this man. He is great. Sure, people in the MLB think he's an asshole, but who cares? He's still an average defender at SS and his bat plays fantastic there. I'm happy with him.
Round - 13 - Matt Garza. Ok, I have a half-finished blog post about him. His K/9 is great. His FIP and xFIP are also fantastic. His HR/9 rate was in the stratosphere, which is ironic, because it was up there in orbit with some of the dingers he gave up! He has since stablized and been everything you can expect from a 13th round draft pick...medocrity!!
Round - 14 - Jorge Posada. Move along, nothing to see here. Just a dead body under a sheet, er, wearing a baseball uniform. I got angry and dropped him. I gave him 112 ABs and he rewarded my optimism with a .287 OBP. He knocked the cover off the ball in June, though. Of course he did. I'm currently trotting out Salty and Molina...I'm gonna go drink some lighter fluid, cigars, anyone?
Round - 15 - Omar Infante. What can I say, I believed his year last year. And I got burned. This is why I hate the NL. This is eligble in 9 different slots, and sucks at all of them. He lured me in with his damn eligibility. Bastard.
Round - 16 - Nick Swisher, keeper. I love Swish. That is all.
Round - 17 - Rafael Soriano. Yup...I'm just not going to acknowledge this at all. But really, he crushed the AL East as a Ray, then the world turned upside down and he went back to being bad. I hate the Yankees. Except Swisher.
Round - 18 - Daric Barton. Had almost a .400 OBP last year. Currently in AAA. #hurtfeelings
Round - 19 - Ryan Doumit. Hey, he had Catcher eligibility. And zero baseball ability!
Round - 20 - Jhonny Peralta. Drafted him, then swiftly traded him away. Kinda regretting that one...
Round - 21 - Evan Meek. We play a Holds league...stop judging me.
Round - 22 - Sean Marshall. I legitly love this man. He and Castro are my only man-crushes on the Cubs. This guy is fucking great.
Round - 23 - Nate McClouth. I got this far, and realized that I only had Rajai as CF eligible, and he is made of something more delicate than glass. CF insurance.
Round - 24 - Josh Willingham. Drafted em, dropped em. Picked em up off of FA, dropped em. Rinse, repeat.
Round - 25 - Brian Fuentes. The bane of my existence. Evil in LOOGY form. If I could send a Terminator machine back in time, I would to stop Billy Beane from signing this guy. Then I would use my Terminator to make Tony Reagins re-sign Fuentes. Actually, that guy traded for Vernon Wells...he might of signed Fuentes again on his own!
Round - 26 - Marco Scutaro. That offense, that ballpark, SS eligible. For a 26th rounder? Sure, I'll take a LAF**
Round - 27 - Ocatvio Dotel. Well, since Fuentes is the embodiment of crap from the left side, I figured why not get his counter-part from the right side? All things being equal, they have the worst platoon splits of all time! Yay!
Round - 28 - Clay Hensley. Noting a theme there with my late round relievers?
Round - 29 - Edison Volquez. I kept him at thist cost, because even if he was terrible, it didn't cost anything. I was wrong. It cost me multiple starts of putrid rates, sprinkled with a few K's here and there.

*SAGNOF: Steals/Saves Ain't Got No Face, coined by the wonderful fellows at razzball
*LAF = LAte round Flyer. I'm trying it out. Feedback?

I give myself a C+ on the draft. I got a few things right, a few things wrong, and overall left with a team that could not win this year. Thus recognizing this, April 2011 me decided what July 2011 me is currently regretting. I blew all of my valuable draft picks trying to get players to plug in. Thats coming next. Right now, actually.

Your Very Own(able) AL 2nd half Prospects

Mike Trout: Got the call today. Its about time. Oh, to the Majors, not to AAA? Hmm...about that. Anytime a 19 year old gets the call up to the majors, I've skeptical. Put thoughts of Heyward aside, it is exceedingly rare to see such a young player get called up and perform like that. By all accounts he plays a breathtaking CF, and he was toying with AA pitchers to the tune of .324/.415/.534. His BB/K numbers looks strong he's even flashed a little power. MLE translates that to .256/.326/.399 with 6 HR and 22 SB. I'd expect about that, but with a touch more average and OBP. ETA: now!

Desmond Jennings: Currently in AAA. Stickin with the CF theme, lets take a look at one of the most frequently asked prospects. Currently stickin with a .275/.370/.457 line, he's showing some patience and some power. Then again, he's 24, and in his 3rd year of AAA. The Rays are notorious for waiting until their prospects are 100% ready and 100% guaranteed to avoid Super 2 Status. MLE says thats a .232/.313/.374 line in the majors. I don't buy that. I'd expect for Jennings to get up and put more of a .260/.345/.400 line with 20 steals for the rest of the season. He has nothing left to prove. ETA: next week?

Brett Lawrie: .354/.415/.677 that line is PCL inflated, then further inflated from his launching pad of a home park. I'm not totally convinced that he'll stay at 2B for his career and Toronto seems to agree that 3B is more likely, but when he gets the call, I would expect this right hander with power to fit right in at the Rogers Center. Strike outs are a bit of a red flag for me, but his power is pretty legit, I would guess 25 over the course of a full season given that home park, and 20 steals wouldn't be unheard of for him. Snap him up. ETA: With Bautista now playing 3B, I would assume they would call up Lawrie soon and move Joey Bats back to RF. Call it August 1st.

Matt Moore: I drool when I think of him. I already own him in one of my keeper leagues, and fully intend to hang on to this boy for the rest of his natural life. He's crushing the feeble AA hitters presented to him right now and sports a .90 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 and miniscule 2.4 BB/9. He's faced 374 batter and fanned 125 of the poor guys. He works with a low to mid 90's heater, a plus-plus curveball and a slightly above average change-up. My only worry is his "unconventional" mechanics, but the jury is still out on what works and what doesn't for pitchers. He has a no hitter this year. He saved my sisters cat from a fire. He can make pancakes appear out of thin air. I am in luhhhh. And not just because my last love was also named Moore...as in Mandy. But I digress. I'd expect him to get a cup of coffee in September, but nothing before that. If you're in a keeper league, pounce on this boy the way 15 year old me wanted to pounce on Mandy Moore.

Stay tuned for your NL prospects tomorrow